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On the morning of Oct. 10, the Texas Longhorns were 4-0, ranked No. 1 in the country, and had the most impressive win of any team in the country on their resume.
There were some signs that Texas’ success was smoke and mirrors, but the Longhorns were still a decided favorite over Oklahoma in the annual Red River Showdown that day.
Two losses later, and the Longhorns are now No. 19 in the country and are +125 underdogs to make the College Football Playoff.
Another defeat would almost certainly end any hope that Texas had of getting into the dance, and they’ve got quite the gauntlet to run down the stretch, starting with a visit from No. 7 Ole Miss on Saturday.
Texas is a 3.5-point favorite over the Rebels.
From a pure talent perspective, Texas has one of the best rosters in the country. They’re loaded. No doubt about it. However, this is now the second year in a row where that skill hasn’t translated into the expected results.
Arch Manning, the preseason Heisman favorite the past two years, wears some of that burden, but heat is starting to fall on the shoulders of head coach Steve Sarkisian, who was the toast of Austin 15 months ago.
There are murmurs of discontent in the Texas camp, and it’s hard to ignore them given how things are going on the field, especially with the offense.
The truth is that the warning signs were blinking red for Texas before the losing streak and the subsequent rumors about Sarkisian’s rapidly-frosting relationship with Manning.
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The offense, which was supposed to be a juggernaut, was stalling out, and, for the second year in a row, spoiling the work of an elite defense.
Perhaps the losses to Oklahoma and Florida are rock bottom for Texas, but it’s really hard to trust that the Longhorns can just snap their fingers and pull themselves out of this mess, especially against a strong opponent like Ole Miss.
The Pick: Ole Miss +3.5 (-118, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.