With Thursday's 3–2 win over the Rays, the Guardians are just two wins away from a trip to the World Series, currently up 2–1 over Tampa Bay in the ALCS. Their pitching has been outstanding throughout the series, shutting down some of the most important cogs in Tampa’s lineup.
The Rays’ “big three” of Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda haven’t been able to get the bats going through the series' first three games. They’ve combined to go 5-for-34 (.147) at the plate, with just one RBI, two extra-base hits and 13 strikeouts. That trio had 10 hits in Tampa’s sweep of the Yankees, but their bats have gone cold in the ALCS.
In Game 3, they combined to go 1-for-12 with seven strikeouts. Aranda went hitless for the third straight contest and is still seeking his first base hit of the series. After not striking out a single time in the ALDS, he was sat down on strikes twice by Gavin Williams and didn’t put up a competitive at-bat throughout the game. Caminero had the worst postseason performance of his career, striking out in all four of his at-bats. He’d previously had just one postseason game with multiple strikeouts in his career, but he earned the undesirable platinum sombrero at the plate on Thursday. Díaz was the lone player of the trio to record a hit. He got on base against Gavin Williams and came around to score after Chandler Simpson hit a two-run triple, but later struck out in a crucial spot with the tying run on third base in the eighth inning against Cleveland’s closer Cade Smith.
Caminero, Aranda and Díaz combined for nearly 40% of the Rays’ total RBIs and more than half of the team’s home runs throughout the regular season. Caminero led the team with 101 RBIs, along with 42 home runs. Aranda provided 22 home runs and 92 RBIs, both career bests, and Díaz had 22 homers and a career-high 85 RBIs. No other player on the roster had more than 57 RBIs or 15 home runs during the campaign, which serves as an indication of just how heavily the team’s offense relied on the production of those three players.
Thus far into the ALCS, with the heart of their lineup struggling to get going, the Rays’ offense has faltered. Tampa has just eight runs through three games in the series, and three of those runs came after a costly error from José Ramirez in Game 2. The Guardians have attacked Caminero, Aranda and Díaz on the mound, going right after them as opposed to pitching around them. Three of Caminero’s four strikeouts on Thursday came from fastballs above the zone. It was just the second time in his career that he’d struck out four times in a game. He hit 23 home runs against fastballs during the regular season, but that didn’t stop Cleveland from using that same pitch to attack him on Thursday, and that bold approach paid off in a big way.
Cleveland’s starters have been highly effective. They’ve surrendered just four earned runs in the series––two from Foster Griffin in Game 1 and two from Williams in Game 3, while Parker Messick surrendered three unearned runs in Game 2. Stephen Vogt’s decision to remove Williams after five solid innings raised some eyebrows, but he had faith in the bullpen, which shut the door on the Rays on Thursday. The unit has given up one earned run across 12 innings in relief during the ALCS, giving the Guardians a fighting chance when they’re behind, and helping to shut the door on the Rays when they have a lead.
The Rays posted the lowest strikeout rate (18.8%) in the league during the regular season. Guardians pitchers recorded 13 strikeouts against Tampa on Thursday and have 28 Ks throughout the first three games of the series. The Rays struck out just 18 times in their three-game sweep of the Yankees, but have had a much harder time of making contact against Cleveland.
If the Guardians can continue to shut down the Rays’ big three, it’ll be extremely difficult for Tampa to mount a comeback. The Rays have gotten solid contributions from some of their other hitters, such as Simpson and Liam Hicks, but this is an offense that largely revolves around the success of Caminero, Aranda and Díaz, and for those three, success has been hard to come by.
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