Israel could be heading towards another political crisis after its general election on 27 October, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival, retired general Gadi Eisenkot, expected to secure a parliamentary majority.
With the two rival blocs neck and neck in the polls, the vote could trigger weeks of difficult coalition negotiations, leaving the country without a new government and potentially forcing another election.
The stakes are particularly high as Israel remains embroiled in regional conflicts, while deep divisions over military conscription, Palestinian statehood and the role of the far right threaten to complicate efforts to form a government.
Netanyahu's far-right bloc and Eisenkot's opposition coalition both face significant obstacles to securing the 61 seats needed to control the 120-member Knesset.
As Israel prepares to head to the polls on Tuesday, several scenarios could determine who governs the country next.
A Knesset majority
The simplest outcome would be for either the pro-Netanyahu group or Eisenkot's coalition to win more than 60 seats in the vote.
Current polling indicates that this is unlikely. An average of polls tracked by The New Arab over the past week shows that both sides are likely to fall short of a majority by around 10 seats.
Nevertheless, with a week to go before the vote, there is plenty of time for something dramatic to happen that alters the course of the race. US news reports suggest that Netanyahu and Trump have been discussing a renewed attack on Iran, while both leaders have escalated their rhetoric against Tehran in recent days. Few would be surprised if the two made a move against Iran if Netanyahu's position remains shaky ahead of election day.
That said, a majority doesn't necessarily ensure the quick formation of a government given the frictions among both coalitions.
While considered allies of Netanyahu, neither of the Haredi parties is guaranteed to go back into government with him given the continued tensions over the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews. Shas and United Torah Judaism, which quit the coalition last year over the issue, will want commitments that religious Jews will remain exempt from military service before entering the next government.
Meanwhile, the Eisenkot coalition is united on its opposition to Netanyahu and a Palestinian state but little else. Its members range from the hardline ultranationalist Yisrael Beiteinu to the Democrats party led by Yair Golan. Golan, a former general, doesn't support a two-state solution but is against the annexation of the West Bank and supports negotiations with the Palestinians, putting him at odds with the rest of the coalition.
Coalition horse-trading
In the likely event that the vote produces a stalemate, it will fall to both sides to negotiate with other parties to expand their coalitions.
The Arab parties – which include the Joint List, an alliance of Palestinian parties spanning nationalist, secular and communist traditions, and the conservative Ra'am – are projected to win 14 seats between them, potentially leaving them holding the balance of power.
Between them, Ra'am's Mansour Abbas is most likely to do a deal to enter government with Eisenkot, in a repeat of his agreement with hardliner Naftali Bennett in 2021. There are potential roadblocks from within the coalition, with Yashar members opposing a deal with the party.
Assuming a deal can be done, including Ra'am in the coalition would only get Eisenkot so far. The party is expected to win only five seats, leaving him short of a majority.
That leaves the Joint List and the Haredi parties as potential pathways to government. Cooperating with the Joint List – which includes Sami Abu Shehadeh's nationalist Balad, Yousef Jabareen's left-wing Hadash and Ahmed Tibi's Ta'al – is scarcely thinkable, given the chasm that separates the two sides.
It is also an option for Eisenkot if he can convince his coalition to make an informal arrangement with the Joint List. Jabareen said this month that he could agree to provide backing in the Knesset to an Eisenkot minority government if it means keeping Netanyahu out of power.
Such support would not necessarily require the Joint List to join the government or formally back it in every parliamentary vote. It could instead involve abstaining from confidence votes to allow a minority administration to take office.
But it's a big if. Jabareen has outlined conditions for the group's support, including commitments to combating spiralling crime in Arab communities and supporting a Palestinian state, the latter of which is anathema to every party in Eisenkot's coalition. Any arrangement would therefore depend on negotiations rather than unconditional or automatic backing.
Minority government
Should negotiations stall, one side could decide to govern as a minority. This has never happened after an election in the country's history and would be a recipe for political instability.
It is also an option for Eisenkot if he can convince his coalition to make an informal arrangement with the Joint List. Jabareen said this month that he could agree to provide backing in the Knesset to an Eisenkot minority government if it means keeping Netanyahu out of power.
But it's a big if. Jabareen's price for the group's support is commitments to combating spiralling crime in Arab communities and supporting a Palestinian state, the latter of which is anathema to every party in Eisenkot's coalition.
National unity government
Given the potential for a post-election political crisis, speculation has increased in recent days about whether Netanyahu and Eisenkot could come together to form a unity administration and block the Kahanist right from staying in power.
Both leaders have flatly rejected the possibility of going into government with each other, though President Isaac Herzog is reportedly trying to bring them together.
Assuming the Likud leader were to cut ties with the extreme right, such an arrangement would still require the backing of most of Eisenkot's coalition, all of whom have staked out stridently anti-Netanyahu positions.
The record shows that such an administration is unlikely to last long. The most recent unity government - between Netanyahu and Benny Gantz in 2020 - barely lasted six months before it collapsed and new elections were called.
A new election
If all efforts to form a government fail, Israel could be forced to hold another election, raising the prospect of a return to the political paralysis of 2019 to 2021, when the country held four elections in just two years.
A prolonged deadlock in 2026 could prove even more destabilising, with the Israeli military engaged in conflicts on multiple fronts and social tensions continuing to rise.
With Trump threatening to relaunch the war on Iran next month and Israeli settler violence escalating across the occupied West Bank, a political vacuum could provide Netanyahu's Likud party and the increasingly powerful far right with an opportunity to advance their ambitions at home and abroad.