Commentary: ASEAN’s quiet work before the next deadly disaster

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SINGAPORE: An earthquake and a volcanic eruption simultaneously occurring, then a tsunami. That is not the set-up to a new disaster film, but the hypothetical scenario faced by the militaries of 19 countries in a September field training exercise. Held in Banten, Indonesia, Exercise Trident Resolve (XTR) took place just 40km away from Mount Anak Krakatau which erupted three weeks earlier. 

And while the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has at times been criticised for its ineffectiveness in resolving regional political crises, such exercises demonstrate that ASEAN has the ability to mobilise resources and international partners for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR), if called upon. 

Disasters respect no borders. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, one of the most significant disasters triggered by a natural hazard to hit the region, directly impacted at least 14 countries and claimed the lives of over 200,000 people from 38 countries. More recently, the floods at the Nepal-Tibet border affected citizens from at least 34 countries.

More than 40 per cent of global disasters triggered by natural hazards occur within the Asia-Pacific. As extreme weather events become more frequent and destructive, these will be one of the most pertinent threats to Southeast Asia.

The region’s densely populated coastal areas are expected to grow in the coming years. As climate change outpaces capacities to adapt and mitigate, the human cost in the event of a future disaster will likely be extremely high – not only in significant harm to life and property, but also the inevitable displacement of large segments of the affected population. 

COUNTRIES CANNOT ALWAYS COPE ALONE

A major disaster can overwhelm any one country’s ability to respond, especially when those expected to help are themselves affected.

Following the Türkiye-Syria earthquakes in 2023, the needs on the ground were vast and immediate: Survivors needed urgent medical attention. Every minute counted in search and rescue efforts to locate those trapped in the rubble. Those displaced from their homes required emergency shelter, food, water and clothing, while more vulnerable groups such as pregnant women, children and the disabled needed special attention and supplies. 

Efforts had to be undertaken simultaneously across at least 10 cities. Based on known fault lines, preparation had only been made with a smaller geographical area of damage, with neighbouring municipalities and provinces expected to contribute to emergency assistance. 

But the unanticipated scale of the earthquake meant that those expected to help ended up needing help instead.

MORE HELP ONLY WORKS IF COORDINATED

When devastation far exceeds domestic capacity, international assistance becomes crucial. But more is not enough unless everybody can work together effectively.

Military assistance is often required to scale up relief operations swiftly. However, coordinating multilateral military assistance comes with its challenges. 

Inherent differences in practices, hardware and culture between militaries may affect interoperability, making the whole less than the sum of its parts. 

For example, militaries might not share the same standard operating procedures and terminology for the reporting of information. Their communications equipment might also be plugged into different channels. All these and any language barrier would hinder the flow of information. 

And if an efficient and meaningful response to a large-scale disaster requires civil-military cooperation at the local, national and international levels, it must be prepared and practised well before it is called upon. Relevant parties must build collective capacity, develop operational experience, and strengthen trust and understanding. 

This is what ASEAN and its partners practise through exercises like XTR. 

XTR was distinguished by the establishment of the Multinational Coordination Centre (MNCC), led by Indonesia and supported by the Changi Regional HADR Coordination Centre that is run by the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF). 

The MNCC was the nerve-centre for the entire operation, where military responders shared information and coordinated planning. Liaison officers from all participating countries were on standby to ensure that requests for the deployment of their respective military assets received home approval in a timely manner. 

The MNCC also worked in coordination with civilian entities such as the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA). To fulfil its role of tying everything together into a single unified response, it made use of SAF’s OPERA communication tool and information-sharing platform. 

So even though communities are likely to face widespread transport and communications disruptions, the MNCC can piece together a picture of what is happening on the ground, identify urgent needs and coordinate assistance accordingly.

ADAPTING COOPERATION TO NEW THREATS 

While digital technology has helped to enhance disaster relief, it has also created new vulnerabilities. If coordination is the most important ingredient for achieving mission success in a complex operating environment, the systems that enable coordination must be protected.

This is why the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus' (ADMM-Plus) Expert Working Group (EWG) on Cyber Security was included in this inaugural iteration of XTR. 

A potential breakdown mid-operation to the OPERA system would be catastrophic, leaving teams spread across a chaotic disaster zone isolated and essentially forced to work blind. So while some soldiers were out in the field, others were conducting daily cyber assessments to ensure that systems and networks are sufficiently hardened, especially in the case that there is a malicious cyber actor trying to cause further instability by disrupting the relief efforts.

Perhaps more crucially, significant efforts have been made to ensure cyber hygiene, and to sieve out mis- and dis-information. For example, AI-generated videos falsely depicted the scale and location of devastation following the earthquake in Myanmar in March 2025, making aid delivery more challenging when credible information was already perceived to be scarce.

One highly encouraging feature of XTR was that 19 countries participated, meaning that every member state of the ADMM-Plus including China, Russia and the United States took part despite broader geopolitical tensions. 

ASEAN’s reputation as a neutral convener allowed it to bring together disparate actors, even those with trust deficits. At a time when multilateral cooperation is called into question, initiatives like XTR lay the quiet groundwork to help Southeast Asians when the need arises.

Lim Junli is a Research Fellow with the Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Programme and Ian Li is a Research Fellow with the Military Studies Programme. Both programmes are part of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.