MEXICO · WEATHER
Key Facts
- The country Mexico, the United States’ southern neighbour, has a long Pacific coast of ports and beach resorts popular with Americans, such as Puerto Vallarta.
- What happened Trudy strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane early on Thursday, 15 October, and coastal watches for Mexico were expected later that morning.
- The storm At the 5 a.m. ET advisory, Trudy had 75 mph (120 km/h) winds, about 460 miles (735 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo.
- The forecast Trudy should become a major hurricane on Friday and pass very close to the coast between western Michoacán and Cabo Corrientes this weekend.
- For US travellers Tropical-storm-force winds could reach parts of the coast as early as Saturday, with five-day chances of 78% in Manzanillo and 29% in Puerto Vallarta.
- Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
Trudy strengthened into a hurricane off Mexico’s Pacific coast early on Thursday, 15 October, with sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h). Hurricane Trudy is forecast to become a major hurricane on Friday and to approach the coast near Manzanillo this weekend.
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami announced the upgrade in its 5 a.m. ET advisory and expected coastal watches later that morning. Its forecast brings Trudy very close to the coast from western Michoacán to Cabo Corrientes, just south of Puerto Vallarta, a resort popular with Americans.
Where Hurricane Trudy Is Now
The NHC placed the centre of Hurricane Trudy about 300 miles (480 km) south-southwest of Acapulco and about 460 miles (735 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 25 miles (35 km) from the centre.
At that advisory, no coastal watches or warnings were in force, but the NHC said watches would likely be required later that morning. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the area named.
Trudy formed off southern Mexico on Tuesday, 13 October, when it first threatened the coast near Acapulco. It follows Hurricane Simon, now a weaker tropical storm off the southern tip of Baja California, which kept Puerto Vallarta on alert earlier this month.
How Strong Trudy Could Get
Hurricane Trudy had sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) at 3 a.m. CST on Thursday, 15 October (5 a.m. ET, 09:00 UTC). That made it a Category 1 hurricane, just above the 74 mph threshold, moving north-west at 9 mph (15 km/h).
The NHC expects rapid intensification, a sudden jump in wind speed, over the next couple of days, fed by warm water and light upper winds. Its forecast makes Trudy a major hurricane, Category 3 or stronger, on Friday.
Peak winds in the forecast reach 130 mph (about 210 km/h) on Saturday, Category 4 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricane Trudy should then weaken from Sunday as upper winds strengthen and drier air moves in.
Trudy is expected to turn north-northwest over the next day or two, then back toward the northwest this weekend as it approaches the coast. The NHC expects it very close to the shore from near Punta San Telmo, in Michoacán, to Cabo Corrientes.
Cabo Corrientes is the cape at the southern tip of Banderas Bay, home to Puerto Vallarta. Early next week the forecast turns Trudy west, away from Mexico.
Rain, Wind and Surf Risks
Hurricane Trudy could drop 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm) of rain on Colima and Jalisco, up to 12 inches (300 mm) locally. Colima is the state that includes Manzanillo, and Jalisco is home to Puerto Vallarta.
That rain may cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially on steep slopes, the forecasters said. Swells will reach parts of southwestern Mexico over the next day or so, with life-threatening surf and rip currents.
The NHC gives Manzanillo a 78% chance of tropical-storm-force winds, 39 mph (63 km/h) or more, within five days. Its chance of hurricane-force winds, 74 mph (119 km/h) or more, is 21%.
Barra de Navidad, a beach town just across the state line in Jalisco, stands at 64% for tropical-storm-force winds. The figure is 34% for Lázaro Cárdenas, a cargo port in Michoacán, and 29% for Puerto Vallarta.
What It Means for You
Tropical-storm-force winds could reach parts of the coast as early as Saturday, the NHC said. Americans booked into Manzanillo, Puerto Vallarta or the beach towns between them this weekend should check with their airline and hotel before leaving.
The US State Department rates Colima, the state that includes Manzanillo, at Level 4, ‘Do not travel’, citing terrorism, crime and kidnapping. It lets US government staff visit only Manzanillo’s central tourist and port areas.
Jalisco, home to Puerto Vallarta, is at Level 3, ‘Reconsider travel’, but the department sets no limits for its staff in Puerto Vallarta itself. Mexico as a whole carries a Level 2 advisory, ‘Exercise increased caution’.
Anyone already on the coast should follow Mexican civil protection orders and keep out of the sea. US citizens can enrol in the State Department’s Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive embassy safety alerts by email.
What Is Not Known
The exact path is uncertain, and the NHC says its computer models disagree widely on where Hurricane Trudy will be early next week. Its track forecasts at that range have averaged errors of about 100 to 125 nautical miles (185 to 230 km).
The 5 a.m. ET advisory did not say which stretch of coast the expected watches would cover. Nor is it known whether Colima and Jalisco will close ports, schools or beaches, or whether airlines will cancel flights to Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.
Tropical Storm Simon, several hundred miles to the northwest off Baja California, adds another unknown for Hurricane Trudy. The NHC said the two storms could interact and further complicate Trudy’s steering.
More: Mexico news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Puerto Vallarta in Hurricane Trudy’s path?
The NHC forecast brings Hurricane Trudy very close to the coast from western Michoacán to Cabo Corrientes, the cape south of Puerto Vallarta. It gives Puerto Vallarta a 29% chance of tropical-storm-force winds within five days.
When will Trudy reach the Mexican coast?
The NHC expects Trudy to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend as a major hurricane. Its forecast keeps the centre very close to the shore from near Punta San Telmo, in Michoacán, to Cabo Corrientes.
What is the difference between a hurricane watch and a warning?
A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the area, while a warning means they are expected. Warnings usually follow watches as a storm draws closer.
Should I cancel a trip to Puerto Vallarta or Manzanillo?
That depends on your dates and Trudy’s final track, so check with your airline and hotel and follow the NHC advisories, issued every six hours. Anyone already there should obey Mexican civil protection orders.
Sources: US National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Trudy Public Advisory 8, 15 October 2026; US National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Trudy Discussion 8, 15 October 2026; US National Hurricane Center, Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities 8, 15 October 2026; US National Hurricane Center, Trudy Forecast Advisory 8, 15 October 2026; US State Department, Mexico Travel Advisory, 29 May 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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