It IS too early to know who Arch Manning will become. His uncle, Eli, is a reminder.
As a junior at Ole Miss, Eli threw 15 interceptions and ranked 45th in college football in quarterback rating. As a fourth-year NFL starter, he tied for the most interceptions in the league and had never won a playoff game before one of the most improbable title runs of all time.
In Arch’s first season as a starter, he led Texas to 10 wins — including three over top 10 teams — producing 19 total touchdowns and two interceptions in the final six games of the season.
The talent that allowed him to guide a comeback win over Ohio State hasn’t left, but his confidence, poise and awareness have vanished in the past month.
Back-to-back upsets were sealed by Manning’s three fourth-quarter turnovers. Texas was in position for losses that never should have happened because of an offense that ranks 89th in the nation in yards per play (5.2), led by a fourth-year quarterback averaging under 200 yards passing in his past five games.
Before Manning was the nation’s top high school recruit, Trinidad Chambliss was a zero-star prospect who didn’t receive any FBS scholarship offers. He ended up at Division II Ferris State, where he won two national championships, then became the backup at Ole Miss.
Only after an injury to Austin Simmons did the Rebels stumble into the most dynamic quarterback in the country, who then led them to within two wins of a national championship.
When this season began, Manning and Chambliss were two of the top three Heisman favorites. The Ole Miss superstar remains in the same position — Manning now holds 300/1 odds — leading a top 10 offense to 37.5 points per game
Who would choose the chosen one now? Who would bet against the player who has willed himself into a future first-round pick?
Who would even think of giving points to Ole Miss (+3.5)?
MIAMI (-20.5) over Pittsburgh
The Panthers have lost back-to-back games since Pat Narduzzi’s latest unbecoming rant — “We’ve got a hell of a football team. Now any of those voters out there, if they wake their a–es up, they might figure that out” — and brings the nation’s 122nd-ranked pass defense to a matchup against Heisman candidate Darian Mensah. Last November, Pittsburgh lost 38-7 at Miami.
Indiana (-7) over MICHIGAN
It doesn’t matter who the Wolverines put under center. The Big House has had almost no impact this season and their second-ranked defense has been propped up by a series of weak opposing offenses (ranked 123rd, 114th, 137th, 85th, 57th and 116th in the nation).
After Curt Cignetti’s most recent regular-season loss, the Hoosiers responded with a 66-0 beatdown of Purdue. Following his only regular-season loss in 2023, James Madison won by 42.
CINCINNATI (+10.5) over Texas Tech
The Red Raiders defense has forced more than two turnovers per game, but the Bearcats are tied for fifth in the nation in fewest giveaways per game, thanks to senior JC French IV, who hasn’t thrown an interception — and is completing over 70 percent of his passes — in his first year in Cincy. I wonder where Brendan Sorsby will be watching.
LSU (-7.5) over AUBURN
Even if Auburn wasn’t coming down from the high of its upset over top-ranked Georgia, LSU’s talent would overwhelm the hosts in a must-win game for Lane Kiffin’s group, which leads the SEC in total offense and total defense. LSU is second in the nation in sacks per game (3.9). Auburn allows the seventh-highest sack percentage (10.7).
California (+19.5) over SMU
A classic ACC encounter and a puzzling line. Excluding a matchup with FCS Cal Poly, none of the Mustangs’ seven most recent games — dating back to a loss against Cal last season — have been decided by more than 10 points despite five matchups against unranked teams in that span. SMU is 0-2 as a double-digit favorite against the spread this season.
ILLINOIS (+8.5) over Oregon
The Ducks’ underwhelming campaign continues with a long trip, uncertainty at quarterback and the recent arrest of star receiver Evan Stewart. The Illini are coming off a bye and are 7-3 against the spread as a double-digit underdog under Bret Bielema.
UCF (+6.5) over BYU
The Cougars are an obvious letdown candidate, traveling more than 2,300 miles after pulling off their biggest win in decades.
The Knights (3-0 at home, 3-1 against the spread as an underdog) are well rested, have a top 25 run defense and made a pair of ranked opponents (Houston, Oklahoma State) sweat in back-to-back games.
Michigan State (+13.5) over UCLA
The undefeated Bruins’ ceiling remains capped by the season-ending injury to Nico Iamaleava. UCLA has averaged four points per quarter since he went down.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-2.5) over Tennessee
Look beyond the Vols’ upset of Alabama and you’ll find a team that nearly lost to 13th-place Arkansas and Auburn, and cannot trust quarterback George MacIntyre, who has thrown for one touchdown and three interceptions in two career starts.
Meanwhile, LaNorris Sellers is returning to NFL radars after leading the Gamecocks to a convincing win at Florida and an overtime loss to No. 12 Kentucky while producing seven total touchdowns, no interceptions and 167 total rushing yards.
ALABAMA (-13.5) over Texas A&M
To paraphrase Anthony Soprano: If Marcel Reed regresses any further, he’ll be back in the womb. The senior quarterback has nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns this season, is completing under 45 percent of his passes on the road, is leading an offense that ranks 125th in the nation in yards per play and has scored a total of 12 points in two SEC road games.
Iowa (-6.5) over MINNESOTA
The Hawkeyes — who are coming off a bye and have won the past two meetings by a combined score of 72-17 — have handled their business on the road, winning at Michigan and Washington. Kirk Ferentz — who is 8-1 all-time against Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck — hasn’t lost in Minneapolis since 2014.
KENTUCKY (-10.5) over Vanderbilt
The first-place Wildcats have won five straight games, going 6-1 against the spread this season. A primetime kickoff will produce an electric crowd for this unlikely playoff contender, but a nightmare for Vanderbilt’s 92nd-ranked defense and freshman quarterback Jared Curtis, who has two touchdowns and five interceptions in SEC play.
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
- Check out the best sports betting sites and apps
USC (-3) over WISCONSIN
The Trojans have already survived two cross-country trips, including a Penn State whiteout win in front of 114,000-plus. The Badgers — who are averaging less than 19 points against power conference teams — don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Lincoln Riley attack, which is coming off a bye and averaging more than 36 points per game.
Houston (+6.5) over UTAH
Last season, the Utes went 11-2, losing their only two games against ranked teams. This season, they’ve jumped out to a 6-0 start by playing the easiest schedule of any power conference team. The No. 14 Cougars could pull the outright upset, led by Conner Weigman, who has thrown 11 touchdowns and no interceptions in three road games, including a near-upset at Texas Tech.
Best bets: Kentucky, Usc, Houston
This season: 60-45 (15-6 best bets)