The world’s LNG trading map is undergoing its biggest upheaval in years, with the near-paralysis of Gulf exports redirecting cargoes across oceans, forcing Asian buyers towards alternative suppliers and pushing European gas prices to their highest levels since 2022.<
While gas prices approach $30 per million British thermal units, LNG carrier spot earnings remain remarkably weak, with the Baltic Exchange assessing the US Gulf-Europe route at just $21,200 a day last week.
Nearly eight months into the Hormuz crisis, oil exporters have found ways around the chokepoint. Kpler estimates that non-Iranian Middle Eastern oil flows, including alternative routes, recovered to prewar levels last week. LNG remains a different proposition, with Qatar unable to replicate the pipelines and offshore transfers that have restored much of the region’s crude trade.
Vortexa recorded just five confirmed LNG carrier transits of Hormuz last week, against a four-week average of 12. Only two were laden outbound voyages. Ras Laffan loaded five cargoes totalling 400,000 tonnes.
Kpler identified 13 Qatari LNG loadings during October 1-13, but only four ships were broadcasting active AIS signals. The remaining nine were verified through satellite imagery, tug tracking and other intelligence.
The Al Kharsaah, carrying Qatari LNG towards Poland via the Red Sea, came under fire from a small boat in the Gulf of Aden on October 17. Its armed security team returned warning shots, forcing the attackers to retreat. The voyage could deliver Europe’s first Qatari cargo since April.
The disruption is now being measured in cancelled contracts as well as missing ships. Italy’s Edison has received force majeure notices covering 35 Qatari LNG cargoes, equivalent to 4.6bn cu m of gas, with deliveries suspended until early December. Damage inflicted on two liquefaction trains at Ras Laffan in March has also removed 12.8m tonnes of annual production capacity, with repairs potentially taking years.
The US is meanwhile cementing its position as the indispensable swing supplier. American terminals dispatched 2.5m tonnes across 36 cargoes last week, according to Vortexa, while official US figures show exports surged 23% in the first half of 2026.
There is an irony in the American resurgence. QatarEnergy owns 70% of Golden Pass in Texas, where an expanding export operation is helping diversify its supply portfolio beyond the troubled Gulf.
Europe is capturing an increasing share of Atlantic supply. S&P Global data shows Europe and Turkey received 76 of the 143 US LNG cargoes delivered in September. Egypt has also become a major destination, taking 14 American cargoes during the month as declining domestic production increases its dependence on imported gas.
The reshuffle is particularly visible in India. Oman, whose LNG terminals sit outside Hormuz, displaced the US as India’s largest supplier in September. Kpler recorded 590,000 tonnes arriving from Oman, compared with 350,000 tonnes from Nigeria and 340,000 tonnes from the US. Qatar, once India’s dominant supplier, managed just 100,000 tonnes.
Not all Asian buyers are responding alike. Indian LNG imports were 7% higher year-on-year in September despite elevated prices. China, Japan and South Korea have proved more reluctant to chase expensive spot cargoes.
Japan’s major utilities held 2.64m tonnes of LNG in inventory earlier this month, their highest stockpile since December 2023. South Korea is increasingly relying on coal generation, with Kpler projecting available coal plant utilisation of 63.5% in November and December. IFCHOR Galbraiths calculates that South Korean coal imports rose 14% year-on-year during January-September, while Japan’s increased 8%.
China’s September LNG imports fell to 5.2m tonnes, according to Kpler, as weaker industrial demand and growing pipeline supplies reduced its need for seaborne gas.
Europe has less flexibility. Gas storage was just 74.6% full this week, nearly 15 percentage points below its five-year seasonal average, with Germany at around 61%. A cold winter would intensify competition for Atlantic cargoes, particularly as the EU prepares to end remaining Russian LNG imports from January 1.
Stronger European demand for US gas has shortened average Atlantic voyages, releasing vessels back into the market more quickly and depressing tonne-mile demand. Baltic Exchange assessments last week put the US Gulf-Japan route at $49,000 a day, more than twice the equivalent European route.
Fleet expansion adds another complication. Flex LNG estimates the global orderbook at approximately 285 vessels, equivalent to 37% of the existing fleet, with around 95 deliveries expected next year.
Beyond the immediate crisis, another geographical shift is gathering momentum. LNG Canada’s September investment decision to double capacity to 28m tonnes annually reinforces the emergence of a Pacific export corridor offering Asian customers shorter voyages than traditional Atlantic suppliers.
Meanwhile, Europe’s Russian LNG ban could force Arctic cargoes towards more distant Asian destinations, creating fresh shipping demand but also logistical and sanctions-related complications.
The emerging picture for LNG shipping is one of greater geographical diversification, increasingly unpredictable cargo movements and an uncomfortable mismatch between the price of gas and the value of carrying it.