More than 9.1 million Brits may need to use a food bank by 2029, charity warns

Record levels of people in the UK could be at risk of needing to use a food bank by the end of this parliament, according to charity analysis.

Trussell’s modelling estimated that more than 9.1 million people could be in this position in the year to March 2029, as the charity said cost of living has “continued to bite for people on the lowest incomes” in recent years.

The anti-poverty charity said projections by WPI Economics are based on Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts on average earnings growth, forecasts on social security payments, and on rent payments.

The modelling also takes into account policies such as the Labour Government’s removal of the two-child benefit limit from last April, as well as the uprating of universal credit.

The 9.1 million projection for 2028/29 – potentially surpassing the previous record high of 9.07 million in 2025/26 – would be made up of an estimated 6.2 million adults and 2.9 million children, Trussell said.

Projected estimates for the year to March 2027 are just under nine million people being in “severe hardship” and, therefore, at risk of needing to use a food bank, followed by a little over nine million for the 12 months to March 2028.

Trussell’s severe hardship data goes back to 2022/23 when there were 8.2 million people in that situation.

Trussell said: “If 9.1 million people experience severe hardship in 2028/29 this would put the number of people at risk of needing to use a food bank at record levels, according to the available data.”

Earlier this year, Trussell reported a 12% drop in the total food parcel numbers in 2025 compared with 2024, which it said was had reflected a “slowdown in the rising cost of essentials – alongside fewer people losing their jobs”.

But Trussell’s director of policy and research Helen Barnard said while pressure eased a little for some families when the “especially sharp price spikes seen in 2022 came down”, inflation remaining high has meant “more and more people since 2024/25 are finding it difficult to afford the essentials”.

She added: “Rising costs in the coming months, especially for energy, are likely to mean more people will find it difficult to afford essentials like food and heating.

“People just a few streets over from you are sitting in the dark to save electricity, skipping meals so their kids can eat, feeling invisible and alone as they try to get by for weeks and weeks without any support.”

Referring to next week’s Budget, she added: “The Prime Minister must renew Labour’s manifesto promise to end the need for emergency food, start strong in his first Budget, and make this a measurable goal for his government’s ten-year plan to raise living standards.”

Meanwhile, separate research has suggested the collective wellbeing – looking at how society, economy, environment and democracy work together to support people and communities – of people across the UK declined over the past year.

A Life In The UK Index showed the first statistically significant fall in collective wellbeing recorded since the survey began in 2023.

A survey of 6,731 people by Carnegie UK recorded an overall collective wellbeing score of 61 out of 100, down from 62 in 2025.

This included declines in social and economic wellbeing scores and no improvement when it came to environment or democratic wellbeing.

Sarah Davidson, chief executive of Carnegie UK, said: “People understand that the UK’s biggest challenges will take time and effort to address. But this research shows that our current approach is not yet making systematic improvements to collective wellbeing, and that too many people continue to experience unacceptably difficult lives.

“Governments need to look beyond blunt economic statistics and judge their success using evidence about whether people’s lives are actually improving. Decision-makers then need to put this information at the centre of their plans for the future.”

The Government has been contacted for comment.