BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —What happened Lula joined a “March for Democracy” on Avenida Paulista on Sunday.
- —The charge He told reporters the court made “many biased decisions,” per Poder360.
- —The trigger A Sunday order suspended a pro-Lula WhatsApp channel.
- —Crowd size “Thousands,” per Agência Brasil; no official estimate was published.
- —The runoff Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro on Sunday, 25 October.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Lula a 12.5% chance (11 October, 4:29 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 87% and Kalshi at 88% (Lula: 13% and 13%), as of 11 October, 5:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Trailing in the polls, the president criticised the judges running the election before joining a São Paulo street march.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva accused Brazil’s electoral court of “biased decisions” on Sunday, 11 October. He then spoke at a rally on São Paulo’s Avenida Paulista, two weeks before the 25 October runoff.
His remarks followed a court order that told WhatsApp, owned by the US company Meta, to suspend a pro-Lula channel. For US investors in Latin America’s largest economy, it marks a sharper clash between the incumbent and the election’s referees.
What Lula Said About the Court
Lula spoke to journalists in São Paulo before the march, the news site Poder360 reported. “We will not accept undue interference by the Electoral Justice,” he said.
He said he had seen “many biased decisions” for several days. He said the head of the electoral court should behave in a “civilised, republican” way and let the election run without interference.
Lula said his lawyers would ask the court’s president for an explanation. He added that his Workers’ Party (PT) would go to court that day to “balance the game” on social-media reach.
Poder360 published the remarks with a 94-second video of Lula speaking. Whether the party’s petition was actually filed on Sunday was not confirmed by Sunday evening.
The WhatsApp Order Behind the Remarks
The court is the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which runs and polices Brazilian elections. Its president, Kassio Nunes Marques, is a Supreme Court justice appointed in 2020 by former president Jair Bolsonaro.
On Sunday he suspended “Exército do Lula” (Lula’s Army), a WhatsApp channel created by Lula ally and federal deputy André Janones. Poder360 put its following at about 3.3 million.
The Rio Times reported that order in Brazil Gives WhatsApp 3 Hours to Shut Pro-Lula Channel. Later on Sunday afternoon, Agência Brasil reported that the court’s inspector-general, Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva, overturned the suspension.
The March on Avenida Paulista
The “Marcha pela Democracia” filled most of the avenue, São Paulo’s best-known protest route, according to the state news agency Agência Brasil. It gave no crowd figure, and no police or official estimate was published.
Social movements and pop-music fan communities organised the march. Organised supporter groups of the football clubs Palmeiras and Corinthians, the São Paulo Pride organisers and student groups backed it.
Lula spoke from a sound truck outside MASP, the São Paulo Museum of Art. His official YouTube channel streamed the event live as “Lula em São Paulo: O Brasil Pronto Pra Mais.”
What Else Lula Said on Sunday
Speaking to reporters before the march, Lula called the coming week decisive. He pointed to Wednesday’s Senate vote on ending the “6×1” schedule, six working days for one day off.
He challenged the Liberal Party (PL), Flávio Bolsonaro’s conservative party, to show whether it backs two rest days a week. He called an opposition push to delay the vote until after the runoff an attempt to deceive voters.
He attacked the spending cuts announced by Flávio, which he called a “tesouraço” (big scissors). He compared them with the cuts made by Argentina’s President Javier Milei.
Lula said a constitutional amendment creating a Ministry of Public Security could advance this week. He also urged voters over 70 to turn out, citing first-round abstention of 21.08%.
Who Is in the Race
Lula, 80, leads the left-wing PT and has been president since January 2023. He is seeking a fourth term.
Flávio Bolsonaro is a PL senator for Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro. He finished first in the 4 October first round and leads the runoff polls.
What It Means for You
US funds hold Brazilian shares and NYSE-listed firms such as Petrobras, Vale and Itaú. A sitting president questioning the electoral court adds uncertainty before the result.
Meta, which owns WhatsApp, is now at the centre of a Brazilian campaign fight. US tech firms face fast takedown orders from the court until 25 October.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 86.9% · Lula 12.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 88% · Lula 13%
As of 11 October, 5:20 pm ET (22:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
On Polymarket, with about US$180 million traded on the election, bets gave Lula 12.5% at 4:29 p.m. ET on Sunday. Its margin market put a Flávio win by 4 to 8 points at 49%.
On Kalshi, which US regulators at the CFTC oversee, bets gave Flávio 87% and Lula 13% at 11:07 a.m. ET on Sunday.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
There is no official crowd figure for the march. No public reply from the TSE to Lula’s criticism was found by Sunday evening.
It is also unclear whether the PT filed its promised petition, and on what grounds.
What Comes Next
Monday, 12 October, is a national holiday in Brazil. The Senate votes on the 6×1 work week on Wednesday, 14 October.
Brazilians choose between Lula and Flávio on Sunday, 25 October.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Lula say about the electoral court?
He said he would not accept undue interference and saw many biased decisions. He said his party would go to court over social-media reach.
Why is Lula criticising the court?
On Sunday the court’s president suspended a pro-Lula WhatsApp channel. Another judge later overturned that order, Agência Brasil reported.
How many people joined the march?
Agência Brasil reported thousands on Avenida Paulista. No police or official crowd estimate was published.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
The runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is on Sunday, 25 October. Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time.
Sources: Lula official YouTube channel, “Lula em São Paulo: O Brasil Pronto Pra Mais” (live stream, 11 October 2026); Agência Brasil, march on Avenida Paulista; Agência Brasil, inspector-general overturns channel suspension; Poder360, Lula on the electoral court (all accessed 11 October 2026).