Maybe the biggest surprise in the NFL this season is the woeful start by the Los Angeles Chargers (0-5). It gets no easier for Jim Harbaugh and co. this weekend when they travel to Kansas City to take on the undefeated and rested Chiefs (4-0). Coming off their bye, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs put their undefeated record on the line against a Chargers’ team many had pegged in the preseason as at the very least a playoff team if not a Super Bowl contender.
The Chargers are coming off a 23-17 home loss to the Broncos, their fifth straight defeat. Quarterback Justin Herbert is not the only issue, but he is certainly the posterchild for the woeful Chargers. The veteran quarterback is completing just 59.4% of his passes and thrown for just 187 yards per game including seven interceptions to just five touchdowns. Kansas City, meanwhile, enters the game following a 30-27 victory over the Raiders a couple weeks ago. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is healthy and playing at an MVP-caliber level throwing for 1,037 yards, nine touchdowns, and just two interceptions.
That is the headline in this game: the difference in quarterback play between these teams. Herbert still possesses one of the NFL’s strongest arms, but he needs to be better which probably requires more help from the likes of running back Omarion Hampton (271 rushing yards and averaging 3.7 yards per carry). The supporting cast on the other sideline is far better led by Kenneth Walker III who is averaging over six yards per carry and a total of 537 yards through five games.
These division rivals have seen the Chiefs control this series over the years. That said, the most recent meeting went the Chargers’ way back on December 14, 2025. In that game, Los Angeles earned a 16-13 victory. The Chiefs escaped with a 19-17 win in the season opener last year.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, October 18, 2026
- Time: 4:25PM ET
- Site: Arrowhead Stadium
- City: Kansas City, MO
- TV/Streaming: CBS
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Latest Game Odd: Chargers vs. Chiefs
The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Los Angeles Chargers (+295), Kansas City Chiefs (-375)
- Spread: Chiefs -8.5
- Total: 42.5
The combination of Mahomes’ return to elite form and the Chargers’ struggles have pushed this line heavily in favor of the Chiefs. The line opened with KC favored by 2.5. The Total has dropped from its starting point of 46.5.
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Expert Picks & Predictions: Chargers vs. Chiefs
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the Chargers and the Chiefs:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Chargers +8.5.
- Total: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 42.5.
Here’s why the Chargers +8.5 is the best bet:
The Chiefs have failed consistently to get to the quarterback this season. They rank 29th in sack rate, 28th in quarterback hit rate, and 29th in pressure rate. While the Chargers have struggled overall, their defense has succeeded in getting into opposing backfields. LA ranks 10th in sack rate, 4th in quarterback hit rate, and 10th in pressure rate. The last ten games in this series have produced an average margin of just 2.1 points. Kansas City is 5-8 ATS after the bye under Mahomes and 18-22 ATS with the rest advantage. The Chargers are 0-5 but have faced the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL and have been competitive in every game
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Chargers vs. Chiefs: Betting Trends and Stats
- The Chargers are 0-4-1 against the spread this season
- The Chiefs are 2-2 against the spread this season
- LA is 1-4 to the OVER this season
- KC is 2-2 to the OVER this season
Quarterback Matchup: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Chargers: Justin Herbert
2026 Statistics: 5GP, 937 Passing Yards, 5 TDs, 7 INTs, 70.2 RTG, Sacked 17 times - Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 1037 Passing Yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs, 106.2 RTG, Sacked 6 times
Chargers vs. Chiefs: Top Playmakers
Chargers
- RB Omarion Hampton
2026 Statistics: 5GP, 73 carries for 271 Yds, 3 TDs / 5 receptions on 6 targets for 35 Yds, 0 TDs - WR Ladd McConkey
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 12 receptions on 17 targets for 183 Yds, 1 TD - TE Oronde Gadsden
2026 Statistics: 5GP, 9 receptions on 16 targets for 86 Yds, 1 TD
Chiefs
- RB Kenneth Walker III
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 87 carries for 537 Yds, 4 TDs / 12 receptions on 19 targets for 84 Yds, 2 TDs - WR Xavier Worthy
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 14 receptions on 22 targets for 133 Yds, 1 TD - TE Travis Kelce
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 16 receptions on 23 targets for 246 Yds, 2 TDs
Chargers vs. Chiefs: Injury Update
Chargers
- WR Ladd McConkey (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- WR Quentin Johnston (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- WR Tre’ Harris (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- WR Brennen Thompson (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- OT Joe Alt (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- OG Kayode Awosika (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Bud Dupree (neck) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- S Derwin James Jr. (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Donte Jackson (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Rodney Shelley (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
Chiefs
- WR Rashee Rice (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for this Sunday’s game
- WR Tyquan Thornton (ankle) was place on the IR Monday and is OUT for Sunday’s game
- LT Josh Simmons (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for this Sunday’s game
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