The strategy behind Tinubu’s road revolution

If one thing has been consistent in President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political career, from his days as a senator in the aborted Third Republic to his tenure as governor of Lagos State and now as president, it is his emphasis on executing projects and pursuing policies that he considers central to his vision of governance. Since taking office on May 29, 2023, he has pursued a series of economic reforms and embarked on an ambitious infrastructure programme, with roads occupying a prominent place in his administration’s development agenda.

The removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of Nigeria’s foreign exchange markets were among the administration’s earliest economic decisions. These measures were intended to address fiscal pressures and distortions in the foreign exchange market, although their consequences have included substantial adjustment costs for households and businesses. The challenge now is to translate macroeconomic reforms into improvements in productivity, employment, purchasing power and living standards.

Roads are not merely strips of asphalt or concrete connecting one town to another. Properly conceived and maintained, they are economic assets that connect farms to markets, factories to distribution centres, ports to industrial clusters and rural communities to schools, hospitals and other essential services. They can also improve access for security agencies and reduce the isolation of communities vulnerable to criminal activity.

The question, therefore, is not simply how many kilometres of road the Federal Government intends to construct. It is whether the emerging network will reduce the cost of doing business, improve the movement of people and goods, strengthen national integration and generate measurable economic and social benefits. Viewed from this perspective, Tinubu’s road programme deserves examination as an attempt to use infrastructure as an instrument of economic transformation.

The four corridors at the heart of the strategy

The administration has identified four major legacy road projects as central to its infrastructure programme: the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway, the Calabar-Ebonyi-Abuja corridor and the dualisation of the Akwanga-Jos-Bauchi-Gombe-Biu-Maiduguri Road. The Federal Ministry of Works describes these projects as part of a broader effort to connect Nigeria’s geopolitical zones and expand economic opportunities.

The Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway is designed to create a major transport route along the southern part of the country, linking important coastal and commercial areas. The Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway is intended to establish a long-distance connection across much of northern Nigeria and the South-West. The Calabar-Ebonyi-Abuja corridor is designed to improve north-south connectivity, while the Akwanga-Jos-Bauchi-Gombe-Biu-Maiduguri route targets movement across several states in the North-Central and North-East.

The Federal Government’s ambition is to create routes that can support commerce across state boundaries, open up underserved areas and connect agricultural, industrial and commercial centres to larger markets. The scale of that ambition is significant, but the benefits will depend on the quality of implementation, the condition of connecting roads and the extent to which the corridors serve actual economic demand.

The Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway has become one of the administration’s most prominent infrastructure projects. Initially presented as a 700-kilometre route, the project has subsequently been described in some official communications as approximately 750 kilometres, reflecting differences in the stated scope and alignment.

The highway is intended to connect areas across Nigeria’s southern coastline, including important commercial, industrial and tourism locations. Its strategic appeal lies in the possibility of improving access to ports, industrial facilities, coastal communities and emerging economic centres.

Lagos is Nigeria’s principal commercial hub, while the wider coastal region contains important petroleum facilities, industrial investments, agricultural communities, tourism assets and maritime infrastructure. Better road connections between these areas could reduce journey times on some routes, improve access to markets and encourage investment in locations that are currently difficult or expensive to reach.

The project’s first phase was formally commissioned on May 31, 2025. Subsequent official updates have reported continued construction and adjustments to sections of the route. These milestones demonstrate progress on the project, but the completion of an initial section should not be confused with the delivery of the entire coastal highway.

The long-term economic value will depend on the completed route’s connectivity, engineering quality, maintenance arrangements and integration with existing transport infrastructure. It will also depend on how the project manages the environmental sensitivities of the coastal landscape. Coastal ecosystems, drainage channels, flood-prone settlements and existing land uses require careful consideration. Sound environmental planning is not an obstacle to development; it is essential to ensuring that infrastructure remains functional and communities are protected over time.

If these issues are properly addressed, the highway could become an important component of a more integrated southern transport network. If they are neglected, environmental damage, maintenance costs and disruptions to local communities could diminish the expected benefits.

The Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway is significant for a different reason. Its proposed route cuts across a broad geographical expanse, connecting areas of the North-West and North-Central regions with the South-West.

The economic logic is straightforward. Nigeria produces agricultural commodities in many areas that remain poorly connected to processing facilities, storage infrastructure and major consumer markets. Transport costs, delays and unreliable access can reduce farm-gate prices, increase post-harvest losses and make agricultural investment less attractive.

A reliable long-distance highway could improve the movement of food and other agricultural products from producing areas to markets, while helping manufacturers distribute goods across state boundaries.

The corridor could also improve access to inland commercial centres and encourage the development of logistics facilities, warehouses, processing plants and service businesses along its route.

But a highway cannot generate these benefits automatically. Farmers need feeder roads linking their communities and farms to the main corridor. Agricultural producers also require storage, electricity, finance, processing facilities and reliable market information.

