Expanding the College Football Playoff to 24 teams would dramatically change the postseason landscape, giving more programs a shot at a national championship, but also likely leading to the elimination of conference championships games. But what would the expanded bracket have looked like during the first two seasons of the 12-team playoff?
Using the final College Football Playoff rankings from 2024 and 2025, we can construct a hypothetical bracket based on proposed 24-team proposal, according to multiple reports on expansion over the past week. As it stands, the model includes 19 at-large selections, automatic bids for the four Power Four conference champions, and one automatic bid for the highest-ranked Group of Six team. The top eight seeds would receive first-round byes, while seeds No. 9 through No. 16 would host seeds No. 24 through No. 17, respectively.
Notably, folks, this is purely a thought exercise for the time being, and not an official bracket by any means. The CFP has not finalized the format nor published rules for how a 24-team field would be selected and then seeded.
2024: Texas would have received a first-round bye
The 2024 season provides a relatively straightforward example. All five conference champions covered by the proposed automatic-bid structure finished among the CFP’s top 24 teams. As a result, the hypothetical field would consist of the teams ranked No. 1 through No. 24 in the committee’s final rankings.
The eight teams receiving first-round byes would have been Oregon, Georgia, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, and Indiana.
That would have been particularly significant for Texas. Instead of opening the actual 12-team playoff against Clemson, the Longhorns would have earned a bye as the No. 3 seed.
Hypothetical first-round matchups in 2024
No. 9 Boise State vs. No. 24 UNLV
No. 10 SMU vs. No. 23 Colorado
No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 22 Army
No. 12 Arizona State vs. No. 21 Syracuse
No. 13 Miami vs. No. 20 Illinois
No. 14 Ole Miss vs. No. 19 Missouri
No. 15 South Carolina vs. No. 18 Iowa State
No. 16 Clemson vs. No. 17 BYU
Memphis, ranked No. 25, would have been the first team left out.
2025: Duke would have earned an automatic bid
The 2025 season presents a more complicated scenario.
Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech and Duke won their respective Power Four conference championships, while Tulane was the highest-ranked Group of Six conference champion.
Duke won the ACC championship but finished outside the committee’s final top 25. Under the reported expanded 24-team model, the Blue Devils would nevertheless receive an automatic bid in this hypothetical situation last season. Assuming the unranked automatic qualifier was placed at the bottom of the bracket, Duke would occupy the No. 24 seed.
As a result, that would have pushed No. 24 James Madison and No. 25 North Texas out of the playoff field.
The other 19 at-large selections would be the highest-ranked remaining teams.
Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma would have received first-round byes in 2025.
Hypothetical first-round matchups in 2025
No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 24 Duke
No. 10 Miami vs. No. 23 Iowa
No. 11 Notre Dame vs. No. 22 Georgia Tech
No. 12 BYU vs. No. 21 Houston
No. 13 Texas vs. No. 20 Tulane
No. 14 Vanderbilt vs. No. 19 Virginia
No. 15 Utah vs. No. 18 Michigan
No. 16 USC vs. No. 17 Arizona
For Texas, the difference between the two seasons would have been substantial. The Longhorns would have received a first-round bye as the No. 3 seed in 2024, but then would have opened the hypothetical 2025 playoff at home against Tulane as the No. 13 seed.
More teams, more problems
These hypothetical brackets help demonstrate the appeal of a 24-team playoff — more programs would have a path to the national championship, and strong seasons by teams outside the traditional power structure could carry greater postseason significance.
But to be clear, CFP expansion would not eliminate selection controversies.
The 2025 example highlights a central question: how should automatic bids be balanced against the committee’s rankings? Duke’s inclusion would come at the expense of James Madison, which finished 12-1 and ranked No. 24.
But would Duke have been more worthy?
It’s a question not wholly unlike those CFP committees have long been forced to answer.
The larger field would create more opportunities, of course, but the details of the selection and seeding rules would determine who benefits most. Until the CFP officially approves a format, these brackets should be treated as informed projections rather than definitive representations of how a future playoff would operate.
And until then, it seems, we wait.