▲ AI PRISM* Personalized Economic Briefing
* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an artificial intelligence-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six news items tailored to each reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ Memory bottleneck: Nvidia is co-designing the base die, a core component of its own high-bandwidth memory called NVHBM, with Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and TSMC, bringing together two companies that compete in the foundry business. With the data transfer speed of HBM unable to keep pace with graphics processing unit computing speed, and supply shortages compounding that technical barrier, the plan to draw on both TSMC's 3-nanometer logic process and its production capacity appears to be gaining traction.
■ China's DRAM pursuit: ChangXin Memory Technologies, China's largest DRAM maker, signaled a 589% to 619% surge in third-quarter revenue, accelerating its pursuit of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix (000660.KS). Shares of the Korean chipmakers tumbled after CXMT said it would release a next-generation DRAM this year, and pressure mounted from Apple's trial adoption and remarks by Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk about the possibility of increased output. On Wall Street, however, counterarguments have followed that the technology has not been sufficiently verified.
■ MASGA barriers: Even after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum expanding the use of overseas shipyards, the U.S. Congress and the shipbuilding industry are pushing back in the name of protecting domestic industry. The National Defense Authorization Act passed by the House includes a provision restricting purchases of warships built abroad, and existing laws such as the Jones Act and the Byrnes-Tollefson Amendment remain obstacles, narrowing the path for implementing Korea-U.S. shipbuilding cooperation.
[News of Interest to Corporate CEOs]
- Key points: Nvidia is working with Samsung Electronics and TSMC to custom-design the base die for NVHBM, its own HBM. The base die takes in the memory controller previously housed in the GPU while cutting the physical layer area by 60% from standard HBM, which widens bandwidth by up to 30% and cuts power consumption by 15% compared with standard seventh-generation HBM4E. Behind Nvidia's demand for TSMC's 3-nanometer logic process are integration density and yield. The industry puts TSMC's 3-nanometer yield above 90% and the yield on Samsung Foundry's comparable 2-nanometer process (SF2) at around 60%. Investment bank UBS forecasts HBM demand next year at about 61.5 billion gigabits, up 91% from this year, while new shipments are expected to reach only 54.6 billion gigabits, raising concerns of a supply shortfall of about 10%.
- Key points: In an earnings preview on the 16th, CXMT estimated third-quarter revenue at 114.7 billion to 119.7 billion yuan (about 22.95 trillion to 23.95 trillion won). That is up 589% to 619% from the same period a year earlier and 15% to 20% from the previous quarter. The company also projected a swing to a net profit of 53.395 billion to 54.895 billion yuan (about 10.6 trillion to 10.9 trillion won). Shares of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix plunged 17.8% and 24.3%, respectively, last week alone after CXMT said on the 9th that it would release a server DRAM this year using a 4F² structure that cuts cell area by about 33%. Kevin Cassidy, an analyst at Rosenblatt, raised the possibility that the product could prove to be a paper tiger, saying that given CXMT's process capabilities, its 4F² cell could end up larger than rivals' existing products.
- Key points: Trump signed a presidential memorandum on Aug. 13 this year expanding the use of overseas shipyards. The plan aims to broaden the "Finland model," under which initial vessels are built at foreign shipyards before production facilities are moved to the United States. The U.S. Department of Defense requested a budget of $1.85 billion (about 2.4750 trillion won) to review the construction capacity of allied shipyards and the feasibility of procuring initial vessels. The House, however, inserted a provision into the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act restricting purchases of warships built abroad. The Senate Armed Services Committee also drafted legislation allowing an exception for up to two non-combat support ships on the condition of direct investment in the U.S. shipbuilding industry. With the Jones Act, enacted in 1920, and the Byrnes-Tollefson Amendment, which in principle bars the construction of warships abroad, still in place, conditions for the MASGA project are expected to vary depending on how it is pursued.
[Reference News for Corporate CEOs]
4. Toyota to Convert All Models to Software-Defined Vehicles by 2030
- Key points: Japan's Toyota Motor will install its proprietary software, Arene, in all of its roughly 50 models by 2030, converting them all into software-defined vehicles, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported on the 17th. An SDV is a car whose functions can be upgraded through software updates, much like a smartphone, and the plan covers the 10 million new vehicles shipped annually. Arene began to be installed starting with the RAV4 sport utility vehicle released last year, and Toyota plans to supply it to partner automakers in 2035 and later extend its scope to infrastructure communication devices including robots, housing and utility poles. Toyota has decided to convert all its models to SDVs and focus on business after new-car sales. It aims to raise operating profit from "value chain business," including safe-driving support systems and sales of repair parts, to 3 trillion yen (about 25.4 trillion won) by fiscal 2030, a 40% increase from the current level.
5. "Why Move in a Boom?" Job Changes in Chips Halve
- Key points: According to an analysis by Remember & Company, the number of people who changed jobs in the semiconductor industry in the first half of this year fell about 50% from a year earlier and dropped to about one-third of the level in the first half of 2023. The shift is attributed to a "talent locking" phenomenon, in which employees value the compensation at their current workplace far more highly than the expected gains from moving, as earnings improve at companies including Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. By contrast, data from JobKorea showed that entry-level job postings in the semiconductor sector in the first half of this year surged 47% from the same period last year. Remember's headhunting request data showed that positions left unfilled last year accounted for 83.6% of requests placed again in the first half of this year. Kim Sung-hee, a professor at Korea University's Graduate School of Labor Studies, said small and medium-sized companies must also improve compensation systems and devise incentives to attract talent if they are to narrow the gap with large companies.
6. [Exclusive] National Pension Service Expands Alternative Investments, to Create Data Center Fund
- Key points: The National Pension Service is reviewing the creation of a fund focused on data center investments. It is at the stage of gauging demand from private equity firms and asset managers, and if the fund is confirmed, an outside manager is expected to be selected through a contest. It would be the first time the NPS has created a fund centered on data centers. The move follows Kim Sung-joo, chairman of the National Pension Service, telling a National Assembly briefing in August this year that the NPS would expand investment in artificial intelligence data centers and emerging markets. JLL, the global commercial real estate services firm, forecast that global data center capacity will grow from 103 gigawatts last year to 200 gigawatts by 2030. The domestic market is also expected to grow from the 6 trillion won range in revenue in 2024 to the 11 trillion won range in 2029, pointing to intensifying competition to secure funding.
