Amulya Vishwanath, who is a former executive in Nvidia robotics, as well as a Techable’s VC founder, says that current robotics is still in “Lego era” despite the fact that investments worth billions are injected into physical AI.
Why she calls it a ‘Lego era’
During an episode of TechCrunch’s Equity podcast on October 16, Vishwanath said that the fundamental components of the sector, including actuators, robotic hands, software, and safety protocols, are still being developed. In her career, she has been involved with Nvidia’s robotics product marketing for seven years prior to making investments in the area of physical AI at its nascent stage.
Opinions differ between experts. Pim de Witte, who is the CEO of General Intuition, predicts that one general-purpose robotics model will overthrow much of today’s specialized robotics work. Meanwhile, Moore Threads chairman Zhang Jianzhong offered a more conservative opinion:
It is certainly still some way from its ‘GPT moment.
Gartner says fewer than 20 will reach production
Gartner predicts that under 100 companies will use humanoid robots beyond testing by 2028, while under 20 will actually carry them into production in manufacturing and supply chains.
“The promise of humanoid robots is compelling, but the reality is that the technology remains immature,” Gartner analyst Abdil Tunca said. Problems like limited dexterity, high cost of integration, and short battery life are major hindrances.
18,000 humanoids versus 4.6 million factory robots
Humanoid robots gain growing interest, but very few have been deployed in factories. According to IDC, there were over 18,000 shipments made globally in 2025. Manufacturers in China comprised approximately 95% of the whole.
Despite this, 85% of the total shipments were sent to performances, education, data collection and guided tours instead of industrial production. IDC forecasts that shipments will surpass 510,000 by 2030.
Traditional industrial robots have made more progress compared to their counterparts. The International Federation of Robotics reported that there were 542,000 installations in 2024. The number of active robots around the world has reached 4.7 million. While shipments and installations are by no means the same thing, these numbers give an idea of how established the idea of factory automation is.
Physical AI is also making progress outside factories. Self-driving vehicles are a stellar example of this trend. For instance, Waymo had announced that it had completed a whopping 15 million rides in 2025. Furthermore, the company received an impressive funding of about $16 billion in February 2026. Its success indicates that specialized AI technology can be commercially viable, while innovative humanoid robots are yet to find widespread applications.
Where the $47.4 billion is actually going
Crunchbase counted $47.4 billion invested across 521 physical AI deals in the first half of 2026, almost four times the previous half-year’s $12 billion. That category covers vehicles, defense, drones and sensors—not just humanoids.
Waymo led with $16 billion, followed by Anduril’s $5 billion, Shield AI’s $2 billion and Saronic’s $1.75 billion. Investors still back robot intelligence: Cryptopolitan reported Generalist’s approximately $600 million funding round and $3 billion valuation.
Techable VC’s portfolio, meanwhile, includes autonomy startup Alpha Z, industrial robotics developer Trener Robotics, soft-materials company morph. and Andromeda Surgical.
The near-term winners may be chips and software
Gartner’s September research identifies physical AI agents among four trends reshaping warehouses. Rather than bet everything on human-shaped robots, companies can deploy specialized systems now.
For the global AI market, the more immediate opportunity lies in proven automation, sensors, computing and software. The general-purpose humanoid remains a longer-term wager.
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