Formula One heads to Austin this weekend with Max Verstappen looking for a hat-trick of wins while Kimi Antonelli is within touching distance of a first world championship.
Circuit of the Americas combines fast flowing corners with heavy braking zones and a long back straight. It asks a great deal of both car and driver.
This weekend, track temperatures are expected to climb above 55°C which puts tyre wear firmly in the spotlight. The drivers who manage their rubber best should be the ones fighting at the front.
Our power rankings measure who will arrive in Austin in the best shape. We take into account recent form, raw speed, how much each driver extracts from their car, momentum and how well their strengths might suit the Circuit of the Americas.
Here are our top 10 rankings and predictions for the race.
Kimi's Austin mission is as follows... 😮💨
— Formula 1 (@F1) October 21, 2026
Here is how he could claim the Drivers' Championship this weekend! 👀#F1 #USGP pic.twitter.com/cTS7HSRKbV
10. Nico Hulkenberg (Audi)
Form: Bahrain P11, Singapore P8. Championship: P14
Singapore was Hulkenberg’s most productive weekend of the season. He took P7 in the sprint and P8 in the race where he spent the closing laps resisting a much quicker George Russell.
Audi believes recent work on the car is beginning to pay off, although Hulkenberg was quick to temper expectations. The Circuit of the Americas will tell us if their progress is genuine and worthy of excitement.
9. Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
Form: Bahrain P6, Singapore P5. Championship: P7
Successive top six finishes have steadied him after a difficult period. He should have left Singapore with more but the McLarens collided on the final lap of the sprint which ended his race and led to internal talks within the team.
McLaren chief executive Zak Brown believes Piastri is recovering his confidence and the driver looks like himself again. McLaren is bringing small floor changes to Austin alongside work aimed at improving braking, something that ought to help the Australian in Texas.
8. Isack Hadjar (Red Bull)
Form: Bahrain P5, Singapore P10. Championship: P8
Hadjar’s Singapore result deserves an asterisk. His weekend was wrecked by a succession of technical problems, including power-unit and gearbox issues. He eventually started from the pit lane and yet he still recovered to P10.
Laurent Mekies admitted Red Bull “owe him one” after failing to give the French-Algerian driver a proper chance to show his pace. RB22 car has progressed immensely well so Hadjar ought to have a good weekend.
Admiring the COTA scenery 😍💨#F1 #USGP pic.twitter.com/OXjQusBKlM
— Formula 1 (@F1) October 22, 2026
7. Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls)
Form: Bahrain P7, Singapore P7. Championship: P9
Lawson is now one of the most dependable drivers on the grid. Two successive P7 finishes and P5 in Singapore’s Sprint race, Lawson is collecting points.
With his 2027 future still undecided, the New Zealander is making his case on track. He has now finished ahead of Lindblad in 10 of their 14 Grands Prix together. Can he keep his seat?
6. Lando Norris (McLaren)
Form: Bahrain P9, Singapore P4. Championship: P6
Singapore dented Norris’ momentum after the Sprint clash with Oscar Piastri cost McLaren points and promoted internal talks. His pace is still strong but questions must be asked about his decision making. McLaren has drawn a line under the crash but the British river will head to Austin with a lot to prove.
5. George Russell (Mercedes)
Form: Bahrain DNF, Singapore P9. Championship: P2
Russell continues in his unlucky streak. He was heading towards taking P3 in Sepang when his engine failed and he was forced to retire. That forced him into a huge power-unit penalty in Singapore where he started 19th and recovered to P9.
Reliability issues continue to haunt the driver and Toto Wolff admitted, “Malaysia and Singapore were difficult weekends for us and we have worked hard to understand where we fell short.” Both Mercedes drivers will be driving the latest specification cars and Russell will hope lady luck will be on his side in Texas.
Six winners in 2026. Six still left in the fight.
— Formula 1 (@F1) October 19, 2026
Can anyone hunt down Kimi? 🎯#F1 #USGP pic.twitter.com/LwnEKW0ScR
4. Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
Form: Bahrain P3, Singapore P6. Championship: P3
He finished second in the Sprint and qualified P3 for the Singapore GP but Sunday didn’t go as planned. Hamilton missed Ferrari’s pit entry under the virtual safety car, stayed out and endured until his ageing tyres surrendered three positions late on. “Sorry, boys. I let you down today with that strategy. My call, and I lost us valuable points.”
Ferrari brings a new floor to Austin designed to give the SF-26 car a wider operating window. Hamilton’s five victories at this track should stand him in good stead.
3. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
Form: Bahrain P4, Singapore P2. Championship: P5
Leclerc finally escaped his run of fourth places with a superb second in Singapore. He attacked Verstappen at the start and briefly looked capable of truly challenging before the Red Bull pulled clear. It was a throwback to 2022 but the truth is, as Leclerc admitted, the Ferrari lacks the pace.
Ferrari’s new upgrade is the last big one of the season and the new floor should help the team generate more consistent aerodynamic load allowing for better balance.
2. Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
Form: Bahrain P2, Singapore P3. Championship: P1
Despite Mercedes’ problems, Antonelli always finds a way of fighting at the top. He battled braking problems throughout a difficult Singapore race but he recovered well on fresh tyres to pass Norris and Hamilton for P3.
Antonelli now has 14 podiums from 17 races and leads Russell by 102 points. Victory in Texas could give him the chance to seal the title this weekend if other results go his way.
Verstappen wins Bahrain GP – in pictures
1. Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
Form: Bahrain P1, Singapore P1. Championship: P4
Verstappen has gone from chasing his first victory of the season to looking like the favourite for every upcoming race.
He followed his win in Malaysia with a clean-sweep in Singapore, taking Sprint pole and victory before repeating the feat in the GP. It was his first win at Marina Bay in 10 attempts.
Red Bull’s progress is now clear, and the car now looks to be the best on the grid. Verstappen has always done well in this circuit and will be gunning for a third successive victory to stop Antonelli winning the championship.
Austin podium prediction:
1. Max Verstappen
Two consecutive victories, it’s virtually impossible to stop the Dutchman when he finds momentum. He has now looked competitive across several circuit types and he knows how to win in the Circuit of the Americas
2. Kimi Antonelli
He could win it all in Texas and the youngster will be challenging himself to win this race. The team now understands its latest upgrade better and will hope to avoid any reliability issues.
3. Charles Leclerc
After managing a strong result in Singapore, the latest upgrade should help Leclerc to challenge once again. He won in Austin in 2024 and will hope to manage at least a podium finish this Sunday.