Without these complementary investments, a modern superhighway could pass through productive areas without sufficiently transforming the economic conditions of the people who live there.

The real measure of success will therefore be whether the project helps rural producers reach markets more cheaply and reliably, whether businesses establish themselves along the route and whether communities experience sustained improvements in income and employment.

The Calabar-Ebonyi-Abuja corridor addresses another longstanding infrastructure challenge: the difficulty of moving people and goods efficiently between parts of the South-East, South-South and North-Central regions.

A more reliable route could improve connections between agricultural communities, commercial centres and the Federal Capital Territory. It could also support interstate trade and reduce the logistical disadvantages faced by businesses operating away from the country’s largest commercial centres.

The corridor’s wider significance lies in the possibility of strengthening the links between different economic regions. Nigeria’s development challenges cannot be solved by improving transport within individual states alone. Businesses also need efficient connections across state boundaries to obtain inputs, distribute finished products and reach consumers.

Where roads are reliable and travel times predictable, companies can plan deliveries more efficiently, reduce vehicle operating costs and expand their distribution networks.

However, these gains depend on continuity. A well-constructed highway section cannot deliver its full value if adjoining roads are in poor condition, bridges are structurally deficient or bottlenecks make the overall journey unreliable.

This makes coordination between federal, state and local authorities particularly important.

The proposed dualisation of the Akwanga-Jos-Bauchi-Gombe-Biu-Maiduguri Road is especially important because transport connectivity in the North-East has implications for both economic activity and security.

The region has faced prolonged insecurity, including insurgency, displacement and disruptions to agriculture and commerce. In such circumstances, unreliable roads can compound existing difficulties by increasing the cost of moving food and supplies, restricting access to public services and making travel more unpredictable.

Improved roads could help reconnect commercial centres, support the movement of agricultural produce and improve access to markets and essential services. They could also facilitate the movement of security personnel, emergency responders and supplies where roads are accessible and safe to use.

Nevertheless, infrastructure must be understood as one component of a broader security and recovery strategy. Road construction cannot independently resolve insurgency, banditry or communal violence. Sustainable security also requires effective intelligence, policing, community engagement, functioning justice institutions, employment opportunities and the restoration of public confidence. The value of the road corridor will therefore be greatest when its construction is accompanied by broader measures to restore economic activity and public services in affected communities.

Beyond the four flagship projects

The administration’s road programme extends beyond its most prominent superhighways. Other major corridors and interventions include sections of the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Expressway, the East-West Road, the Enugu-Port Harcourt Road, the Lagos-Shagamu-Ibadan corridor and various bridges and urban road projects.

These projects address different problems. Some seek to improve intercity travel; others target deteriorating road surfaces, congestion, bridge deficiencies or access to ports and industrial locations.

The Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano corridor, for example, forms part of an important transport route linking the Federal Capital Territory with major commercial centres in the North-West. Improvements to this corridor could support passenger movement, freight transportation and trade between the regions it serves.

Likewise, roads connecting industrial facilities and ports to the national highway network can influence the efficiency of supply chains. Delays on these routes can raise the cost of transporting raw materials and finished goods, while unreliable access can affect production schedules and delivery commitments.

The broader programme also includes emergency and rehabilitation interventions. These are important because Nigeria’s infrastructure needs are not limited to constructing new roads. Existing roads require routine maintenance, drainage improvements, bridge repairs and rehabilitation before relatively minor defects develop into expensive structural failures.

A credible national road strategy must therefore balance new construction with the preservation of existing assets. The Federal Government has also reported the use of concrete pavement and the incorporation of features such as solar street lighting on major projects. These elements may offer advantages in particular circumstances, but their value should be assessed against lifecycle costs, engineering suitability, energy reliability, maintenance requirements and safety performance.

The objective should not simply be to construct roads that appear impressive at commissioning. It should be to deliver infrastructure that remains safe, durable and economically useful for decades.

Why the timing matters

Tinubu’s infrastructure push is taking place against the background of difficult economic adjustments. The removal of the petrol subsidy and changes to the foreign exchange system have altered the fiscal and operating environment for government, households and businesses. Although the reforms were intended to address longstanding economic distortions, the adjustment has placed pressure on living costs and the operating expenses of many businesses.

Transportation is an important part of that pressure. When petrol, vehicle maintenance, spare parts and freight become more expensive, the cost of moving food and manufactured goods rises. Businesses may pass these costs on to consumers, while farmers can find it more difficult to transport produce profitably.

A more efficient road network could help reduce some avoidable transport costs, although it cannot independently reverse the effects of fuel prices, inflation, exchange-rate movements or other structural constraints.

