Albertans are just one day away from deciding whether to take a first step towards independence, something that would have widespread repercussions for the province, Canada, the United States and much of the Western world.
Independence advocates argue that a break from Canada would free the oil-rich province from regulations—namely environmental ones—that they contend hamper its energy industry and economic growth. They see Alberta’s oil and gas producers, farmers and taxpayers as the winners of an independence scenario.
Ottawa, which would lose a province responsible for nearly a quarter of Canada’s merchandise exports, if independence was achieved, is vehemently against it. Prime Minister Mark Carney has argued that Albertan independence would be dangerous for the Canada that remains, and for Alberta itself, saying it would “lead to years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities” for the province.
The U.S. would also be affected. Although independence advocates have rejected the idea of becoming part of the U.S., an independent Alberta, and its energy resources, could reshape its economic and political relationship with Washington.
Monday’s referendum, announced by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in May, will not automatically trigger secession, it will ask Albertans whether to begin the process by holding a binding referendum.
But even a positive result on a non-binding referendum will have far-reaching consequences, three experts told Newsweek.
It would “create enormous investor uncertainty, as many energy companies would face regulatory uncertainty about the outcome of separation, and it would raise many concerns about existing and planned new energy infrastructure,” Werner Antweiler, an associate professor specializing in international trade and finance at the University of British Columbia, said.
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Possible Winners of Albertan Independence
Oil And Gas Producers
The Alberta Prosperity Project (APP), a leading separatist group that helped drive the campaign for a referendum, argues that oil and gas producers in the province would benefit from less restrictive environmental rules and project approval requirements, a major gripe separatists have with Ottawa.
Its draft fiscal plan speculates that Alberta could expand oil and gas production through simplified regulation.
University of Calgary professor Jennifer Winter told Newsweek that an independent Alberta could indeed choose not to replace existing federal environmental protections while allowing projects to proceed.
“This would reduce the burden on firms, and so that might create a temporary or even permanent situation where industry benefitted and is able to expand,” she said.
Albertan Farmers And Ranchers
Similarly, independence advocates argue that farmers and ranchers would reap the rewards of control over regulation and research funding, with agricultural policies designed specifically for Alberta.
In the APP’s farmer’s booklet, the group argues independence would increase investment, improve export routes by “encouraging new rail capacity and competition” and allow Alberta to negotiate trade agreements aimed at reducing tariffs on its agricultural exports.
Albertan Taxpayers
The APP argues that retaining revenue currently collected by Ottawa would allow an independent Alberta to cut taxes and improve services—its draft fiscal plan proposes eliminating personal income tax and setting corporate income tax at 10 percent, alongside a 5 percent Alberta sales tax.
However, it's important to note these are campaign proposals, not guaranteed policies.
The U.S.
If Alberta became more dependent on America’s markets and export routes, Washington could gain more leverage.
“Economic benefits would hinge on U.S. cooperation,” Antweiler said, who argued that Washington may use this power to “oppose shipping Albertan crude to certain Asian markets, notably China” and to “demand that Alberta becomes the 51st state,” something the APP has repeatedly said it is not interested in.
Albertan Separatists
Albertan separatists stand to benefit from Monday’s referendum even if they do not achieve independence.
The APP says its strategy includes securing greater provincial control over taxation, pensions, immigration and resource development, strengthening Alberta’s negotiating position whether it remains in Canada or leaves.
“Even if the pro-independence camp loses, higher support for its option than expected would be encouraging for those who support it,” Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, told Newsweek.
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Possible Losers of Albertan Independence
Albertan Households
If independence goes ahead, the disruption it would cause to investment and trade could hit Albertans’ employment rates and incomes, opponents argue.
The University of Calgary’s modeling estimates that the province’s gross domestic product (GDP) could be 2.2 percent smaller in the first five years under a smooth separation scenario, or 10.1 percent smaller under a difficult one, compared with remaining in Canada
“The research that I and my colleagues at the School of Public Policy completed suggests that there will be major short-term and long-term disruptions to Alberta’s economy, which will also affect the energy sector,” Winter told Newsweek. “The more positive scenarios for Alberta and the energy sector rely on changes to global oil markets that work in Alberta’s favor and are not tied to separation.”
Alberta’s Taxpayers
Despite advocates’ promises of lower taxes, the University of Calgary report warns of the substantial costs that would come with establishing a new country, as Alberta would have to take responsibility for services and institutions currently provided by Ottawa.
The report estimates these could total between 50 billion and 170 billion Canadian dollars in the first five years.
“A likely effect is that Alberta would need to borrow money, which could drive up interest rates along with a new risk premium,” Antweiler told Newsweek.
Oil And Gas Producers
Even though energy producers could benefit from Albertan independence, they also face risks from higher financing costs and uncertainty over access to markets, depending on the type of regulation Alberta enforced after independence.
“Important negative disruptions will be access to capital and banking services, and we can expect higher interest rates from uncertainty,” Winter told Newsweek. “This makes incremental investment in an independent Alberta more challenging.”
While Alberta exports most of its oil and gas to the U.S., it also sells to other Canadian provinces.
This “loss of market access and trade integration would come at high and predictable economic costs,” Antweiler said.
Corporate Sector
Alberta could lose corporate headquarters and skilled workers to other Canadian provinces if businesses think it would be more beneficial to remain in Canada.
“Corporate head offices may move if the core of their business operations is across all of Canada rather than just Alberta,” Antweiler told Newsweek.
Canada’s Federal Government
Although this would depend on the final separation agreement, Ottawa would lose part of its tax base. The Calgary Chamber estimates that the federal government collected around 19 billion Canadian dollars more from Alberta annually than it spends in the province in 2024.
“Canadians should be aware that Alberta’s separation will undoubtedly harm Canada as well,” Jack Mintz, chair of the expert panel that reviewed the Calgary study, said in a statement accompanying its release.
Carney said on Friday that those voting in Monday’s referendum should “vote like Canada depends on it, because it does.”
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First Nations
First Nations leaders have long warned that separation threatens treaties their nations signed with the British Crown, before Alberta became a province.
Alberta lies on territory covered by Treaties 6, 7 and 8, which predate the province’s creation in 1905. Treaty 8 First Nations says those agreements allowed settlement under specific conditions and that Alberta has no authority to unilaterally revoke it.
“Alberta came after Treaty 8, that matters,” Grand Chief Trevor Mercredi said in a statement earlier this year. “The province is a tenant on this land, not the landlord. Any talk of separation or so-called provincial sovereignty is not just political theatre; let me be clear: it’s also a proposal to break Treaty. Alberta does not have the authority to ask that question, let alone act on any answer.”
Alberta’s Referendum: What to Know
The independence referendum will be a 10th question to a ballot covering immigration and constitutional issues.
It will ask: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
Some Albertan separatists have spoken out against the referendum who called it a “question to ask a question” and accused Smith of trying to delay timelines for her political benefit.
"That means if we win the so-called referendum vote in October, that kicks it over into 2027,” lawyer for the APP Jeff Rath said. As Alberta's next fixed provincial election is set for next year, Smith's announcement "forces everybody on the independence side to campaign for Danielle Smith for premier in 2027," Rath said.
Smith has frequently voiced frustrations with Ottawa but has long said she is in favor of Alberta remaining in Canada and intends to vote that way. She has stood by her decision to hold Monday’s referendum so as not to "silence the voices of hundreds of thousands of Albertans."
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Ben Kelly and Anthony Murray.