If absentee ballot numbers are any indication, things in Wisconsin look really good for Republicans in the state, including Tom Tiffany.
Just in: Wisconsin absentee ballots are still well behind the 2022 pace. pic.twitter.com/ntYg5N847J
— Dairyland Sentinel (@DairylandSent) October 15, 2026
Here's a better breakdown of those numbers: There were 363,330 applications this year, down 20.3 percent from 2022, and 151,231 were returned, down 28.2 percent from 2022.
WI Absentee, Oct 15 vs 2022
— Shadow Governor Vos (@Robin_Vos_Stan) October 15, 2026
Apps: 363,330 (-20.3%, down 0.3 pts from Oct 14)
Returned: 151,231 (-28.2%, down 1.1 pts from Oct 14)
Those numbers are down across the board, but especially so in bluer districts.
Apps/Returned vs 2022
— Shadow Governor Vos (@Robin_Vos_Stan) October 15, 2026
🔴 WI-01: 45K (-20%)/19K (-27%)
🔵 WI-02: 62K (-25%)/26K (-35%)
🔴 WI-03: 37K (-19%)/16K (-22%)
🔵 WI-04: 43K (-25%)/16K (-36%)
🔴 WI-05: 51K (-18%)/20K (-25%)
🔴 WI-06: 41K (-18%)/17K (-29%)
🔴 WI-07: 39K (-17%)/17K (-25%)
🔴 WI-08: 45K (-17%)/19K (-24%)
And in the cities of Milwaukee and Madison, it's even worse news for Democrats.
Apps/Returned vs 2022
— Shadow Governor Vos (@Robin_Vos_Stan) October 15, 2026
City of Eau Claire: 4.1K (-19%)/1.9K (-24%)
Waukesha Co: 32K (-19%)/13K (-25%)
Marathon Co: 7.6K (-15%)/3.3K (-25%)
Fond du Lac Co: 4.9K (-23%)/2.1K (-26%)
City of Milwaukee: 28K (-24%)/11K (-33%)
City of Madison: 25K (-32%)/10K (-41%)
Recommended
Madison apps are significantly down versus 2022.
Apps, furthest below 2022
— Shadow Governor Vos (@Robin_Vos_Stan) October 15, 2026
Door Co 2,003 (-28.7%)
Ashland Co 786 (-29.6%)
Brown Deer 988 (-30.7%)
City of Madison 24,676 (-31.5%)
Germantown 1,238 (-31.6%)
Monona 867 (-32.7%)
Fox Point 781 (-33.3%)
Vernon Co 1,194 (-33.6%)
And returns are down in Milwaukee and Dane Counties.
Returned, furthest below 2022
— Shadow Governor Vos (@Robin_Vos_Stan) October 15, 2026
Kenosha Co 4,233 (-33.0%)
Milwaukee Co 22,508 (-33.8%)
Dane Co 21,720 (-35.7%)
Whitefish Bay 607 (-43.8%)
Brown Deer 360 (-45.3%)
McFarland 315 (-46.4%)
Glendale 646 (-46.7%)
Monona 341 (-50.1%)
Those Madison and Milwaukee numbers are brutal for Crowley.
— RightWI (@RightWI1776) October 15, 2026
We certainly hope so. Remember, Crowley was polling at five percent in the primary and dropped out. State Democrats dragged him back in.
crowley losing milwaukee and madison is like losing the two rooms of the house you actually live in and pretending the basement counts
— Lucy Luu💞 (@lucyvelvetxx) October 16, 2026
And today's returns do not look much better.
WI Absentee, Oct 16 vs 2022
— Shadow Governor Vos (@Robin_Vos_Stan) October 16, 2026
Apps: 366,361 (-20.5%, down 0.2 pts from Oct 15)
Returned: 161,023 (-28.5%, down 0.3 pts from Oct 15)
Republicans cannot rest. This does not mean the election is a lock, but it's indicative of low-enthusiasm. That might change on Election Day or with early in-person voting, and every Republican must go and vote. But the signs are there that this may not be the blue wave Democrats are hoping for. That's great news for all of us.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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