The Ravens used to be one of the best home teams in the NFL.
Not so much anymore.
Sunday will be a difficult test for rookie head coach Jesse Minter, who is once again juggling unusual personnel situations and tricky injury situations including starting quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is questionable with an ankle injury and made progress this week but perhaps not enough to play. The Bengals are fresh off a bye and in considerably better health. Jackson has owned them with an 11-2 record while averaging 29 points per game, but the Bengals offense has also had some legendary days at Baltimore’s expense and Minter’s defense was quite shaky in critical areas through the first third of the season.
These are the top four reasons the Bengals could win Sunday and push the Ravens down in the AFC North standings:
1. Action Jackson?
Even if Jackson plays, he has barely practiced for three weeks since suffering the injury, he has never worked much at all with new center Cam Jurgens at all (more on that in a minute) and his legs have been a huge part of his success against Cincy. Jackson has 837 rushing yards against them; most of any QB against any NFL team, but how much of that will be in the cards even if Jackson does suit up?
Rookie play caller Declan Doyle, coming off his worst performance as an offensive coordinator, has been hesitant to lean into designed runs and RPOs and Jackson’s legs have not been as much of a weapon since 2024, honestly. The Bengals also fortified their defensive line in a major way, they are holding opposing passers to the same rating Baltimore’s vaunted secondary is (87.0) and it certainly looks like this will be a situation where Jackson will have to feel out his ankle though the game.
That’s enough to sway the margins with two teams this well matched.
“I don't feel like I have to be 100%,” Jackson said on Friday about being able to play. “If I can just be out there and tolerate the pain in my ankle, that's it. If I can just go out there and feel the pain a little bit, I can play. But (if) I'm restricted and I can't do what I do, I'm not helping. If I can just go out there and just be a statue and be hit, that's not helping my team at all.”
2. Jurgens Jitters?
The Bengals have arguably the deepest and most impactful rotation of defensive tackles in the NFL right now and it goes way beyond just offseason-acquisition Dexter Lawrence. They are leading the NFL in sacks and pressures from that position and Jurgens has only had really two full workdays on the job in practice and that was somewhat split between two QBS.
Jurgens has not played center with any consistency in quite some time, moving to guard with the Eagles, he was playing poorly for Philadelphia and may have been on the cusp of being benched before the trade, he barely knows the offense and his teammates and he just came out of concussion protocol. If that seems like a lot, that’s because it is.
This will be the Ravens fifth offensive line combination in seven weeks and there is little interior cohesion and it’s been a problem all season. Not sure Jurgens fixes it right away against Sexy Dexy and this bunch and Lawrence knows him well from his time with the Giants battling Jurgens in the NFC East.
3. Fourth Quarter Blues
The Ravens are a joke in the fourth quarter, and they continue to set records for choking away double-digits leads and have blown three already this season and lost two of those games. With 16 losses in games where they lead by 10 or more since 2019, and having just done it again last week in Cleveland, this might be the Bengals catching them in a vulnerable moment.
None of the Ravens’ corners has been any good in the second half of games and top receivers have gutted them to the point it might need to be addressed before the trade deadline and its left hybrid safety Kyle Hamilton exacerbated by it all. Minter has tried to explain it away at times (I know a corner I would be trying to trade away) but their late-game mental breakdowns are real and this team lacks the clutch gene and Joe Burrow has it and it might come down to the final possession. (Oh, and Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase has done things to the Ravens no WR has done to any other team in league history).
Former Bengal Trey Hendrickson may need to take this game over in a revenge spot; Baltimore is bottom seven in the NFL in fourth-quarter pressure rate and sack rate, while the Bengals are number one and it’s not even close with a 50% pressure rate and sublime 18.5% sack rate in the final quarter.
4. Home Field Disadvantage
Baltimore’s choking is most acute at home. The Ravens recently had a five-game losing streak at home and they snapped it Week 4 against the Titans, but again failed to score in the second half of that game after Jackson went down and allowed Tennessee to hang around.
Kicker Tyer Loop hasn’t been great anywhere but has really struggled at home since the preseason and now he has competition back in the building. The Ravens seem incapable of putting forth a pure, focused four-quarter game at home and that might be what it takes to beat a talented Bengals squad.
Burrow is just 2-4 at Baltimore, so the Ravens do have that going for them, but he won at M&T Bank Stadium last year and two of those losses came when mastermind Mike Macdonald was running the Baltimore defense.
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