KYIV – The feud between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is starting to compromise Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
Strains that have lingered under the surface escalated dramatically over the past week when the Ukrainian president accused the US of throttling vital access to SpaceX’s Starshield satellite technology and delaying supplies of key Patriot interceptors to repel Russian ballistic missile strikes.
Senior NATO officials are concerned the relationship between Zelensky and the US president could be beyond repair and may lead to Ukraine being forced into accepting a painful settlement to the war with Russia, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Zelensky is set to meet Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo on Oct 20 for new peace talks that would also be attended remotely by the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
The breakdown in relations coincides with Trump fighting to salvage his majority in Nov 3 midterm elections.
The argument risks leaving Kyiv at its most vulnerable heading into another frigid winter and with civilian casualties already surging from constant Russian attacks.
“It’s going to be a long, dark, cold winter,” said Justin Logan, director of defence and foreign policy at the Cato Institute in Washington. “It’s almost November, their interceptor stockpiles are close to zero, the Europeans’ ability to replenish them is limited because inventories are limited.”
Secretary-General Mark Rutte is aware of the risks posed by the souring relationship and his main concern is to lower the temperature to make room for pragmatic solutions that ensure Ukraine has what it needs to stay in the fight, a NATO official said.
NATO officials have urged Ukraine to try and deescalate with the US, one of the people said.
If Zelensky won’t do that, then US arms supplies that are being financed mainly by the Europeans through the so-called PURL programme could eventually also be affected given Trump’s unpredictability, according to that person.
The person declined to be named because the talks are private.
The tensions between the US and Ukraine have never been so intense – or so personal – since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022.
Speaking to Bloomberg News on Oct 18, Zelensky accused Trump of trying to pressure Kyiv into surrendering to Moscow.
He also said the US is delaying deliveries of crucial Patriot air defence interceptors used to defend Ukraine’s cities.
And Ukrainian officials now suspect the US is intermittently restricting intelligence sharing and early warning alerts about Russian ballistic missiles.
While Trump has denied ordering disruptions to the Starlink satellite service used by Ukraine to defend against Russian air attacks, the president and his administration have openly criticised Zelensky.
They’re ratcheting up pressure on Ukraine across a number of fronts, even as they lessen the leverage the US has over Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump said on Oct 19 that “somebody else” instead of Zelensky should negotiate on behalf of Ukraine, the day after he attacked him for the energy strikes on Russia in a lengthy post that justified his own policy toward Moscow.
“Russia frankly has been fine on Ukraine,” Trump told reporters. “They haven’t been doing much.”
Behind the scenes, Europeans are trying to help patch things up with the Trump administration, one of the people said.
But there’s no plan so far for a trip to Washington, another person said, something that officials have done during previous dust-ups between Zelensky and Trump, most famously following the their face-to-face confrontation in the Oval Office in February 2025.
The dispute is existential for Europe.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned on Oct 19 that Putin is seeking not only to defeat Ukraine, but to also undermine democracy in Europe.
“I’m trying to convince Donald Trump each time I’m meeting him that this should be in his own interest,” Merz told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Oct 19. “A stable Europe, European continent, European Union as a partner in the world is something which is worthwhile for the Americans as well.”
Trump, who has pushed European leaders to shoulder most aid for Ukraine in the conflict, is ratcheting up pressure on what most analysts and even a growing number of Republican congressional allies believe is the wrong side of the war – not only by holding back offensive military support for Ukraine but also by undermining core defensive capabilities such as air defence.
The fire under the latest conflict was lit by Trump’s unilateral decision to make a deal with Russia for diesel exports earlier in October and his waiving of congressionally mandated sanctions targeting Russian energy, a series of moves that are likely to help Moscow finance its war machine.
One obvious sore point for the US president is Ukraine’s successful campaign of long-range drone strikes on Russian refineries.
The administration has tried to divert blame for rising energy prices away from the war the US started in Iran and towards the fighting between Russia and Ukraine ahead of the midterms in which Republicans are expected to lose control of at least one chamber of Congress.
Zelensky said in Oct 19’s interview that the US is delaying Patriot interceptor deliveries that Kyiv has already paid for.
The US is now supplying Ukraine with only 12 Patriot missiles a month, approximately a quarter of the amount delivered under President Joe Biden.
The Trump administration is also selling the missiles to Ukraine, while Biden provided them for free.
“The US inventory of Patriot missiles is very low, about 800 by our estimate,” Mark Cancian, a former US defence budget expert now at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
The Pentagon is worried about what is still required for operations in the Middle East, as well as in a potential conflict with China, he said.
Asked on Oct 19 if the relationship between the two administrations is fundamentally broken, Secretary of State Marco Rubio avoided a direct answer, saying that Trump’s goal is to end the war.
“He’s willing to do whatever he can to try to bring it to an end, even if that means having to nudge both sides to get there,” Rubio said. BLOOMBERG