Nearly 2.3 billion SpaceX’s (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares held by employees and early investors have become eligible for trading since early August through a series of unlocks. As the company has continued to advance as new shares became eligible for trade, we asked ChatGPT to predict SpaceX stock price after the upcoming October 24 unlock event.
According to the chatbot, SpaceX shares will likely face renewed selling pressure after the October 24 lockup expiration, with a base-case forecast pointing to a price range of $145 to $155 in the first trading sessions following the unlock. The figure suggests a downside of anywhere between 1% and 7.4% from the last closing price of $156.54.
In a more bullish scenario, the stock could land in the $155-$170 zone, which implies an upside of up to 8.6%. Conversely, a bearish development would send the shares back to somewhere between $130 and $145, which would be a decline of up to 16.9%.
How SpaceX stock has reacted to share unlocks
Approximately 328.4 million shares are reportedly set to become eligible for sale on October 24, potentially adding to the supply available on the market. By comparison, the company sold 639 million shares during its June initial public offering (IPO).
However, the unlock does not automatically mean that all eligible shares will be sold. The actual market impact will depend on how many employees and early investors decide to cash out, how much demand is available to absorb the additional supply, and whether traders have already priced in the event.
Historically, though, SpaceX shares have overall climbed despite the substantial increase in potential supply. Indeed, the current price of $156.54 is 45% higher than $108 recorded on August 5, the day before the first major release. Of course, numbers alone are not sufficient to predict another rally by October 24, as August 5 also followed the company’s first earnings report, after which shares fell nearly 15%.
The first and largest release occurred on August 6, when up to 911.5 million shares became eligible for trading. SpaceX stock gained approximately 6% that day. However, two subsequent releases of up to 319 million shares on August 20 and September 9 each coincided with declines of roughly 4%.
A smaller batch of up to 59.1 million shares held by company affiliates became eligible on September 10. This was followed by releases of up to 328.4 million shares on September 24 and October 9. The stock gained around 0.5% on the first, slipped 0.2% on the second, and advanced roughly 1% on the third date.
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