Could Seiya Suzuki conquer Mike Elias’s butchered left field wall?
Is it worth spending $28M a year to find out?
Most likely, it’s a moot point. It’s hard to see this front office and this ownership group dipping that deep into their pockets one year after doing a $30M/year deal with Pete Alonso, another right-handed hitting slugger. But should they?
Data guru Dan Szymborski, who is a Fangraphs analyst behind the ZIPS projections and a lifelong Orioles fan, made a compelling case for Suzuki on “The Daily Flock Show” this week that went beyond merely the myriad baseball arguments and also leaned into how signing a player of this stature could help the franchise make inroads into the Japanese market.
In a bad free-agent market, one could absolutely make the case that Suzuki is the best bat available, and certainly the best outfield bat. In his five years with the Cubs since coming over from Japan Suzuki has established a toolkit that would make him a welcome addition in any MLB lineup. If the Orioles were to splurge on this player, I doubt they would regret it.
This team absolutely must attack its lack of everyday outfielders with vigor and be willing to explore potentially-risky trades and, hopefully, show more urgency and a more progressive approach to roster construction.
My only concern would be that left-field wall.
Elite Profile
There isn’t much not to love about Suzuki. He could handle left field (more on that in a minute) in a big way, and he can handle the bat like few others. He is in the 88th percentile in overall batting value and he destroys fastballs and he walks 13% of the time and he’s routinely batting over .270 and he doesn’t chase at all and his power comes easy.
Suzuki has a K rate that you don’t love (24%) but unlike most Orioles he does enough damage and enough damage with men on base. And he doesn’t have to hit a home run to drive runners in. He got on base 37% of the time last season and 35% of the time in his MLB career. He has been 28% better than the average MLB hitter in each of the last four seasons.
He’s getting you 50 extra-base hits per season. Heck, he even stole 16 bases back in 2024.
Great Glove
We are talking about someone who understands fundamental baseball at a very deep level. He knows how to take routes to balls and where to throw the ball and would be a total antidote to the kind of horrible baseball the Orioles have played for years under Mike Elias.
His arm is weapon. We are talking about 89th percentile in fielding-run value with a 94th percentile arm value and an 85th percentile arm strength. He wouldn’t need to platoon and you wouldn’t have to hide him from this ballpark. He's been a right fielder but he looks like an upgrade over anything the Orioles have put in leftfield in a long time.
What’s The Caveat?
Suzuki isn’t an overtly pull-heavy hitter but he is around league average, at 30%. But when you study where his homers go, it’s pretty much all left field. He might not have the profile that Alonso had, where he could lead MLB in opposite field homers in his first season at Camden Yards.
Five of his 26 homers went to the right side last season. Seven of his 32 homers the season before went to center or right field. Six of his 21 homers the season before that. Wrigley is a weird spot, with the wind, and that wouldn’t be the case in Camden Yards. But so many right-handed power bats have fallen to Elias’s ballpark perversion (Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, Tyler Wells), I would be a little worried here.
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