Trump can strike Iran again. He cannot bomb Hormuz open

A navy can control water. It can’t make a merchant captain sail through it. Warships stop missiles, sure, but no admiral can promise a shipping company that its crew, its cargo and its insurance cover will all survive the next voyage. That gap is the real problem in the US-Iran war, and airstrikes alone won’t close it. Look at what happened this month. Kpler data shows nearly 20.8 million barrels of oil passed through the strait on 8th October, but only 2.9 million on 11th October. A single day proves little, and Washington disputes independent tracking of the strait anyway. CENTCOM says about 97 percent of ships seeking to transit have done so without being hit. Still, the drop shows […]