Bitcoin (BTC) investors sitting on unrealized losses are capping price gains at $87,700, while ETF inflows strengthen support at $80,000, analysis reveals.
Key points:
- Bitcoin investors who bought BTC in the latter stages of 2025 have an aggregate cost basis of around $87,700, which now functions as resistance per Glassnode analysis.
- The area immediately above $87,000 hosts several resistance levels including the 2026 open at $87,490 and the 20-month moving average at $87,165.
- Bitcoin price support at $80,000 strengthens as bid liquidity focuses on this psychological level.
Bitcoin 2025 buyers add to $87,000 resistance zone
New research from onchain analytics platform Glassnode reveals that the breakeven point for a cohort of new Bitcoin holders is currently acting as resistance.
Since the start of the year, two groups of holders have kept BTC/USD from moving higher once it challenges their acquisition cost basis.
In November 2025, price lost the cost basis of investors with entries between six and 12 months prior, which sat at $94,000 at the time. When price attempted to break above the trendline at $97,100 in January 2026, it became resistance, triggering a rejection and sending price lower.
A similar resistance trendline is given by the cost basis of investors who bought BTC one to two years prior. This cohort slipped into aggregate loss in February of this year as price lost its cost basis of $76,900. In May, the cost basis halted a price rebound at just above $82,000.
In both cases, underwater buyers looking to exit their positions at breakeven produced a wall of sell-side pressure that new demand could not match. Commenting, Glassnode noted the extent of BTC price retracements after rejections from either cost basis.
“Bitcoin rose to the 6-12 month cost basis in January and then fell by more than a third. It met the 1-2 year cost basis in May and fell by about a quarter,” it said. “The 1-2 year holders also stepped up their selling into the rally at the start of October.”
The cost bases for the six-to-12-month cohort and one-to-two-year cohort are currently $87,700 and $99,500, respectively.
BTC/USD chart with cohort breakeven levels (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
The area above $87,000 also contains the 2026 opening price at $87,490 and the 20-month simple moving average (SMA) for BTC/USD at $87,165, a level that has historically preceded new all-time highs once reclaimed as support.
ETF cost basis hosts new BTC price support
Below current spot price, the cost basis of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) marks one of several support levels of interest around the $80,000 mark.
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Glassnode calculates the spot ETF cost basis at $81,500, while Bitcoin’s true market mean — the cost basis for all BTC acquired on secondary markets — sits at $77,500. Below this, the breakeven point of Bitcoin’s short-term holders — wallet entities holding a given amount of BTC for up to six months without selling — lies at $74,600.
As an important psychological level, $80,000 now forms a magnet for bid liquidity across exchange order books.
“The block sits just under the US Spot ETF Cost Basis, so the zone between $80K and $81.5K is where order-book and on-chain support overlap. A break below it would bring the liquidation cluster just under $80K, and then the True Market Mean near $78K, into play,” Glassnode commented.
BTC/USD chart with cost-basis data, true market mean (screenshot). Source: Glassnode