BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Wednesday, 21 October, 6:42 p.m. ET · Source: Brasil 247, NC News
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Wednesday 21 October, Lula cancelled the recording of a TV Record interview and of campaign TV slots to rest his hoarse voice.
- Why His speech therapist advised him to avoid commitments that need strong vocal effort.
- Next test Globo hosts the final runoff debate on Friday 23 October at 8:20 p.m. ET (9:20 p.m. in Brasília).
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 80.1% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 19.5% (21 October, 6:39 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 80% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 20% and 21%), as of 21 October, 6:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva cancelled a TV Record interview and the recording of campaign TV slots on Wednesday 21 October to rest a hoarse voice. The cancellations come two days before the final runoff debate on TV Globo, according to Brasil 247 and NC News.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.1%, Lula 48.9%
33 national polls from 19 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
The decision matters for the Brazil election 2026 because the debate on Friday 23 October is the last big televised clash before Sunday’s vote. Lula’s campaign has not announced a new date for the Record interview.
What Lula Cancelled and Why
Lula suspended the recording of an interview for TV Record that was planned for Wednesday, NC News and Brasil 247 reported. His campaign also cancelled the recording of slots for the free election advertising that Brazilian law gives each candidate on TV.
The decision followed the advice of his speech therapist, who recommended suspending commitments that need greater vocal effort, according to Brasil 247, which cited O Globo. No official medical statement has been published, NC News noted.
A Weaker Voice at a Public Event
Earlier on Wednesday, Lula signed a law forgiving debts of individual micro-entrepreneurs at the Planalto Palace, the presidential office in Brasília. He spoke for about 15 minutes, and his voice sounded weaker than usual, Brasil 247 reported.
The campaign kept a street walk planned for Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais state, on Wednesday afternoon. Lula was expected to make only a brief speech there, according to Brasil 247.
Why the Globo Debate Matters
TV Globo will host the final runoff debate on Friday 23 October, starting at 8:20 p.m. ET (9:20 p.m. in Brasília) from its Rio de Janeiro studios, journalist César Tralli moderating. It is the last debate the broadcaster runs before voting on Sunday 25 October.
A live debate puts a candidate’s voice and stamina in plain view. Lula’s campaign has not said how he will prepare after the vocal rest.
What It Means for You
If you follow Brazilian assets, the debate is the next scheduled event that can move opinion before the vote. Prices on prediction markets and in Brazilian stocks and the real often react within minutes to how candidates perform.
For US readers watching trade and foreign policy, the debate offers a rare side-by-side look at both candidates on live TV. The Brazil election 2026 explainer lists the key dates through election night.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro an 80.1% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 19.5% (21 October, 6:39 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$191.0 million in total trades.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 80.1% · Lula 19.5% (US$191 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 21 October, 6:40 pm ET (23:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known how long Lula’s hoarseness will last or whether it will affect his debate performance. His campaign has not said when the Record interview will be recorded instead.
Neither Lula’s office nor his doctors have published a medical statement in the reports reviewed. Whether the cancellations change any voter’s choice cannot be known before Sunday.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Lula cancel his TV Record interview?
He has a hoarse voice, and his speech therapist advised avoiding commitments that need strong vocal effort. His campaign wants him rested for the Globo debate on Friday 23 October.
When is the final Brazil runoff debate?
TV Globo hosts it on Friday 23 October at 8:20 p.m. ET (9:20 p.m. in Brasília). Journalist César Tralli moderates.
Did Lula cancel anything else?
Yes, he also cancelled the recording of slots for the free TV election advertising. The campaign has not set new dates.
When is the Brazil runoff vote?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The runoff is between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
Who are the runoff candidates?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is Brazil’s president, running for re-election. Flávio Bolsonaro is a conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro.
Sources: Brasil 247, 21 October 2026; NC News, 21 October 2026; Tribuna do Sertão, 21 October 2026; Polymarket, 21 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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