BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Wednesday, 21 October, 11:00 a.m. ET · Source: Palver polling institute, TSE registration BR-04612/2026
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Wednesday 21 October, the Palver polling institute published an online runoff survey showing a technical tie.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 50% and Lula 48%, which works out to about 51% to 49% of valid votes, with a 2.4-point margin of error.
- The change Palver’s previous survey, published on 15 October, had Flávio at 50% and Lula at 49%.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (21 October, 10:58 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 23% and 23%), as of 21 October, 11:00 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Brazilian polling institute Palver says Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Lula by 50% to 48% in its new runoff survey, a technical tie. Palver published the results on Wednesday 21 October, four days before the Brazil election 2026 vote.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
31 national polls from 18 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
The survey was taken online and adds to the Brazil election polls that show a race inside the margin of error. Flávio is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the conservative candidate, while Lula leads the left-wing Workers’ Party.
What the Palver Poll Found
Palver interviewed 5,000 voters online between 18 and 20 October, Exame reported. The institute paid for the survey itself, and the margin of error is 2.4 points at a 95% confidence level.
Flávio Bolsonaro has 50% and Lula has 48%, with 1% blank, null or not voting and no undecided voters, according to Terra. Leaving out blank answers, our calculation puts the split near 51% to 49% in Flávio’s favour.
The survey is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-04612/2026, Congresso em Foco noted. The 15 October Palver survey had Flávio at 50% and Lula at 49%, so Lula slipped one point.
Why an Online Poll Is Different
Palver recruited its respondents through social media advertising, not by phone or in person. Statisticians call this a non-probabilistic sample, meaning not every voter had an equal chance of being asked.
That is why such polls are read with more caution than in-person surveys. The stated margin of error is the institute’s own estimate, and a two-point gap sits inside it.
How It Compares With Other Polls
Datafolha, a major pollster linked to the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, had Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes on 15 October, as we reported in our earlier poll report. Quaest, another leading institute, published a survey on 21 October with Flávio at 45% and Lula at 44%.
All three surveys point the same way: a one- to two-point gap that no pollster can separate from chance. The race has no clear leader with four days left.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can bring sharp price swings until the result is known. The winner will also set Brazil’s course on trade and diplomacy with Washington for the next four years.
Treat one online survey as a single data point. The Brazil runoff poll tracker lists every pollster side by side so you can compare methods.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro about a 78% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula about 22% (21 October, 10:58 a.m. ET). The market has seen about US$190 million in trades, and prices from Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC, are on our Brazil election odds page.
Prices are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes of new surveys. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.6% · Lula 22.5% (US$190 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 23%
As of 21 October, 11:00 am ET (16:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The survey does not say which undecided or wavering voters will turn out on 25 October, or which way they will go. Because respondents joined online, it is also unclear how well they mirror all Brazilian voters.
Any poll measures opinion during its fieldwork days and does not forecast the result. Official results come only from the TSE.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Palver?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 50% against 48% for Lula, a technical tie. Palver published the survey on Wednesday 21 October.
What is the margin of error in the Palver poll?
The margin of error is 2.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. A two-point gap sits inside it.
How was the Palver poll conducted?
Palver surveyed 5,000 voters online between 18 and 20 October. Respondents were recruited through social media, so the sample is not random.
How did the Palver poll change from last week?
On 15 October, Palver had Flávio at 50% and Lula at 49%. Flávio held steady while Lula slipped one point.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, four days after this poll was published. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Sources: Exame, 21 October 2026; Terra, 21 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, 21 October 2026; Estado de Minas, 21 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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