As President Paul Biya returns to Cameroon, can he still rule?

Cameroonian President Paul Biya, 93, is once again the subject of death rumours.

Africa’s longest-serving president, known for his long stays away from the Central African nation he governs, only recently returned home from one of his longest stints abroad. His long absence renewed speculation about his health amid unconfirmed reports that he had been hospitalised or had even died.

Despite Biya returning to the country in late August after more than two months abroad, some are unsatisfied.

Biya’s most recent “vacation” also got Cameroonians talking about what a post-Biya future could look like as his likely successors jostle for dominance – and whether he can rule at all given the uncertainty over his health.

Cameroonians hope a government reshuffle will be announced soon. Although the president was re-elected for an eighth term in disputed elections in October last year, he has not announced a new government since.

Many are also hopeful that a vice president, preferably one who stays in the country, will finally be appointed. Here’s what we know:

Who is Biya?

Biya has ruled Cameroon since 1982 under the Cameroon People’s Democratic Party (RDPC). That’s significantly longer than any of Cameroon’s under-30s, who make up 70 percent of the nation’s 30 million population, have been alive.

He is Africa’s oldest leader and among the world’s longest ruling leaders.

Under his rule, attacks by the armed group Boko Haram have continued in the country’s north while separatists are active in the west. Despite the nation’s oil wealth, the economy has largely stagnated.

Analysts said Biya, often called “the absentee president”, largely delegates governance to his cabinet. Opposition leaders have accused him of running Cameroon on “autopilot”.

The president is believed to spend extensive periods at the InterContinental Hotel in Switzerland. By 2018, he had spent a total of four and a half years on private visits abroad, according to an analysis from the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project. His wife, Chantal Biya, is known for her flamboyant style.

Biya’s latest re-election triggered mass protests, which were violently suppressed by security forces. Rights groups said at least 48 people were killed.

Opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who claimed victory, was forced into exile in The Gambia.

Tchiroma was formerly part of Biya’s government, holding several ministerial positions over 16 years. He also served as government spokesperson during the years the government fought Boko Haram, and he defended the army when it stood accused of killing civilians. He was once regarded as a member of Biya’s “old guard” but has campaigned on a promise of “change”.

How long was Biya away from Cameroon this time?

Biya arrived in Cameroon on August 20 after 74 days away – one of his longest absences. In 2024, he was absent for 42 days.

The president had been in Geneva for what his office called a “short private stay” since June 7. According to local media, he was joined by family members and some of his close aides.

As speculation grew about his health during his absence, officials denied reports that Biya had been hospitalised at a clinic in Geneva.

Upon their return, Biya and his wife were welcomed by a huge crowd of party supporters. There were fleeting images of the president as he waved from the presidential limousine and shook hands with Prime Minister Joseph Ngute. But many Cameroonians were not satisfied with so little video to indicate the state of the president’s health.

What has happened since Biya’s return?

Not much has happened since the president returned, which has frustrated some people. Since his re-election, he has not announced a new cabinet or a vice president.

While he was away, his office issued several decrees: A presidential act promoted five colonels and another reorganised transfers within the military. But things have since quieted.

Now, Cameroonians are joking online that the president is merely on a visit and will soon return to his residence in Switzerland.

One person posted a playful headline on social media, saying: “Cameroonian President Paul Biya, aged 93, is expected to visit Cameroon next week for a two-week working visit, before returning to Geneva, Switzerland, where he resides.”

Will there be a cabinet reshuffle – and can he still rule?

While he was absent, Cameroon’s ruling party dismissed voters’ concerns and insisted there was no constitutional or political vacuum. However, now that Biya is back, it’s unclear what he plans to do next.

Jason Healy, a sub-Saharan African country risk analyst, told Al Jazeera previously that delaying ministerial appointments could be a strategic move that allows Biya to maintain control over any political changes.

But experts have warned that the prolonged political stagnation is affecting investor confidence in the country.

Cameroonians are now highly curious about who might take over from the president if he is unable to continue as his long stay abroad intensified a power struggle among his would-be successors in the ruling party.

Biya has never identified or groomed a likely successor, adding to the uncertainty.

Now, all eyes are on who might be appointed as vice president. The post was abolished in 1972, but in April, the parliament surprisingly re-established it.

Under the new law, the president can select and dismiss the vice president. The appointee would serve out the remainder of the president’s seven-year term if he is unable to.

Some see the law as an attempt by Biya to select a possible successor although opposition parties have criticised it as undemocratic, saying it essentially blocks elections.

With no vice president, Senate President Aboubakary Abdoulaye would be next in line to lead until elections could be held. Analysts, however, pointed to the country’s secretary-general, Ferdinand Ngoh-Ngoh, believed to be the “de facto president”, as the possible vice president-in-waiting.

There is also Biya’s son, Franck Biya, who would likely enjoy support from his father’s strong base in southern and central Cameroon. But he lacks political experience.