The Atlanta Falcons (2-3) and Chicago Bears (3-2) meet in Atlanta for a battle between bruised and battered quarterbacks. Atlanta is expected to have Michael Penix after suffering a rib injury the Falcons 30-23 OT loss to the Ravens whereas Chicago is hopeful Caleb Williams returns from his three-game absence amid a hamstring injury.
The Ravens reaction of when Tua Tagovailoa entered the game for Michael Penix has gone viral and its fuel to the fire for the Falcons after the game-losing interception. Atlanta’s two-game winning streak was snapped, but the offense continued to stay warm. Atlanta’s scored 35, 45, and 23 points with Penix at quarterback, so they are hopeful he is productive under center following his rib injury.
Bijan Robinson (118 total yards,1 TD) and Drake London (7 rec, 118 yards) had big games again for the dirty birds, while the defense gave up 30-plus points for the second time this season (both at home). Atlanta’s defense allowed Derrick Henry to run for 102 yards and Tyler Huntley to throw two touchdowns and 201 yards on 24-of-32 (75%). Stopping Ben Johnson‘s offense won’t be easy, especially after getting blown out against Green Bay; and if Caleb Williams returns.
Chicago was held to single-digit scoring for the second time this season following the 31-7 loss at Green Bay. After losing 9-3 to Minnesota in Week 2, Chicago bounced back with a 27-7 underdog win versus Philadelphia. Some of the Bears visually clocked out against the Packers as they were outgained 428-246 in yards and turned the ball over a season-high five times. Chicago will be on the road for a second-straight week as this will be the first time playing back-to-back away games this year. Chicago went 2-1 last year in the second leg of their back-to-back road games, but did have a bye week in-between one of those wins.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.
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Game details and how to watch Bears at Falcons
· Date: Sunday, October 18, 2026
· Time: 1:00 PM ET
· Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
· City: Atlanta, GA
· TV/Streaming: Fox
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Latest Game Odds for Bears at Falcons
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:
· Moneyline: Chicago Bears (-118), Atlanta Falcons (-102)
· Spread: Bears -1.5 (+100)
· Total: 51.5
The look-ahead spread for this matchup was Chicago -3 with game total of 47.5. The Bears are trending towards having Caleb Williams and the Falcons appear to have Michael Penix available, which is likely why money has come in on the Over.
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Expert picks & predictions for Bears at Falcons
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes Michael Penix Under 237.5 Passing Yards:
“Michael Penix has tossed 256, 223, and 240 passing yards. He is 2-1 to the Over or 3-0 to the Over if you didn’t have 223.5 or higher against New Orleans. This is a spot where I would look at an Under because of his rib injury and law of averages. Of course, Jordan Love torched this Chicago defense last week, so there is some concern, but if there are any limitations or big hits on Penix, Atlanta will have no problem handing the ball off to Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson. Tua Tagovailoa is on stand by and I am sure he wants a makeup for last week’s OT interception. I have to go Under on Penix here and probably next week against San Francisco too.”
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Bears at Falcons betting trends and stats
- Atlanta is 2-3 ATS and 3-2 to the Over
- Chicago is 3-2 ATS and 4-1 to the Under
- Atlanta is 0-2 ATS, 0-2 on the ML, and 1-1 to the Over at home
- Chicago is 1-1 ATS, on the ML and to the Over on the road
- The Falcons are 8-9-2 ATS coming off a loss since 2024
- The Bears are 5-2 ATS and on the ML coming off a loss with Ben Johnson
- The Bears are 4-3 to the Under coming off a loss with Ben Johnson
- The Bears are 6-5 ATS on the ML when they’re the road team under Ben Johnson
- Atlanta is 4-6 on the ML and 3-7 ATS as the home team since 2025
- Chicago ranks second-best at 12-3 ATS versus non-divisional opponents since 2025
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Quarterback matchup for Bears at Falcons
· Chicago: Caleb Williams – Williams is listed as questionable after three days of practice with the team. Williams has missed three straight starts since a hamstring injury in the fourth quarter of the Week 2 loss to the Vikings. Williams and Chicago exploded for 59 points in Week 1 then were playing in a downpour in Week 2 (9-3 loss). Chicago started Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent during those three weeks and went 2-1. Despite capitalizing without Williams, Chicago has to be excited to potentially have their franchise guy back. Williams threw a career-high 3,942 yards last season and 27 touchdowns to seven interceptions. He was expected to exceed all those numbers this season prior to his injury in hopes of quarterbacking the NFL’s highest scoring offense ever (per Ben Johnson).
· Atlanta: Michael Penix – Penix was cleared to play following his rib injury in the 30-23 OT loss to Baltimore. It was his third start of the season and certainly his worst. Penix finished with 240 passing yards on 19-of-32 (59.4%), one touchdown, and a season-high three sacks taken. Penix averaged over 10 yards per completion and a 70-plus completion percentage in the first two games compared to 7.2 yards per completion and a 59% completion percentage against Baltimore. Chicago allowed Jordan Love to explode for 367 passing yards and two touchdowns on 25-of-31 (80.7%), so it’s a matchup Penix could get back on track with.
Bears at Falcons Injury Update
- Chicago QB Caleb Williams (hamstring) is questionable
- Chicago CB Tyrique Stevenson (hip) is questionable
- Chicago CB Kyler Gordon (calf) is out
- Chicago RB Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) is out
- Chicago LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring) is out
- Chicago LB Keyshaun Elliott (quads) is out
- Chicago DE Dayo Odeyingbo (quads) is out
- Atlanta DE Z’Darius Smith (neck) is questionable
- Atlanta CB C.J. Henderson (groin) is out
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