Amin Saikal, Australian National University; The University of Western Australia; Victoria University

The Middle East has seen many explosions of violence in recent years. But while the US-Iran war has grabbed the headlines this year, the rapidly escalating conflict between the Houthis and Yemen’s internationally recognised government and Saudi Arabia risks becoming just as consequential for the region.

The complexity of Yemen’s internal conflict cannot be underestimated. The violence is linked to two major regional powers – Iran and Saudi Arabia – as well as the ongoing US-Israel confrontation with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran backs the Houthis (also known as Ansar Allah or Partisans of God), while Saudi Arabia supports the Yemeni government (known as the Presidential Leadership Council or PLC). The United States is also standing beside its de facto ally, the Saudis, while Russia and China are aligned with Iran.

And Riyadh’s other regional allies, Turkey and Pakistan, have just agreed to activate their newly signed mutual defence pact and deploy troops to help defend Saudi Arabia if it’s attacked again.

Given how many actors are involved, the conflict could quickly spiral out of control and engulf the entire region, further destabilising global fuel supplies.

Houthis gaining ground

The US-Iran war has reached a stalemate in recent months. Tehran remains adamant that it controls the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for 20% of the world’s daily supply of oil and liquefied natural gas before the war. And US President Donald Trump has been running hot and cold about how to end the conflict. Neither America’s military might, nor its maximum economic pressure, has worked so far.

Tehran’s Houthi allies, who control one-third of Yemen (including the capital Sanaa), entered the fray to support Iran earlier this year. They have tightened their control of the vital Bab al-Mandab Strait that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

And they have made territorial gains in Yemen since July, with the aim of taking over the whole country, while also attacking Saudi oil facilities, tankers and its main airport in Riyadh. An attack in recent days again halted the pumping of oil through the East-West Pipeline, which Riyadh has been using to export oil via Bab al Mandab since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Yemeni and Saudi forces have launched a counteroffensive in recent days in an attempt to retake all the territory held by the Houthis, raising the spectre of a return to a major civil war and a potentially dire humanitarian crisis for Yemenis.

Riyadh has asked Washington to carry out airstrikes on the Houthis, but Trump has declined the request to get actively involved, instead offering support from US intelligence and military analysts in the country.

Trump has been disinclined to expand the US-Iran war and get the US embroiled in another conflict while the potential for a restart of the war with Iran remains very real.

In addition, despite his denials that he is concerned, Trump will no doubt be aware of the impact of the Iran war on American consumers, with higher petroleum prices and cost of living pressures. His Republican Party is urgently trying to shore up its voter base with the midterm elections now just a month away.

Without direct US involvement, Riyadh has looked for support from its new security partners, Pakistan and Turkey. Before committing to deploy military forces to Saudi Arabia this week, the two had appeared cautious about getting involved – caught between the need to support Saudi Arabia and not to offend Iran and its strategic partners, Russia and China.

The renewed conflict has already taken a very heavy toll on the Yemeni people, with more than 800 killed, 3,000 injured and 158,000 displaced. This comes on the top of the hundreds of thousands of people who have died since the civil war and Saudi-led intervention began in 2014–15. These deaths were due to fighting, as well as indirect impacts such as hunger, disease, and lack of health services and infrastructure.

Where is this going?

The worse the fighting becomes in Yemen, the greater the impact on the world economy.

While the Strait of Hormuz remains partially inoperable due to the fear of ships being attacked, some tankers have managed to sail through after making deals with Iran’s new Persian Gulf Strait Authority, or with US escort protection.

The US energy secretary, Chris Wright, recently claimed 13 million barrels of crude oil were getting through the strait daily. This has been disputed by Iran.

On October 4, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the strait will not reopen fully until the US meets Iranian demands. These include a ceasefire on all fronts, the lifting of the US blockade of Iranian ports and the unfreezing of Iran’s assets.

And after the Houthis announced a blockade of Saudi ports and started attacking Saudi-linked ships in the Red Sea in July, disruptions in the global oil supply are expected to worsen.

At the root of this expanding and multi-dimensional crisis is the US war of choice against Iran. If Trump does escalate that conflict with more lethal force, Tehran is prepared to retaliate. It has warned the US’ Arab allies in the Gulf they could be targeted more severely than before.

The overall situation remains very explosive, unless Washington and Tehran pull back from the brink and opt for a negotiated deal. This seems like a distant goal, but it is still possible.

Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern Studies, Australian National University; The University of Western Australia; Victoria University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.