- Job switchers are experiencing better wage growth than job stayers.
- Last year, both groups saw similar increases, defying historical trends.
- Still, not everyone can leave their job or find a new opportunity right now.
It's once again better to switch jobs than stay in your current gig if you want a raise.
"Wage growth for workers who change jobs is picking up again in 2026, even as raises for those who stay put keep slowing," Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, vice president for macroeconomic research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in a LinkedIn post.
That's based on 12-month moving averages of median wage growth for job switchers and stayers tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta using Current Population Survey data.
Year-over-year wage growth for job switchers has been 4.4% for four straight months, while growth for job stayers falls short, with September's estimate at 3.5%. The gap between the two groups shrank last year, including a brief period where stayers actually saw slightly better wage growth than switchers. The recent trend could be the start of a return to the historical norm of a healthy job-switching premium.
"The first half of this year was the anomaly, and the low-hire environment is to blame," said Chris Martin, senior economist at Glassdoor. "Job seekers had to take what they could get, and that often meant compromise: fewer promotions and lower wages."
However, some workers don't have the luxury to switch jobs right now. The quits rate has been bouncing between 1.9% and 2% for a little over a year now, far below the 3% rate a few years ago during the "Great Resignation," suggesting lower confidence among workers. Openings have been similarly sluggish and are substantially down from the March 2022 record of 7.5%.
"The return of this premium for job switchers is an early sign of improving prospects for job seekers, though the hiring rate remains low and job searches are taking longer," Martin said.
With job openings basically in line with the unemployment level, AI making it easier to send out résumés, and job losses in white-collar sectors, workers might find it tough to say goodbye to their current role.
"While job hopping still comes with higher pay, which is especially helpful for workers feeling the squeeze of inflation, the opportunities to job hop are few and far between," said ZipRecruiter economist Nicole Bachaud.
People can improve their experience while stuck in their role. Bachaud suggests learning AI skills, which may be helpful in your current position or to note on your résumé.
"For workers who are feeling stuck in their current position, it's important not to fall into the complacency trap," Bachaud said. "Beyond wages, the labor market is shifting rapidly as AI reshapes jobs."
Whether you're applying for a new higher-paying job or seeking a raise from your current employer, it's not a bad idea to broadcast your accomplishments. People can "loud work" and boast their achievements and contributions to their manager and colleagues as well as beyond the workplace, such as through LinkedIn posts.
"We stop ourselves from self-promotion because we think it's bad, but self-promotion is the breadcrumbs that lead to the titles and the promotions and the pay raises," said Jasmine Escalera, a career expert with MyPerfectResume.