Coming off the bye week and heading to the desert. Iowa State travels to Tucson on Saturday to face No. 25 Arizona in what is shaping up to be one of the more important games of the Rogers era. It is also Homecoming for the Wildcats which means Casino Del Sol Stadium will be loud and the crowd will be engaged from the opening kickoff. For what it is worth I will be in attendance for my first trip to the University of Arizona. Cardinal and Gold in the desert. Let us see how that goes.
Know Your Opponent
Arizona comes in at 5-1 and ranked 25th in the country under third year head coach Brent Brennan. The Wildcats are averaging 35.7 points per game and have been one of the more complete offenses in the Big 12. Their only loss came at No. 2 BYU back in week two, a loss that looks better every single week.
The name to know is Noah Fifita, which I’m sure most Cyclone fans are familiar with. At this point it feels like he has been at Arizona forever and frankly he almost has, the redshirt senior is in his fifth season with the program and shows no signs of slowing down. Through six games Fifita has completed 73.3 percent of his passes for 1,756 yards, 16 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. He ranks 18th nationally in passing yards and is tied for 10th with 16 passing touchdowns. He is a seasoned veteran playing the best football of a very long and decorated college career.
Running back Kedrick Reescano leads the ground game with 262 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Arizona’s offensive line has been solid all year particularly in pass protection with the 14th best pass blocking grade nationally according to PFF. Worth noting that despite the strong overall pass blocking grade, Arizona has allowed the most sacks in the Big 12 this season.
One notable development on the Arizona side, wide receiver Tre Spivey is out for the season with a broken foot. Iowa State knows all too well how that feels after losing Overby in Provo. It thins out their receiving corps but with Fifita at quarterback defenses cannot get comfortable.
The Iowa State Angle
The bye week could not have come at a better time and the question is whether Iowa State used it well. Crawford’s potential return on the defensive line is the biggest storyline heading into Saturday. A healthy Crawford changes the complexion of this defense entirely against a quarterback as polished as Fifita.
Without Overby the offense faces its biggest test yet in terms of personnel. Someone in that receiver room has to step up and be a reliable target for Raynor on Saturday. Arizona’s defense is not elite but Fifita’s pace and efficiency will put pressure on Iowa State’s offense to keep up. Sustained drives, protecting the football, and keeping Fifita off the field is the formula.
Aiden Flora remains the most important player on this offense. If Iowa State can establish the run and put Fifita in uncomfortable situations defensively this game becomes very interesting very quickly.
The Outlook
Arizona is the better team on paper at home in front of their own crowd on Homecoming weekend. But Iowa State has shown all season that they can compete with anyone when they are locked in and the turnover battle goes their way.
Every single loss on Iowa State’s resume this season has come against a ranked opponent. No. 15 Iowa. No. 10 Utah. No. 2 BYU. That context matters and it speaks to the level this program is competing at despite the record.
The Cyclones need this win badly. A bowl game requires at least three more victories and after facing three top 15 opponents already the remaining schedule is far from a gauntlet. This is the week to get one.
Saturday presents a simple but significant choice. Iowa State either picks up the first ranked win of the Jimmy Rogers era or walks away 3-4 with every single loss coming against a ranked opponent.