Mark Carney seeks closer Turkey ties. Will Trump object? Should Canada?

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Prime Minister Mark Carney has landed in Turkey for the first-ever dedicated bilateral visit by a Canadian prime minister to Ankara — his latest attempt to diversify Canada’s trading and strategic partnerships amid the trade war with Washington.

Carney will meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday, reportedly to discuss furthering the countries’ free-trade talks launched at July’s NATO summit. They will also talk about greater defence and energy cooperation.

Some of the PM’s trips to Europe this year have generated global headlines — from his Davos speech in January to last month’s proposal that Canada could become an associate member of the European Union. Both drew sharp rebukes from the White House. Will his visit to Turkey lead to more criticism?

Anything is possible, analysts say, given U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpredictable nature.

“Carney could sneeze, and Trump would be upset,” said Sinan Ciddi, senior fellow and director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Turkey program. While he acknowledged that a deal presented as a rebuke to Washington could potentially invite a backlash from Trump, Ciddi doesn’t really think presidential outrage over Carney’s visit is likely.

Bessma Momani, senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, said any criticism from Trump is most likely to target Carney personally, not the talks or any agreement made. “I don’t expect … commentary about the bilateral as much as perhaps to Carney himself,” she said.

But given that Trump and Erdoğan have a good relationship, and both are deferential to one another, the experts doubt Ankara’s outreach to Canada will draw much ire.

“Hosting a leader who has been at odds with the U.S. should not be seen as a message to the United States,” said Bulent Aliriz, senior associate of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Turkey project.

“(Erdoğan) wants to develop the relationship with Canada, like with many other countries, but never at the expense of … President Trump and the U.S.,” he added.

Ciddi also sees any criticism of Erdoğan as unlikely. “Trump hasn’t called him out on it in other parts of the world. I don’t think that Canada appropriating military capabilities from Turkey is going to upset Trump,” he said.

So what military capabilities might be on the table? Erdoğan and Carney, analysts say, are expected to discuss drone and ammunition manufacturing, and potentially a move to set up Turkish production inside Canada.

“If Carney does make a deal on drones, it would be about manufacturing them (in Canada),” said Momani.

Alper Coşkun, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, also pointed to Turkey’s advanced defence industrial production, noting that Canadian interest in Turkish weapons could extend to automated weapon systems.

Like many NATO members, Canada is working to replenish its artillery ammunition stocks and expand production. Turkey and Canada could forge a deal on conventional ammunition and drones, Ciddi says. Rather than upsetting Washington, he suggested any such deal could be sold as the NATO burden-sharing Trump has long advocated for.

“If this is spun the right way,” said Ciddi, “there could be … a foreseeable sort of road for Trump actually praising anything that’s reached.”

Because Turkey needs energy, the analysts expect Erdoğan and Carney to have substantive talks about LNG and nuclear power.

Turkey is “always looking for energy and know-how,” said Momani, calling it the “sector to watch” from this week’s talks. She sees nuclear energy as the strongest of the prospects, followed by defence, because Turkey wants energy supplies and technology, while Canada has the expertise.

Coşkun pointed to civilian nuclear cooperation, as well as possible Canadian LNG sales and mining expertise, as strong possible connections. “Potentially, Turkey’s civilian nuclear program is an area where Canada can provide significant help and can present itself as a very useful partner,” he said.

The final area, of course, is bilateral trade between Canada and Turkey.

Given that the volume of trade is currently very low between the two, Ciddi said the “easiest thing that they could conclude is a major expansion of bilateral trade,” noting how Turkey offers advanced manufactured goods.

Anything that Erdoğan does comes at a cost, and I would say that cost is a reputational cost

Furthering discussions about a free trade deal and increasing Canadian investments in Turkey is important to Erdoğan, says Coşkun, given that Turkey faces potential disruptions with the EU’s proposed “Made in Europe” rules, which could favour EU-made products over Turkish goods.

“Canada can’t offset the amount of trade that Turkey has with Europe, which is its biggest trading partner, but at the end of the day, to sort of broaden that agenda would be a welcome sign for Ankara, and something that Erdoğan can use positively, I think,” he said.

Momani sees Canada as the more eager trade partner of the two, given the trade tensions with the U.S., and says a successful visit would need to show “real dollars and cents, and companies doing business with each other.”

“Whether the results will match the rhetoric, which I’m sure will be flowery and positive, we’ll see,” said Aliriz.

Ciddi, meanwhile, is concerned by the political consequences of greater Canadian defence engagement with Turkey. “I would say, look, Canada should go elsewhere,” he said, noting that Erdoğan gains prestige from Carney’s visit.

“We’ve seen Turkish escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean towards Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, potentially a threat to the Israelis in the Middle East. We’ve seen Turkish largesse and growth of military activity inside Syria,” he said, pointing to how the “Europeans don’t say anything.”

“They don’t say anything because Erdoğan has convinced them that Turkey is a vital security partner, by selling them weapons — high-end, medium-end weapons such as drones, such as combat armoured carrier vehicles, munitions, all this sort of stuff.”

Rather than worrying about Trump’s response, he advises Carney to consider what closer Canada-Turkey defence ties could mean for Turkey.

“We’ve seen the consequences of major Western allies engaging with Turkey and enabling Erdoğan’s regime,” he said. “A power such as Canada should not engage with the Erdoğan government. Anything that Erdoğan does comes at a cost, and I would say that cost is a reputational cost.”

Coşkun also suggested that Canadians might have concerns over warmer ties with Turkey.

He warned that warmer relations could draw public scrutiny over Turkey’s democratic backsliding, which “could be a bit of a challenge on the domestic scene.”

National Post

Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our newsletters here.