With the appeals verdict in Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon's political funds case due in one day, attention is turning to how the ruling will affect the running of the city government. If the appeals court upholds a penalty heavy enough to cost him his seat, the Seoul Metropolitan Council is likely to tighten its oversight and major policies could lose momentum. If the penalty falls below that threshold, uncertainty over whether Oh keeps his post would ease, bringing more stability to city administration.
The 7th Criminal Division of the Seoul High Court, presided over by Ku Hoe-keun, will deliver the appeals ruling at 2 p.m. on the 23rd, according to legal circles on the 22nd. Oh was indicted on charges that he commissioned opinion polls from political broker Myung Tae-kyun ahead of the 2021 Seoul mayoral by-election and had a donor cover the cost. The lower court found him guilty on some of the charges and imposed a fine of 10 million won [about $7,000], an amount that would cost him the mayoralty.
The ruling matters not only for Oh's political standing but for the city government as a whole. He can remain in office until the Supreme Court finalizes the sentence, but observers say the appeals outcome could change everything from his relations with the council to the mood within the civil service and the pace of key policies.
If the appeals court upholds the disqualifying penalty, Oh's command of city government could weaken. The possibility of losing his post would remain, and a legal fight stretching to the Supreme Court would add to the uncertainty surrounding city administration. Should the Supreme Court also rule against him, Oh could petition the Constitutional Court to review the ruling, raising the prospect of a prolonged legal battle.
The immediate effect would be stronger pushback from the Seoul Metropolitan Council, where the Democratic Party holds a majority. Next month's parliamentary-style audit of city agencies is likely to focus on Oh's signature projects, including the Hangang Bus. Pressure to cut or rework funding for those projects could also grow during the review of next year's main budget.
The mood inside the civil service is another variable. If the Supreme Court finalizes a penalty that removes Oh from office, the mayor could be replaced, and senior officials may grow cautious about decisions on new or contentious policies. Signature projects Oh has pushed, the Hangang Bus among them, could lose momentum as the council steps up budget scrutiny and policy checks.
Conversely, if the appeals court spares him the disqualifying penalty, much of the uncertainty around city government would ease. Legal risk would not disappear entirely, since the case could still go to the Supreme Court depending on whether prosecutors appeal, but concerns about his losing the mayoralty would recede, giving Oh more room to advance major policies.
Relations with the council would also shift. Democratic Party scrutiny would not vanish, but disputes over Oh's legal exposure would likely soften. Instead, debate could center on individual policies, such as the Hangang Bus service's performance and safety, the effectiveness of housing supply measures and the budget justification for major projects.
Anxiety within the civil service would also diminish, potentially speeding up major policies. Decisions on new projects and pressing issues that had been approached cautiously because of the possibility of a change in mayor could move faster, and Oh's priority projects, including the Hangang Bus and the "Seoul Without Loneliness" initiative, would gain support.
Even without the disqualifying penalty, however, political confrontation with the council and controversy over individual projects would not go away. How far Oh can restore a cooperative relationship with the council and deliver tangible results on major projects is seen as the key to how city government is run from here.
The appeals ruling on the 23rd thus looks set to be a turning point for city administration. Its impact is expected to become concrete in the agency audit and the review of next year's budget bill that follow.