The economic case for road construction is therefore strongest when infrastructure investment is linked to a wider productivity strategy. If improved roads reduce journey times, vehicle damage, spoilage and delivery uncertainty, businesses may be able to operate more efficiently. If the resulting savings are substantial and sustained, they can support investment, employment and the expansion of economic activity.

However, the gains are neither automatic nor uniform. Some communities will benefit more than others, depending on their access to the network, the location of economic activity and the availability of complementary infrastructure.

Road projects should consequently be evaluated not only by their construction costs and kilometres delivered but also by their effects on transport costs, market access, employment and regional economic activity.

Roads as an instrument of national security. One of the strongest arguments for improving Nigeria’s road network is the relationship between accessibility and security. In remote or poorly connected communities, damaged roads and difficult terrain can slow emergency responses, complicate logistics and increase the time required to reach vulnerable settlements. These constraints can affect security agencies, medical personnel, firefighters and other emergency services.

Reliable roads can improve access to affected areas, facilitate the transportation of personnel and equipment and make it easier to maintain connections between communities and government institutions.

Better connectivity can also support routine commercial activity. Markets, schools, health facilities and other public services become easier to reach when roads are passable throughout the year.

These improvements may help reduce the isolation that can deepen economic vulnerability. Yet the relationship between roads and security requires careful interpretation. A new road does not automatically prevent kidnapping, banditry or terrorism. Roads can also provide easier movement for criminals if security arrangements are inadequate.

The security benefits therefore depend on effective patrols, surveillance, intelligence sharing, rapid-response capacity and cooperation between security agencies and local communities. Roadside lighting, safe stopping areas, functioning communications and appropriate access controls may also contribute to safety on selected corridors. In other words, the security value of infrastructure depends not only on where a road goes but also on how the corridor is managed after construction. The same principle applies to rural development. Improved access can create opportunities, but those opportunities must be supported by functioning institutions, public services and economic activity.

What international development evidence tells us. The argument that road access matters for development is supported by international research. The World Bank’s 2001 technical paper, Design and Appraisal of Rural Transport Infrastructure: Ensuring Basic Access for Rural Communities, explains that rural isolation contributes to poverty by limiting access to essential social and economic activities. It argues that providing and maintaining basic transport access is an important component of rural development.

The implication for Nigeria is clear: a road programme should not be judged exclusively by the scale of its most expensive highways. Rural roads and local access routes can be equally important in determining whether communities benefit from national infrastructure investment. A farmer whose produce reaches a major highway only after several hours on a damaged feeder road may still face high transport costs. Similarly, a community located close to a superhighway may remain economically isolated if it lacks a safe connection to the main route.

The African Development Bank’s Independent Development Evaluation reached related conclusions in its May 2025 report, A Decade on the Move: Evaluation of the AfDB’s Support for the Transport Sector (2012–2023). The evaluation found that transport investments had helped improve connectivity, facilitate trade, promote regional integration and support economic growth. It also identified challenges involving efficiency, sustainability, climate resilience, inclusion and project execution. These findings provide a useful framework for assessing Nigeria’s infrastructure agenda. Connectivity matters, but the quality of planning, execution and maintenance determines whether transport investments deliver durable benefits. They also reinforce the importance of complementary infrastructure. Roads can facilitate trade, but their contribution to development depends on whether businesses can use them effectively and whether the communities they serve can participate in economic activity.

The fiscal question: Ambition must be matched by accountability. Large infrastructure projects require substantial public resources, making financing and value for money central to their assessment. The immediate construction cost is only one part of the calculation. Governments must also consider financing arrangements, future maintenance, environmental mitigation, compensation for affected property owners and the costs of managing associated infrastructure.

A road may generate significant economic benefits over time, but those benefits must be assessed against the total cost of delivering and maintaining it. This is particularly important when several major projects are being executed simultaneously. The government must ensure that its infrastructure commitments remain consistent with available financing, debt obligations and competing demands for public expenditure.

Nigeria has pressing needs in education, healthcare, electricity, water supply and social protection. These priorities should not be treated as competitors in a simplistic contest. A productive economy needs both effective transport infrastructure and adequately funded public services.

The task is to allocate resources in ways that generate the greatest sustainable public benefit. Transparent procurement, independent engineering supervision, clear project milestones and credible public reporting are essential to achieving this objective. Citizens should be able to determine how much a project costs, how it is financed, what work has been completed, whether deadlines have been met and how variations in scope affect the final bill.

Where projects are delayed or costs rise, the reasons should be clearly explained. The same standards should apply to the award of contracts, the selection of routes and the assessment of competing infrastructure needs. Accountability is not an argument against ambitious construction. It is a condition for ensuring that ambition produces results.

The environmental and social dimensions. The scale of a highway programme also creates environmental and social responsibilities. Roads can change land-use patterns, increase the commercial value of surrounding property and attract new settlements and businesses. These effects can stimulate economic activity, but they can also create pressure on wetlands, forests, agricultural land and existing communities.

Coastal infrastructure presents additional challenges because of flooding, erosion, drainage and the sensitivity of shoreline ecosystems. Environmental assessments, appropriate drainage design, responsible land acquisition and meaningful consultation with affected communities are therefore critical. Where people lose homes, livelihoods or access to land, compensation and resettlement arrangements must be handled fairly and transparently. Road safety also deserves attention. Higher-capacity roads can improve traffic flow, but speed, unsafe junctions, poorly designed access points and inadequate pedestrian facilities can create new risks.

The planning process should take account of pedestrians, cyclists, public transport users, nearby settlements and other vulnerable road users. Similarly, climate resilience must be incorporated into engineering decisions. Heavy rainfall, flooding, erosion and changing weather patterns can damage infrastructure and disrupt transportation.

The African Development Bank’s transport evaluation highlights climate resilience and long-term sustainability as important lessons for infrastructure development. For Nigeria, this means that the quality of a road should be measured not only by the materials used during construction but also by its ability to withstand local environmental conditions and remain functional over time.

From construction to economic transformation. The most important test of Tinubu’s road programme will be its capacity to turn physical infrastructure into productive economic activity. Construction itself can create employment for engineers, technicians, artisans, drivers, equipment operators and other workers. Local suppliers may benefit from demand for materials, transport and related services.

However, construction employment is often temporary. The longer-term objective should be to create conditions in which businesses expand, investment increases and more durable jobs emerge. This requires a deliberate connection between transport planning and economic development.

Agricultural corridors should be linked to storage, processing and distribution facilities. Industrial routes should connect factories with ports, power supplies and logistics hubs. Rural access programmes should help communities reach schools, hospitals, markets and other essential services. Governments should also consider how small businesses can take advantage of new transport links. Local enterprises need access to credit, reliable electricity, suitable commercial premises and predictable regulations if they are to expand around emerging economic corridors.

Without these complementary measures, the benefits of improved connectivity may be concentrated among a limited number of large firms and property owners. There is also a need to measure whether the projects reduce transport costs in practice. Baseline data on travel times, freight rates, road conditions, accident rates and market access should be collected before and after construction.

Such evidence would help determine whether the programme is meeting its objectives and identify where additional interventions are necessary. The question is not simply whether a road has been built, but whether the road has made life and business measurably better for the people who use it.

The importance of maintenance. Nigeria’s road infrastructure challenge is not only about building new routes. It is also about preserving the value of existing roads. Poor maintenance can allow small defects to develop into major structural problems, increasing repair costs and disrupting transportation. Blocked drainage, damaged bridges, overloaded vehicles and inadequate enforcement of road standards can shorten the useful life of infrastructure. A comprehensive road policy must therefore provide for routine inspections, timely repairs, drainage maintenance, bridge monitoring and appropriate enforcement of axle-load regulations.

Funding for maintenance should be planned from the beginning rather than treated as an afterthought. This is particularly important for a country undertaking multiple large projects at once. The more extensive the network becomes, the greater the need for a reliable system to maintain it.

The long-term economic return on infrastructure depends on keeping it operational. A well-maintained road that reliably connects communities for decades may provide greater public value than a more ambitious project that deteriorates prematurely.

A legacy measured by results. President Tinubu’s road programme reflects an ambitious attempt to address Nigeria’s longstanding transport constraints through major highways, corridor development and the rehabilitation of existing infrastructure. Its central rationale is understandable: a country seeking greater productivity, stronger regional integration and more balanced economic development requires an efficient transport network.

The four flagship corridors could help connect major economic regions, improve access to markets and support the movement of goods and people. Other federal roads, bridges and rural access routes could complement those investments by addressing bottlenecks and connecting communities to the wider network. But the success of this strategy cannot be determined by political announcements, contract awards or the visual impact of newly completed roads alone.

It must be demonstrated through reliable infrastructure, lower transport costs, improved road safety, stronger commercial activity, better access to essential services and measurable improvements in the lives of citizens. It must also be judged by fiscal discipline, environmental responsibility, transparent procurement and the government’s ability to maintain what it builds.

These are the standards against which the programme should ultimately be assessed. Nigeria needs roads that do more than shorten journeys between major cities. It needs a transport network that connects farmers to buyers, workers to jobs, manufacturers to markets and underserved communities to essential services. It needs corridors that support legitimate economic activity while complementing the work of security agencies. Above all, it needs infrastructure that remains useful long after the officials who initiated it have left office.

Tinubu’s road revolution will achieve its greatest significance if it helps turn infrastructure investment into sustained productivity and broader prosperity. The ultimate legacy will not be the number of kilometres announced or the grandeur of individual highways. It will be the extent to which those roads make Nigeria more connected, more productive, safer and better equipped to create opportunities for its people.

… Akinmade writes from Abuja