How often you SHOULD be winning a Premium Bond prize: We crunch the numbers to reveal the luckiest regions

Premium Bond holders in certain pockets of the country are consistently luckier and win more prizes than in other areas, This is Money can today reveal.

About 22million of us hold the nation’s favourite savings bonds in the hope of striking the jackpot of £1million in the monthly draw, which takes place on the first of each month.

The prize rate, which is the average return across all bondholders and the closest marker that Premium Bonds have to an interest rate, was most recently an annual 4.35 per cent in the September draw.

But in the luck of the draw, some inevitably win more than others. For millions of us, months can go by without any prizes and it can be easy to feel short-changed.

So, how much should you be winning on average and how lucky are you compared with others?

This is Money has worked with National Savings & Investments (NS&I), which runs the draw, to crunch the numbers and find out how often you should expect to win based on how many Premium Bonds you hold.

NS&I, which is Government-backed, has shared a catalogue of data with us that shows where prizes worth £1,000 or more have been won.

This includes all the big tier prizes of £1,000, £5,000, £10,000, £25,000, £50,000, £100,000 and £1million.

A deep dive into the figures has revealed surprising differences in the number of prizes won in certain locations – even when accounting for how much was invested in Premium Bonds in each location.

For the first time, here’s a definitive list ranking the most to the least lucky areas to hold Premium Bonds.

How much should you be winning?

Put simply, the more you hold in Premium Bonds, the more likely you are to win prizes. That’s because every £1 bond has an equal chance of winning.

Many complaints come from those who have held Premium Bonds for decades, without a win – but often it’s because the holdings are small, for example, £100.

Savers can hold up to £50,000 in Premium Bonds and the number of people who hold this upper limit has ballooned in recent years – notably there is no tax to pay on prizes.

Roughly 1.4million now have the maximum, but many more have smaller amounts and the average holding has now risen to £6,029, our analysis shows.

If you have the maximum £50,000, you should win a monthly prize 90.8 per cent of the time.

You have a one in 138 chance of winning £1,000 in current monthly draws. This falls to a one in 28,643 monthly chance of winning £100,000, the second biggest prize.

If you hold fewer Premium Bonds, the odds become longer.

So if you hold £30,000 in Premium Bonds, each month there is a one in 230 chance of winning £1,000 and a one in 47,738 of winning £100,000. There is a 76 per cent chance of winning any prize in any month.

On £10,000, it’s a one in 690 chance of winning £1,000 and a one in 143,213 chance of winning £100,000 monthly, corresponding to 37.9 per cent of any prize. 

Meanwhile, for £1,000 it is a one in 6,897 chance of a £1,000 prize and a one in 1.43million chance of £100,000 each month with a one in 22 chance of winning a prize.

On £100, it is a one in 68,970 chance of a £1,000 prize and a one in 14.32million chance of £100,000 monthly. Your chances of winning any prize in the monthly draw fall to one in 210.

Broadly speaking, over the course of a year, you have a 99.1 per cent chance of bagging a £1,000 return with a maximum holding.

This falls to 64.4 per cent on £30,000; 3.2 per cent on £10,000; one in 485 on £1,000 and one in 4,878 chance on £100. This highlights why those smaller holdings can take decades to return anything – if they do at all.

That said, small holdings can still win big. For example, in the last draw on October 1, someone from Havering in east London won £100,000 from a holding of £350 via a bond bought in 2002, while another in Cheshire scooped £25,000 from a holding of £50, on a bond purchased in 1989.

The Luckiest area isn’t in Britain…

To work out the luckiest areas, This is Money has analysed a mountain of data from NS&I, including how much money is held in Premium Bonds in each area – and how many top tier prizes of £1,000 or more have been won in those areas since January 2023.

We have used the total amount of Premium Bonds held in each region and divided it by the number of top tier prizes won there.

In the most recent draw, there were 19,934 prizes of £1,000; 1,914 of £5,000; 957 of £10,000; 382 of £25,000; 191 of £50,000; 96 of £100,000; and two of £1million.

Of the 14 regions analysed – any with 100,000 holders or more – we have discovered which areas are luckiest for these top tier prizes.

In total, 883,388 monthly prizes of £1,000 or more have been dished out by NS&I since January 2023 until the most recent draw. These were in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Australia and elsewhere overseas.

You can hold Premium Bonds if you live abroad so long as you have a UK bank or building society in your name and the local laws allow it.

Australia appears on our list as it has more than 100,000 Premium Bond holders – other overseas countries are not named because they have fewer.

In fact, the luckiest region according to our findings is Australia, where there are 157,979 holders with almost £124million of holdings.

People in Australia typically hold far less in Premium Bonds than those in Britain, with an average pot of £784.

