Texas Governor Greg Abbott's reelection campaign took a new blow on Wednesday after leaked audio captured Ken Paxton, the state's Republican attorney general and U.S. Senate nominee, telling donors that the governor is "struggling," as polls show a much closer race than almost anyone expected a year ago.
The recording, obtained by Rolling Stone, comes from a small Washington, D.C., fundraiser on September 24. In it, Paxton says Abbott's race against Democrat Gina Hinojosa remains tight despite the governor's advantages in money and name recognition.
"Yes, Abbott is struggling," Paxton says on the recording. "And he didn't have any primary with all the negative ads. So, [I have] disadvantages."
At another point, Paxton tells an attendee that Abbott is "struggling, but he has a lot of money," then adds of Hinojosa, "She has none." At the end of the clip, Paxton concedes that Republicans in the Texas Legislature will probably lose some seats to Democrats.
Abbott, who is seeking a record fourth term, won each of his three previous races for governor by double digits. Polls released this week show him ahead of Hinojosa by 1 to 4 points, while two other recent surveys have her narrowly in front.
No Democrat has won statewide in Texas in 32 years. With early voting starting Monday, both the Senate and governor's races sit within a few points.
Newsweek reached out to Abbott and Hinojosa campaigns for comment on Wednesday.
What the Polls Show in the Governor's Race
Abbott is ahead in most of the newest surveys, by margins far thinner than the ones he is used to.
A Marist University poll of 1,196 likely voters, conducted October 8 to 11, had Abbott ahead 49 percent to 45 percent. A ReconMR/Siena Research Institute poll of 617 likely voters, conducted October 5 to 8, had Abbott up by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent. A University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov poll of 850 likely voters from late September had Abbott ahead 48 percent to 44 percent.
Hinojosa came out narrowly ahead in two others. A University of Texas/YouGov poll of 861 likely voters, conducted September 25 to October 5, had Hinojosa at 49 percent and Abbott at 48 percent. A GBAO poll conducted for the Hinojosa campaign had her ahead 47 percent to 45 percent.
For ReconMR, the result was a turnaround: the pollster had Abbott trailing Hinojosa by 4 points in September before he edged back ahead this month. Hinojosa's lead among independents in that poll shrank from 38 points in September to 23 points in October.
A New York Times/Siena College poll in June had Abbott ahead 51 percent to 44 percent. When the pollster went back into the field from September 21 to 30, Hinojosa led 49 percent to 46 percent. The RealClearPolitics average has Abbott ahead by 3.5 points as of Wednesday, 48.7 percent to 45.2 percent.
Prediction markets are more bullish on Abbott than recent polling suggests. As of Wednesday, Polymarket gave Abbott a 78 percent chance of winning, compared with 23 percent for Hinojosa. On Kalshi, Abbott's odds stood at 81 percent, up 11 percentage points from a week earlier.
Hinojosa Hangs Close Despite Being Outspent
Hinojosa trails in most of those polls, though barely, and Abbott has spent several times what she has to stay ahead.
Abbott spent $69.33 million between July 1 and September 24, more than five times the $12.12 million Hinojosa spent over the same stretch, according to campaign finance records. By late September, he had $17.3 million in the bank to her $4.1 million, down from $105 million in January.
Abbott's campaign reported about 117,000 donations averaging $784 each. Hinojosa's campaign showed nearly 437,000, at about $50 apiece.
The Democratic Governors Association has committed at least $1 million to her campaign, which says Abbott has outspent it by roughly 10-to-1.
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"We're leading in this race because Texans are ready for change," Hinojosa said in a statement to Newsweek. "Working families deserve a governor who will deliver for them, and that's why my plan is as simple as the promise: to secure the American Dream by saving our public schools and putting money in people's pockets."
She dismissed the governor's ads against her. "Abbott's attacks aren't resonating against me because voters are tired of his corruption and culture wars dividing us," she said.
"The momentum behind this campaign is real, and we're ready to win this November," Hinojosa added.
