Give Kia some credit for trying to shake off the "box-on-wheels" vibes that usually come with minivans. When introduced for the 2022 model year, the Carnival wrapped its minivan functionality in more SUV-like clothing, with an elongated profile and less-visible sliding doors. Kia even adopted the multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) moniker to hide the Carnival's minivan image further. And if speed matters, the Carnival is also the fastest minivan among current production models.
With new Carnivals starting near $40,000, buying used can save money, especially if you go for the 2022 model year. Going this route can shave about 35% off the original MSRP. You'll have three rows of family transportation for well under $30,000. We'll drill into the numbers using depreciation figures from CarEdge and Kelley Blue Book (KBB), and look at real-world pricing from Autotrader. If you have a used minivan on your shopping list, but aren't quite sold on a 2022 Kia Carnival, we'll look at depreciation and pricing for the competition. In the limited minivan world, that means the Chrysler Pacifica, Honda Odyssey, and Toyota Sienna. All MSRPs mentioned here include factory destination charges.
Depreciation for the Kia Carnival
Figuring out the depreciation for an almost four-year-old Carnival isn't an exact science, but CarEdge uses the site's current market pricing rather than educated guesses. Based on an average new price of $41,710 and a current price of $26,241, the Carnival's four-year depreciation works out to 37.1% since 2022. Among the 2022-through-2025 model years, CarEdge advises that the 2022 Carnival is the best buy thanks to favorable pricing and its relative newness. That creates a potential sweet spot if you embrace the idea that minivans are cool.
KBB also uses market-based pricing. For the Carinaval's base LX trim, its original MSRP of $33,635 translates to a residual value of $21,400 today, or about 63.6%. That 36.3% depreciation almost matches CarEdge's estimate. However, just because these different numbers align doesn't mean the marketplace agrees. Dealer listings for a 2022 Carnival LX with average mileage (around 55,000 miles, give or take) and a clean history with no accidents or title issues hover around $25,000 – the equivalent of a 25.7% depreciation rate, and far below what CarEdge and KBB say. There's no clear explanation for the contrast, but CarGurus reports that used minivan prices have increased by 4.78% over the past year, compared with 1.63% for all used cars.
Comparing the Kia Carnival's depreciation against its competitors
If you want to maximize depreciation with a used minivan purchase, the Chrysler Pacifica may be a better target. CarEdge's market pricing says that a 2022 Pacifica that was priced at $50,831 when new is now worth $24,814 — a 51.2% depreciation rate in the last four years. KBB's numbers aren't radically different, either. The base Touring trim, which had an original MSRP of $38,690, depreciated by 50%, leaving a nationwide fair purchase price of $19,200 today. Like the Carnival, the Pacifica's marketplace pricing also doesn't quite match the estimates. Sites like CarGurus have the most affordable 2022 Pacifica Touring models listed in the $22,000 to $24,000 range, reflecting a 38% to 43.1% depreciation.
The 2022 Honda Odyssey follows a similar pattern to the Kia Carnival. CarEdge's average new price estimate of $43,744 for the Odyssey becomes $29,537 after four years of depreciation. That's a 32.5% loss. Meanwhile, KBB calculates that the base LX trim, with an original MSRP of $34,335, now has a fair purchase price of $22,300, which marks a 33.6% decline in value. The lower-end LX and EX editions are harder to find on dealer lots, so we'll look at the mid-grade EX-L. When new, that grade sold for $41,005. Used examples are on the market for an average of about $30,000. That works out to roughly 26.8% depreciation in the last four to five years.
Depreciation takes a strange turn with the 2022 Toyota Sienna, and not in a good way for buyers. Despite optimistic depreciation rates from CarEdge (24.7%) and KBB (8.5%), the marketplace for used 2022 Siennas is topsy-turvy. Let's look at the LE trim, which had an MSRP of $36,460. Examples with average mileage and in good condition are often listed near or above its past sticker price. In this case, we're talking about appreciation, not depreciation. At least the Sienna earns bragging rights as the best-performing minivan in IIHS safety testing.