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Dementia diagnoses show no signs of slowing down.
While previous studies predicted cases would double by 2060, that date has now moved up by a decade, according to new research.
Experts warn that not only is this health crisis moving at an alarming rate, but certain groups may also be more at risk than others for developing the degenerative disease.
In the most comprehensive estimate of new dementia cases worldwide, a study published Monday in JAMA Neurology looked at multiple studies spanning almost 40,000 people across 18 countries.
Researchers from UNSW Sydney’s Center for Healthy Brain Aging analyzed data from 22 studies and found that there were 11.4 million new dementia cases in 2023 — a number that’s projected to more than double to 24.7 million by 2050.
This means that every year, the equivalent of the population of Australia will develop dementia, according to geriatrician and Director of Research and Innovation for the Northwell Institute for Healthy Aging, Dr. Liron Sinvani.
“In terms of the scale, obviously, this number of new dementia cases is staggering,” Sinvani told The Post. “This is not a future problem. It’s an accelerating epidemic crisis that demands immediate attention.”
The new study focused on incidence — the rate at which people develop dementia or new cases per year — instead of prevalence, or the total number of people living with the condition at a given time.
The rapidly rising numbers are due to aging populations, with Sinvani noting that about 1 in 9 people have dementia after 65, “but after 85, it could be almost 1 in 3.”
However, two groups saw higher cases of progressive erosion of memory, concentration and judgment: women and those living in low- and middle-income countries.
“Even when controlling for age, the study showed that incidence, not just prevalence, was significantly higher in women, more than men,” Sinvani said.
Rates were higher among women, with 10.6 cases per 1,000 people compared to 8.6 among men, which Sinvani posits may be due to “something biological, social or environmental that’s putting women at greater risk.”
Meanwhile, new dementia cases were 64% higher in people from low- and middle-income countries compared to high-income countries.
This means that countries with the least amount of resources for diagnosis, treatment and care will deal with more cases.
Education level also played a role in determining who was more susceptible to the neurodegenerative disease, with lower education being strongly linked to dementia incidents.
An earlier study from 2024 reported similar findings, identifying 14 modifiable risk factors that accounted for nearly half of dementia cases, with education being one.
“Understanding these differences is critical if we are to develop dementia prevention, diagnosis and care strategies that respond to the populations facing the greatest future risk,” lead study author Dr. Ashleigh Vella said in a press release.
However, prevention is possible by looking at high-income countries where cases have declined over recent decades.
The reasons behind the drop? Managing risk factors like cardiovascular health, lowering the risk of health conditions like heart disease and type 2 diabetes and increasing physical activity.
Improved education around dementia is also important for prevention, with Sinvani noting that “we need to be thinking about this as a holistic prevention of dementia that will impact the whole world.”
In order to prepare for an influx of cases in the future, she suggests prioritizing women for dementia screening and prevention efforts, in addition to improving healthcare system infrastructure.
The biggest factor that will determine future cases is prevention in the present.
“We need to improve education, physical activity and obesity,” Sinvani said. “We need to manage blood pressure, diabetes and cholesterol. We really need to be promoting physical activity, social engagement, education, and reducing smoking and air pollution.”