SA might miss its renewables target, but does it matter?

In an alternate universe, Adelaide is making its final preparations to welcome 30,000 people from across the world to next month's COP31 climate summit.

The UN conference would have given the South Australian government an opportunity to spruik its green credentials to a global audience.

But that chance was lost last year when Türkiye won the diplomatic standoff over hosting rights.

Since then, climate change and energy policy have largely taken a backseat in the state's daily political news cycle.

That was partially evident last week when there was only one journalist in attendance as Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis marked the start of construction on a new wind farm an hour east of Adelaide that will be capable of powering up to 142,000 homes.

It was at this press conference, however, that Mr Koutsantonis hinted for the first time that South Australia might not reach its 100 per cent net renewable energy target by 2027.

"I think we are going to get to 100 per cent. I am confident we can meet that target," he said.

"But the question for us is going to be is when in 2027 we hit that target.

"Now, look, if we overshoot it a bit, it gets into a little bit of 2028, fine. But the ambition is what's important. The ambition is what drives the government's agenda here."

When the wind projects aren't blowing

Renewables, primarily solar and wind, accounted for 77.1 per cent of the state's net electricity generation in the 2025 calendar year, according to the latest federal data, with gas making up most of the rest.

It was the former Marshall Liberal government that set a 100 per cent net renewables target for 2030, the "net" term recognising there would still be days where gas is meeting demand along with energy imported from more coal-reliant Victoria.

The Malinauskas Labor government then brought forward the target by three years, a big announcement in February 2024 as part of its "State Prosperity Project" roadshow.

At the time, Premier Peter Malinauskas cited the government's $593 million plan for a hydrogen power plant in Whyalla as a reason the target could be met by 2027.

But the government shelved the hydrogen project a year later.

It has also faced a slowdown in new large scale wind farm projects, according to Renew Economy founding editor Giles Parkinson, who attributed this to construction delays on the New South Wales side of the new SA-NSW interconnector.

"No one's going to build more wind farms in South Australia without that transmission link," he said.

"Because the risk would be if they brought a wind farm, then all of their output would be curtailed because there wasn't enough demand in the state for that."

With the interconnector now complete, allowing SA to export excess solar and wind to NSW, the state's renewables pipeline appears to be rebounding.

The value of large-scale renewable energy and storage projects under construction or with development approval in SA has grown to nearly $32.5 billion, according to government figures, up from $19 billion last year.

This includes the project Mr Koutsantonis visited last week, a 288-megawatt wind farm to be constructed by Australian company Tilt Renewables, as well as a 346-megawatt wind farm in the state's Mid-North funded by French multinational Neoen.

"Really, to get to that [100 per cent net renewables] target, they needed to start construction a year or two earlier," Mr Parkinson said, describing the energy minister's comments as a "realistic assessment".

What would missing the 2027 target mean?

Not much, according to experts in the field.

"I think the long-term progress matters more than the exact year," said Dr Lin Han, a Lecturer in Business Analytics at Flinders University, who noted that "even net 100 per cent is not emission-free".

"If South Australia reaches 100 per cent in 2028 rather than 2027, it is still a huge achievement if we look back to 10 years ago."

In 2007, renewables made up just one per cent of SA's electricity generation.

The transition has enjoyed bi-partisan support in state parliament, although the SA Liberals pledged to scrap the 2027 target at the last election.

Dr Han warned that getting from 75 per cent to 100 per cent was "likely to be more challenging than the earlier stages of the transition".

She said this was because it was no longer just about building more wind and solar farms but also new storage, transmission and backup capacity.

A four-day wind drought in June — that left gas plants running flat out to keep the lights on and sent spot electricity prices soaring — highlighted this challenge. Not to mention that a heap of extra energy demand from new data centres is on the horizon.

"What matters is that the transition continues while maintaining electricity reliability, affordability and lower emissions," she said.

"Reaching the target shouldn't come at the expense of these outcomes."

The other part of the puzzle

The Malinauskas government's zeal for labelling its policies "nation-leading" has been explored by this column before, but the term earns its keep here.

The closest mainland state to SA's 77.1 per cent renewables generation last year was Victoria on 41.9 per cent.

"[SA] is right up there alongside Denmark for having the highest penetration of large-scale renewables," said Clean Energy Investor Group chief executive Richie Merzian.

But the state's decarbonisation record in other sectors — namely transport, heavy industry and households — is more mixed, especially now with hydrogen largely out of the picture.

"A lot of chips were put on hydrogen as a bet that this would really help with the decarbonisation challenge," Mr Merzian said, pointing to past discussions about blending gas with hydrogen for residential use.

"There was a lot of hope that hydrogen would deliver on the decarbonisation pathway — now we need to course correct.

"That's really where we want to see things pick up."

This mixed record on decarbonisation was underscored earlier this month when the state government opted out of a national scheme that could have disincentivised new home gas connections. 

The state government argued the scheme would add $2,500 to the cost of a new home. Instead, those costs will be borne over time by households across the rest of the gas network.

Mr Koutsantonis told the ABC in a statement that gas remained important “as a direct energy source for industrial heat, supporting economic activity and supply chains”. 

“We are not a government that, for purely ideological reasons, wants to impose limits or additional costs on homebuyers who want the option to use gas,” he said.

Perhaps not the most popular message among UN climate delegates. Lucky Türkiye is half a world away.