Instability across the Middle East has driven extreme volatility in global oil prices. Much of the impact stems from blocked shipping routes for crude: Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to the United States, and Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen then took control of Mocha and other points along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. With U.S. midterm elections next month, Washington is pressing Seoul to contribute to navigational safety in the Strait of Hormuz, while opposition to sending troops remains considerable at home.
Jang Ji-hyang, director of the Center for Regional Studies at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and a Middle East specialist, said in an interview with Seoul Economic Daily on the 8th that "the government should have supported the United States early in the U.S.-Iran war, either by expanding the operational area of the Cheonghae naval unit or by sending non-combat assets such as minesweepers to the Strait of Hormuz for a short period." Jang earned her doctorate in political science from the University of Texas at Austin and, after serving as a policy adviser to the foreign ministry, now serves as an adviser to the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of National Defense and the National Intelligence Service, and as a standing member of the Middle East Industrial Cooperation Forum under the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy. Her book "The Essential Middle East Course" offers an accessible account of the region's politics, economy and history.
On the question of a deployment to the Strait of Hormuz, Jang said "the government's failure to act in time is regrettable." In April, President Lee Jae-myung told a video conference of the Freedom of Navigation Initiative in the Strait of Hormuz, attended by leaders of more than 50 countries, that Korea would "make a substantive contribution to guaranteeing freedom of navigation." Yet as of recently, the government had still not submitted a deployment consent motion to the National Assembly, a key step in the process. Jang said the government "likely kept putting off a decision, judging that this was a policy unlikely to win broad public support." She added: "In the meantime, major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar became Iranian targets. Gulf states have come to doubt their strategic partnership with Korea." She continued, "Regardless of whether the government was conservative or progressive, Korea has always described Middle Eastern countries as cooperative partners. But we stood by while Iran attacked them. It is inevitable that questions will be raised about whether we can maintain the same relationship of trust with them after the war in the Middle East."
Jang argued that the government should resolve the deployment question immediately, in line with its principles as a responsible member of the international community. "In the Iraq war, where the deployment decision was made under the Roh Moo-hyun administration, the weapons of mass destruction the United States cited as justification were never actually confirmed," she said. "This deployment, by contrast, has the justification of protecting global energy security." According to the International Energy Agency, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit route through which roughly 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade passed last year. For Korea, Middle Eastern crude accounted for 70% of oil imports last year, and most of it was shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic opposition to a deployment remains considerable, citing risks to service members' safety and the prospect of worsening relations with Iran. Citing the attack on the Korean-flagged vessel Namu in the Strait of Hormuz in May, Jang said: "Even when we had not deployed, we came under an attack believed to have been carried out by Iran's Revolutionary Guard, the country's hardline faction. We need to keep diplomatic channels with Iran open, but it is difficult to get along with a military-centered hardline camp."
She expects the Iran war to become a drawn-out fight marked by repeated temporary cease-fires and collapsed negotiations. "Many Korean companies want to know whether the war will end, but there is no clear answer," she said. "Iran's hardliners will never give up nuclear weapons, and the United States will find that hard to accept." She added: "Even if the United States and Iran sign a memorandum of understanding to end the war, the current pattern could repeat itself, with the deal being nullified before long. The most likely path is that this process continues and negotiations inch forward at a slow pace."
Jang said the Iran war has also brought signs of positive change in Middle Eastern countries. "Gulf states built around conservative monarchies are undertaking unprecedented reforms in the face of a national crisis," she said. "After coming under Iranian attack, several Middle Eastern countries have moved toward normalizing relations with Israel. These countries may adopt forms of governance that are more rational and more advanced than in the past."