Daol Investment & Securities (030210) raised its target price for Celltrion (068270) to 290,000 won from 280,000 won on the 23rd, saying the Japanese launch of the allergy treatment Omlyclo will broaden the company's growth base. The brokerage maintained its "buy" rating and named Celltrion its top pick among large-cap pharmaceutical and biotech stocks. The new target implies 49.3% upside from the previous session's close of 194,300 won.
"The Japanese launch matters less for near-term earnings than for expanding the allergy business and securing a growth base for follow-on products," said Lee Ji-soo, an analyst at Daol Investment & Securities. The analyst raised earnings estimates centered on Omlyclo and factored the company's direct U.S. sales network and an expanding new-product portfolio into its valuation.
Omlyclo is a biosimilar of the allergy treatment Xolair. Celltrion presented data on Omlyclo's clinical equivalence and on outcomes from patients switched from Xolair at the World Allergy Congress (WAC 2026), held in Kyoto, Japan, from the 15th to the 18th of this month. A global Phase 3 trial in patients with chronic spontaneous urticaria confirmed equivalence to Xolair, and patients who switched from Xolair to Omlyclo maintained improvement in itching.
Pollen-induced allergic rhinitis, known in Japan as kafunsho, is the initial target market for Omlyclo there. In Japan, treatments containing omalizumab can be used for severe pollen allergy in addition to asthma and hives. A survey by the Oto-Rhino-Laryngological Society of Japan put the prevalence of pollen allergy at 42.5% in 2019, and analysts see room for market expansion because prescriptions are currently concentrated among severe patients whose symptoms are not controlled by existing treatments.
Pricing is another strength. In Japan, Omlyclo is priced at 14,602 yen for a 150 mg dose, about 30% below Xolair's 20,822 yen. "The local wholesaler network and supply track record Celltrion has built through its existing biosimilar business will also support an early foothold in the market," the analyst said.
Celltrion is preparing to launch Omlyclo in time for Japan's pollen allergy season next year. With demand concentrated between January and April, product adoption at medical institutions, physician education and inventory buildup ahead of the season are expected to determine early sales. The company then plans to broaden its prescription base to hives and asthma, which require year-round treatment.
Early sales and academic marketing costs remain a consideration, however. "Entering a new clinical specialty involves sales and academic expenses at the outset, so prescription growth and revenue gains are likely to be confirmed before profitability," the analyst said, adding that the pace of prescription growth will need to be watched after next year's pollen season.
Separately, Daol Investment & Securities estimated Omlyclo's global sales next year at 729.9 billion won, up 67.0% from this year. It projected Celltrion's consolidated revenue and operating profit this year at 5.66 trillion won and 1.86 trillion won, up 36.0% and 59.0% from a year earlier, respectively.
