MIAMI — There is no doubt the Miami Heat have gotten better as they prepare for the start of the franchise’s 39th season. There also is no doubt that the Eastern Conference has gotten better.
So where do those two factors put Erik Spoelstra’s team as it prepares for Wednesday night’s season opener against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Kaseya Center?
Foremost, as something they haven’t been in a while, certainly not since that unexpected/unimaginable run to the 2023 NBA Finals: as a talking point.
Something interesting is about to happen here. What that is isn’t exactly clear.
The same week that LeBron James warned on his podcast that the Heat should be feared, former Heat coach Stan Van Gundy cautioned on a Ringer podcast that instant ascension with Giannis Antetokounmpo should not be overstated.
The NBA’s poll of general managers had the Heat tied with the Indiana Pacers for Nos. 7-8 in the East — exactly middle of the pack.
The oddsmakers also are seemingly all over the place, but middle of the East appears to be the consensus, as in … poised for a fifth consecutive season in the play-in round.
Making the case for the high ceiling was James on the Mind the Game podcast he does with Steve Nash.
“My initial thoughts are it’s going to be damn good,” James said of the Antetokounmpo-Bam Adebayo pairing. “Obviously we’ve seen what Bam has been able to do over the last few seasons; he’s actually started to shoot the three a lot more. We know with Giannis, he needs space, he wants space, he creates space. That’s when he’s really good, when he can attack or he can get to the gaps and he has guys around him that create space. So I think with Bam’s ability to now shoot the three, I think that helps out a lot.”
He later added, “So that’s a very exciting team. We’ll just see how it all comes together, which I think it will.”
The problem, from those of the Van Gundy standpoint, is what surrounds those two — and even about one of the two. Thus, his thoughts on what could be a low floor.
“I’m not as high on Miami as a lot of people are,” said Van Gundy, a featured analyst on the NBA on Prime. “They did go out and add some shooting around those guys. But the shooting they added compromises them badly on the defensive end of the floor. Even though he was great last year, I’m not sold on Davion Mitchell as a full-time starting point guard, though on that team with Giannis he doesn’t have to carry a huge-shot creation role. Giannis is another guy, when we talk about a lot of guys with their health, this guy has broken down badly over the last few years.
“Yeah, I don’t see them as one of the top teams in the East. I’d actually be surprised, not shocked, but a little bit surprised if they were in the top six.”
Van Gundy went on to praise Spoelstra’s coaching, adding thoughts about Tim Hardaway Jr., Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins.
“I’m not a fan of their roster,” he said. “I like the addition of Hardaway. Klay? I don’t know. I think Wiggins is a little underrated, but I think Bam is a little overrated, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. I don’t know. I’m not sold on them.”
Neither James nor Van Gundy are wrong.
Potential high ceiling.
Potentially low floor.
Antetokounmpo and Adebayo have to be elite, with the composition of the Heat’s hard-capped payroll saying as much.
The supporting cast has to find a way to contribute nightly (not necessarily the same players every night, but certainly several).
But as James, Van Gundy and the general managers who voted Spoelstra the best coach in the league know, Spoelstra at the top of his game can be the great equalizer.
For his part, Spoelstra sounds reinvigorated, which might be what matters most with a coach entering his 19th season leading the way.
“One of the greatest blessings of being in a coaching profession is that each year is different. It has a different set of challenges. It feels different,” he said this past week. “Even if you bring the majority of the players back, what may have worked or you thought was going to be something you get to a lot, sometimes it’s just the exact opposite. So it keeps it fresh. It makes you feel alive.
“I say that all the time to our teams: You want to feel alive in this profession from an emotional standpoint, where you can’t wait to wake up and get to work.”
The work will be ample. The equation has changed with a dramatic offseason makeover. The East is a beast.
But, Spoelstra warns, doubt at your own risk.
“It’s a competitive league,” he said. “It’s only getting more competitive with less teams trying to tank. But as competitors, this is what you want. And, of course, the different personalities and weaving new players in and incorporating them into our culture and then trying to figure out how we’ll create our own culture this season, that’s the process that does make you feel alive.”