There is also Thursday's one-hour debate in Fort Worth, which Hinojosa accepted. Her campaign says Abbott let the deadline pass.
Leaked Audio Piles Up on Paxton
Rolling Stone's tape is only the newest in a drip of recordings from closed-door Paxton events that started two weeks ago.
The New York Times posted the first clip on September 30. Paxton said in it that President Donald Trump's emergency midterm convention in Dallas hurt his campaign. "When we did that convention, it dropped our numbers," he said.
In audio obtained by CNN, Paxton complained that his primary opponent, outgoing Senator John Cornyn, wanted him to lose.
A clip published by The Texas Tribune drew the sharpest response. Paxton said cuts to mandatory federal spending were unavoidable to address the deficit and that Republicans would "have to suck it up." Paxton has since said he will protect Social Security and accused the media of spreading cherry-picked audio to mislead voters.
Abbott skipped Trump's rally with Paxton in San Antonio last week as he faces his own difficult race.
Republican strategist Mike Madrid warned before the May runoff that Trump's push for loyalty in primaries would leave the party with nominees who struggle in November.
"The challenge for Republicans is Donald Trump demands loyalty at all costs, and the candidates that are willing to be this hardcore loyal to him are the most extreme," Madrid told Newsweek at the time. "And the problem is he can win. Those candidates can win the primaries, but they are in very serious danger of losing in the general because those same people really turn off independent voters."
Newsweek reached out to Paxton and Talarico's campaign for comment Wednesday.
How Paxton Is Performing Against Talarico
Democrat James Talarico, a state representative, has led most Senate polls for months, though the newest one shows the race narrowing.
Marist's survey released this week had Talarico at 47 percent and Paxton at 45 percent among likely voters. Among registered voters, he led by 4, down from 6 last month.
The New York Times/Siena poll from late September had Talarico ahead 51 percent to 45 percent. The RealClearPolitics average through October 8 had Talarico ahead by 2.8 points, 48.1 percent to 45.3 percent.
Prediction markets favor the Democrat more clearly. Talarico was priced at 63 percent to win on Kalshi and 64 percent on Polymarket on October 11, compared with 37 percent for Paxton.
"There is no evidence Texas voters are warming to the national Democratic message," Republican strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek. "The data shows that Texas voters are responding to Talarico as a candidate and support for the opposition is softening."
Voters are still hedging. In the Marist poll, 53 percent of likely voters said they expect Paxton to win, whoever they plan to vote for.
Will Texas Finally Turn Blue?
Democrats have chased Texas for most of the past decade and come up short each time.
In 2018, Beto O'Rourke came within about 2.6 points of Senator Ted Cruz, the closest Senate race in the state in decades. Two years later, Democrats spent heavily on Texas, and Trump still carried it by about 5.6 points. O'Rourke lost to Abbott by nearly 11 points in 2022. In 2024, former Representative Colin Allred lost to Cruz by about 8.5 points, while Trump won the state by nearly 14 points on the back of a major swing among Hispanic voters.
"Texas is brutally tough for Democrats, and it will be this year too," Matt Bennett of the center-left think tank Third Way told Newsweek. "But with a Talarico vs. Paxton contest, it might be winnable."
This cycle has things those races lacked. Paxton carries years of legal and personal baggage, and Republicans in Washington worried before the primary that he would be the weaker general election candidate. As of September, Talarico had led in 15 of the last 16 polls released. He has also outraised Paxton, even in ZIP codes that backed Trump.
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Hinojosa has also mounted a strong challenge to Abbott despite being badly outspent, and voters rate her ahead of him on the cost of living.
Republicans still have plenty working for them. Marist found Republicans ahead by 5 points on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters.
Turnout will decide much of it. Early voting runs from October 19 to October 30, and Election Day is November 3.
"It's still Texas. Still a very tough state for the Democrats," Madrid said. "But the conditions could not be more favorable for them at the same time."
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas