The stock market rebound could mean two things: either investors believe Tehran and Washington will reach a peace deal soon, or they don’t have any other way to stop their savings from losing value.
Iran’s stock market has recently rallied despite its plummeting economy.
Iran International reported on Tuesday that the Iranian stock market has seen an influx of Investments, despite increasing power outages, a shortage of foreign currency, and the rate of the rial tanking.
The report noted that this could mean one of two things: either investors believe Tehran and Washington will reach a peace deal soon, or they have no other way to stop their savings from losing value.
Iran International points to a few competing analyses of the situation to better explain investors’ choices.
One analysis from Farau indicates that a lack of foreign exchange currency in the country, energy shortages, and uncertainty over the war are the primary stressors for Tehran’s economy.
Why is Iran's stock market rallying?
Iranian oil exports have effectively stopped under the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving Iran with a dwindling supply of foreign currency.
The report noted that Khabar Online cited a 35,000-toman rise ($.003495) in the free-dollar market in the last month alone.
Additionally, energy shortages in Iran are exacerbating the problems. Iran's energy sector was already underfunded before the war began, and strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure have further strained production.
On top of that, Iranian investors are unsure what comes next. The economic effects of a third round of war would be disastrous, but diplomatic efforts continue.
Businesses that rely on imported goods are feeling these effects, as they face higher operating costs with less access to foreign currency, Iran International added.
These factors significantly complicate long-term investment and leave Iranians seeking assets that will preserve their value.
Some analyses indicated that investors are optimistic about a deal.
Rouydad24 argued that investors expect a deal and believe more access to international markets is on the horizon.
However, Iran International noted that other analyses show a different picture.
Just because the market is rising does not mean that investors in Iran are optimistic about the country’s economic prospects. Instead, it might indicate that Iranian’s lack alternatives for preserving their wealth.
The rial’s value has tanked, property is losing value, and bank deposits are losing purchasing power, making domestic equities more attractive to investors, the report noted.
This could offer a more stable assessment than the first: investors may be buying domestic stocks out of fear that cash will lose value in the country.
This comes as the International Monetary Fund forecasted that Iran’s economy would contract by 7.6% in 2026, as compared to the rate of 5.4% projected in July.
Notably, Iran International noted that the Middle East and Central Asia were expected to contract by 0.3%.