Global manufacturers increased their purchases of components and raw materials in September as demand swelled. At the same time, though, supply pressures have intensified, according to researchers at S&P Global and GEP, who produce the monthly GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index.
The index covers 40 countries and around 27,000 companies. The index is a weighted sum of six sub-indices that are derived from Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, PMI comments trackers and PMI commodity price and supply indicators that are compiled by S&P Global.
“Global input demand growth rose to its strongest since May and was close to its 2026 high, signaling firmer manufacturing activity heading into the fourth quarter,” the report’s authors said. “Purchasing strengthened across North America, Asia and Europe, with particularly strong increases in the United States, Germany, Taiwan and South Korea.”
The researchers said shortages increased for the first time since May, while global transportation costs also rose. “Shortages of oil and oil-based products were particularly acute, creating renewed cost and availability pressures for manufacturers,” the report noted.
“Manufacturers are buying more because demand is strengthening, but they’re doing so at a time when shortages and transportation costs are starting to rise again,” said John Piatek, vice president, GEP Consulting. “For companies, that means the priority shifts from simply protecting inventory to securing supply and controlling costs. If demand continues to build through the fourth quarter, businesses that wait will face tighter availability and higher input costs.”
By region, the index readings were mixed. In Asia, the index increased to 1.49 from 1.24, signaling a three-month high, “as stronger demand from Asian factories coincided with tighter supply conditions,” the report stated. In North America, the index climbed to 1.13 from 0.87, marking its highest level since June, and was driven by a resurgence in the U.S. manufacturing economy.
Europe, however, dropped significantly to 0.66 from 1.27, “indicating the lowest level of supply chain disruption across the continent since March.” In the U.K., the index also fell, coming in at 0.59 from 1.10 in August as manufacturers in the country pared back stockpiling activity, alleviating supply pressure.
Regarding demand, the report’s authors said global manufacturers bought more raw materials, commodities and components in September. “In fact, the rate of growth rose to a four-month high and was close to its 2026 high, reflecting stronger buying activity across many large industrial players such as the U.S., Germany, South Korea and Taiwan,” the report’s authors said, adding that with inventories, there were reports of safety buffers being added to inventories having dropped further during September, “marking a sustained reduction since peaking in June. They were still historically high overall, however, signaling that global procurement managers still preferred to hold excesses on hand to mitigate inflation and shortages.”
September also saw an increase in shortages for oil and oil-derived products. And there were labor shortages too, which created backlogs on orders. In transportation, the report found that costs rose due to higher oil prices. “This marked the first time since April that global logistics prices have increased (on average),” the report’s authors said.
