Why Quick Start Is Biggest Key for MSU vs. Northwestern

Michigan State is falling behind too quickly these days.

The Spartans are on a four-game losing streak to open up their schedule against Power Four opponents, and one reason for that has been slow starts. That cannot happen against No. 25 Northwestern on Saturday if MSU wants to pull off a big upset victory.

MSU's Poor First Quarters

Michigan State has been trailing at the end of the first quarter in each of its four games against P4 competition so far. MSU has been down by 10 points or more in three of those games. During the first quarter, Michigan State has been outscored 41-3 against Notre Dame, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Illinois.

The only time the Spartans have led during their losing streak was a 3-0 advantage against Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers scored a touchdown on the very next drive. Michigan State's offense hasn't taken a snap with the lead since its last victory against Eastern Michigan in Week 2.

MSU isn't remotely a team built to come from behind. The Spartans' passing attack has struggled to generate explosive plays for most of the year. It's only generated 10 plays of 20+ yards midway through the season, which is tied with Texas A&M for the fewest among Power Four teams. The median in the FBS is 18 such plays.

Pat Fitzgerald football is usually not built in a way that overcomes larger deficits in general, even if it did overcome a 17-point deficit against Illinois last week. Michigan State is a run-first team that wants to control the time of possession as much as it can. No offense is at its best when it's forced to pass, but this one especially isn't with a quarterback in Alessio Milivojevic, who has been hesitant to push the ball downfield at times this season, and with a WR corps that lacks a big playmaker.

Opening Drives

The opening drive of this one will also be important. Michigan State hasn't scored on its opening possession in five consecutive games. Against P4 opponents, the Spartans' first drive has ended with a three-and-out and a blocked punt at Notre Dame, a punt vs. Nebraska, a turnover on downs at Wisconsin, and a three-and-out and a punt vs. Illinois.

With how short-handed MSU is defensively due to injuries, the Spartans cannot afford the offense to take three drives to get its feet set. By that time, it might be 10-0 or 17-0 in favor of the opponent again. Michigan State cannot win a shootout, either, but it definitely needs an early drive to feel good about in this one.