SAN ANTONIO: After more than three decades of Republican dominance, Democrats in Texas see a rare chance to break through in November's midterm elections, as voter anger over immigration raids and the cost of living tests US President Donald Trump's support.
No Democrat has won statewide office in the conservative southern state since 1994, and Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
But with a US Senate seat and the governorship at stake on Nov 3, recent polls suggest Republicans face an unusually competitive challenge.
At the forefront is James Talarico, a 37-year-old former teacher and state lawmaker whose blend of Christian faith, economic populism and appeals for political unity has helped make the Senate race one of the country's most closely watched.
A University of Texas poll released this week put Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general and a staunch Trump ally, by 50% to 47% - a lead within the survey's margin of error.
A separate UMass Lowell poll found the two candidates tied.
A Presbyterian seminarian, Talarico has sought to attract independents and Republicans disillusioned with Trump, arguing that Texans have more in common than the country's increasingly bitter political divisions suggest.
"I'll always put Texas before any political party," he has said.
Trump, however, has campaigned aggressively for Paxton, warning at a recent rally in San Antonio that losing the seat could jeopardise the Republicans' narrow Senate majority.
"It's a killer in Congress because we have a very close majority. We can't let that happen," Trump said, mocking Talarico with the nickname "Talafreako" and accusing Democrats of wanting to reopen the country's borders.
Paxton's baggage
Trump backed Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a bitter Republican primary battle, despite warnings that the attorney general's history of controversy could imperil the party's hold on the seat.
Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 over allegations of corruption and abuse of power, although the state Senate subsequently acquitted him.
In an extraordinary twist, Dan Cogdell, one of the lawyers who defended Paxton during the proceedings, has since endorsed Talarico.
More recently, The Wall Street Journal reported that Paxton spent New Year's Eve in Dubai with two American businessmen indicted over alleged healthcare fraud. Both have pleaded not guilty.
Yet Paxton retains support among Trump-aligned conservatives, including some who acknowledge misgivings about their candidate.
"I'll be honest, I don't think he's the best representation, but he's the best one we are being offered right now," Mark Aponte, 58, told AFP at Trump's San Antonio rally.
He said he considered Paxton the best available choice to protect his priorities, including public safety and Christian rights.
Cracks in Trump's coalition
Beyond Paxton's personal controversies, Democrats are looking to exploit growing discontent over immigration enforcement and the economy.
Trump's commanding victory in Texas in 2024 owed partly to substantial gains among Latino voters, particularly along the state's southern border with Mexico.
But some of those voters are now reconsidering their support.
Benny Melendez, a construction business owner and the son of immigrants, voted for Trump but says the administration's immigration crackdown has devastated his business.
"My work, my profits and my workforce have all been cut in half," he told AFP, adding that he was deeply troubled by the fear and family separations caused by immigration enforcement.
Cattle industry groups in Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma have also warned that immigration raids are disrupting agricultural businesses, deterring legally employed workers and threatening to drive up beef prices.
A May survey by the Latino civil rights group UnidosUS found that one in five Texas Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 would not do so again if given another chance.
The broader discontent has also given Democrats hope in the race for governor, where three-term Republican incumbent Greg Abbott faces an unexpectedly close contest against state lawmaker Gina Hinojosa.
Hinojosa has focused her campaign on the cost of living, seeking to appeal to voters beyond the traditional Democratic base.
For Melendez, disillusionment with Trump has become reason enough to switch sides.
"I didn't vote for Trump because I liked him," he told AFP. "I voted for Trump to punish Biden. And I'm going to vote for the Democrat for the same reason: to punish Trump."