The BYU football program will return to action on Saturday against the UCF Knights. Despite being 6-0 and ranked 2nd in the AP Poll, the Cougars are only favored by a touchdown against the 3-3 Knights. BYU is the better team, certainly, but UCF has been competitive in every game and the betting line reflects that.
BYU will have advantages in key areas in this game. In this article, we will highlight the matchups that favor BYU the most.
BYU's Defense Has the Upper Hand...in Almost Every Metric
Of the advanced metrics that we look at each week in our weekly data run, the BYU defense holds the upper hand in all but one: red zone touchdown rate. Points per drive, yards per play, success rate, explosive rate, stuff rate, and havoc rate favor Kelly Poppinga's defense.
On paper, this is a game that BYU's defense should control. BYU will have a great chance to keep UCF behind the sticks. UCF ranks 122nd in offensive success rate and BYU ranks 18th in success rate allowed. UCF ranks 114th in stuff rate allowed. A stuffed run is a run that goes for one yard or less. 33% of UCF's rushes have been stuffed this season. BYU, meanwhile, has been one of the best teams at stuffing the run with a stuff rate of 35% - good enough for 11th in college football.
Once UCF is in long third down situations, BYU should be able to get off the field. The Knights rank 114th in conversion down percentage.
If BYU can limit the UCF run game, it will be really challenging for the Knights to move the chains through the air, and the data suggests BYU has a great chance to make UCF one-dimensional. BYU is 22nd is rush success rate allowed and UCF is 104th in rush success rate.
In games against P4 teams, UCF has averaged 18 points per game. BYU's defense has allowed 15 points per game against P4 teams. As long as BYU doesn't give UCF short fields to work with, they should hold UCF to less than 20 points.
It's worth noting that UCF will start backup quarterback Keyone Jenkins at quarterback. Starter Alonza Barnett III has been out the last five weeks due to injury.
Pass Success
Some national analysts were shocked when BYU had success throwing the football against Notre Dame. Our readers were not - we pointed out going into that game that BYU had already faced two defenses that were better against the pass: TCU and Arizona. By the numbers, UCF is the worst P4 pass defense that BYU will have faced this season.
The defense has been the better unit for UCF this season. The Knights rank 39th in points per drive allowed. However, they have been better against the run than the pass. UCF ranks 104th in pass success rate allowed. That's an area where BYU should have success as the Cougars rank 31st in pass success rate.
One caveat to this: the weather. Rain is in the forecast, particularly in the second half. Bear Bachmeier has struggled to throw the football in the rain in the only two rain games he's played. While those two games came against great pass defenses (Arizona 2025 & TCU 2026), it's reasonable to believe that Bachmeier could struggle again in wet conditions. If it rains throughout this game, BYU's offense could get stuck in a predictable loop of short screens and runs.
UCF's chances to win this game will increase if it's really wet and rainy.
Matchup to Watch: Touchdowns in Scoring Position
The matchup to watch in this game is BYU's offense against UCF's defense in scoring position. Scoring position is defined as the drives that reach the defense's 40 or closer. BYU has been one of the best offenses in college football at converting those chances into touchdowns. BYU has scored touchdowns on 80% of scoring position drives which ranks 2nd nationally.
UCF ranks 18th in touchdowns allowed per scoring drive. The Knights have only allowed touchdowns on 36% of scoring drives, making them a classic "bend-don't-break" style of defense.
If BYU converts its scoring opportunities into touchdowns, the UCF offense won't be able to keep up and BYU will easily cover the spread. If the Cougars settle for field goals, this game will be competitive throughout.
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