Kathmandu, October 25
Rain is expected in several parts of Nepal from Thursday as a low-pressure system develops over the Bay of Bengal and moves towards the country. Preliminary forecasts suggest that at least 29 districts, including the Himalayan district of Manang, could be at higher risk of adverse weather.
According to weather analysis by Dr Binod Pokharel, an associate professor at Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, the system could bring rainfall for three to four days, with heavy rain possible in some areas.
The system is expected to move towards Nepal via the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, with rainfall activity likely to intensify from Thursday night.
The preliminary assessment indicates that Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces could experience greater impacts, while Karnali and Sudurpashchim provinces are expected to be comparatively less affected.
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology’s Weather Forecasting Division has also indicated that rainfall activity is likely to increase in the coming days. However, it has not yet published a detailed assessment of expected rainfall amounts and high-risk areas.
29 districts could face higher risk
Pokharel has published a preliminary risk map indicating that some locations could receive more than 150 millimetres of rain between October 29 and November 1.
The map identifies 29 districts, including several in Lumbini, Gandaki, Bagmati and Koshi provinces, as potentially facing a comparatively higher risk of heavy rainfall.
Pokharel has cautioned that the forecast remains preliminary. The system’s path, rainfall intensity and the districts most at risk could change as weather conditions develop.
Three weather systems could combine
According to Pokharel, three weather systems could influence Nepal’s weather in the coming days.
The northeast monsoon remains active over southern India, where a low-pressure system is also developing. Some areas of southern India have already experienced heavy rainfall.
A separate low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal is expected to be the main system approaching Nepal. The continuing influence of westerly winds could further increase the likelihood of rainfall.
Pokharel said the interaction between moisture-laden air arriving from the Bay of Bengal and conditions in the upper atmosphere could also contribute to heavy rainfall in Nepal.
Caution urged in Manang and Himalayan areas
Pokharel has called for particular attention to Himalayan districts, including Manang, where the preliminary forecast indicates the possibility of heavy rainfall.
Weather experts have warned of potential flooding in the Tarai and Madhesh, landslides in the hills and snowfall in Himalayan areas.
Thursday night through Friday night has been identified as a period requiring particular caution, although the timing and intensity of the weather could change.
Experts advise against travel and harvesting
Dr Dharmaraj Upreti, a meteorologist and executive chief of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, said the system developing over the Bay of Bengal could move towards Nepal through the Indian states of Odisha and Bihar.
He warned of the possibility of heavy snowfall in Himalayan areas and moderate to heavy rainfall in some eastern districts.
Upreti has advised people planning to return to their workplaces after Dashain to avoid travelling on Friday and Saturday. He has also recommended postponing Himalayan trekking plans during the period.
People planning to harvest paddy on Thursday, Friday or Saturday have been advised to postpone the work.
Meteorologist Ujjwal Upadhyaya has similarly advised against long-distance travel, harvesting and bringing in crops, and trekking between October 28 and November 1.
He has urged travellers to exercise additional caution on major highways, particularly the Prithvi Highway and BP Highway.
As the forecast is still preliminary, authorities and the public are advised to follow updated weather bulletins for changes in the system and any official warnings.
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