But for every £1 invested, they received more big ticket prizes.

In total, those in Australia won 826 top prizes in the past three years and 10 months. That means for every £149,864 of collective holdings, there has been one £1,000 monthly big ticket prize.

So for every three people who had maximised their allowance at £50,000, one would have won a big ticket prize.

The second luckiest region is Wales, where the typical holding is £5,052 and every £151,864 returned a £1,000 prize.

Regions of England then make up the next five spots, with the South West in third; South East fourth; East fifth; West Midlands sixth and East Midlands seventh.

Northern Ireland is eighth in the list of 14 – typical holders there have £4,130 in Premium Bonds and £1,000 prizes come for every £154,813 of holdings.

Overseas (excluding Australia) ranks ninth. This includes savers in Canada, Ireland and Jersey, which is counted as overseas by NS&I. 

Pots here, as in Australia, tend to be smaller, with a typical holding of £2,214 and a £1,000 top tier prize coming for every £155,018 of holdings.

Yorkshire and London lose out

On the flipside, our analysis shows that Greater London is the unluckiest spot for large monthly prizes and is bottom of the list in 14th place.

In the capital the typical holding is £5,684. But large prizes come for every £175,007 of holdings.

London ranks far below any other region, with a large gap to the second unluckiest spot – Yorkshire and The Humber.

Here, a typical holding is £5,442 and a prize of £1,000 or more is won for every £165,640 held.

Scotland is third bottom in the list. The typical holding is £4,601 and a £1,000 prize is won for every £155,752 of Premium Bonds.

Making up the rest of the bottom five is North West in 11th and the North East in tenth. The biggest holdings are to be found in the South East. Here, the typical holder has £7,528 in Premium Bonds.

This is closely followed by the South West at £7,441 and the East at £7,248.

Who has the most in Premium Bonds?

There are a handful of counties where the average amount held in Premium Bond pots exceeds £8,000. 

Top of the tree is West Sussex with a typical holding of £8,246, followed by Surrey (£8,225) and Dorset (£8,098).

Meanwhile, the eastern counties of Cambridgeshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Norfolk and Suffolk; the south-eastern counties of Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Hampshire, including the Isle of Wight, and Oxfordshire; and south-western counties of Cornwall, Devon, Gloucestershire, Somerset and Wiltshire, have typical holdings beyond £7,000.

At the other end of spectrum, the area with the smallest typical holding is West Central Scotland at £3,605. In England, the smallest average holdings are found in the West Midlands, at £4,049.

Which area bags £1million prizes?

Three areas have had six £1million winners apiece since January 2023. These are Hampshire including the Isle of Wight, London and Norfolk. 

Hampshire has a total of 825,696 Premium Bonds holders, London more than 2.5million but Norfolk has just 367,738.

Meanwhile, Merseyside has had five millionaires and Nottinghamshire, Cumbria and Hertfordshire have had four.

Notably, there hasn’t been a £1million winner in Wales in this timeframe despite more than 1.1million holders.

Lancashire with 515,905 Premium Bonds holders also hasn’t seen a millionaire made since January 2023.

Leicestershire (315,376 holders) and Tyne and Wear (304,114) are other noticeable absentees. Maybe one of these areas will be lucky enough to get a knock from Agent Millionaire in November.

Overall, though, 39 areas across Britain have been home to the winner of a £1million prize – with two in the Highlands and Islands of Scotland, all the way down to two in Cornwall.

Two areas have had three millionaires made in a single year – Essex in 2023 and Hampshire including the Isle of Wight in 2024.

Might you win £1,000-plus twice?

If you are lucky enough to scoop a prize of more than £1,000 in a month, can lightning strike twice?

Our analysis shows it can, but it is rare. Of the 872,252 prizes worth £1,000 or more that have been paid out since January 2023 we’ve analysed, just 29,542 were paid to someone who has won big before.

Just 3.39 per cent of holdings have won a four-figure prize or more twice.

And what are the chances of winning £1million in any given month with a £50,000 holding? Sadly it’s just one in 1,374,841.

For £30,000 it’s one in 2,291,401 and on a £10,000 holding it’s one in 13.75million.

And what are the prospects for those holding £1,000 and £100?

One in 68.74million and one in 687.42million respectively. But, of course, you have to be in it to win it.

Last year, a holder in Yorkshire scooped a £1million prize from a £100 holding – this was the second smallest holding on record to win the big prize.

The smallest was a £1million win off a £17 holding in 2004. That was won by a holder in London from a bond bought in 1959 – the year that Premium Bonds were launched. 

But in the past year, 15 of the 24 jackpot winners have held the maximum of £50,000 or thereabouts.

Have you been lucky – or unlucky – with Premium Bonds? Email moneymail@dailymail.co.uk