Wall Street spent Monday in a holding pattern. Stocks went three different directions on October 12, 2026, while investors waited for the biggest US banks to open the third-quarter earnings season.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.38% to close at 51,850.55. The S&P 500 slipped 0.06% to 7,807.24, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.44% to 27,245.90.
A quiet session with a clear rotation
Money moved toward value and energy names, which offset continued softness in technology and AI-linked stocks. That explains why the Dow, with its tilt toward older-economy blue chips, managed a gain while the Nasdaq took the biggest hit of the three.
Trading was also thinner than usual because of the Columbus Day holiday.
The real event starts October 13, when bank earnings begin. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are among the lenders on deck.
What the banks are expected to deliver
Projections call for aggregate stock-trading revenue across the sector of nearly $19 billion for the third quarter. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are projected to lead the pack in equity trading revenue.
Forecasts point to year-over-year loan growth of around 11%.
Fixed-income trading revenue is forecast to decline from second-quarter levels following an interest rate hike.
Options markets are pricing in moves of 2.5% to 2.8% for JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs after their reports.
Here is a quick snapshot of the setup:
- Dow: 51,850.55, up 0.38%
- S&P 500: 7,807.24, down 0.06%
- Nasdaq: 27,245.90, down 0.44%
- Expected Q3 bank stock-trading revenue: nearly $19 billion
- Expected loan growth: around 11% year over year
- 10-year Treasury yield: near 5.24%
Why bank stocks are already on the back foot
The KBW Bank Index has dropped more than 10% since mid-August. Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year sitting near 5.24%, and the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike in three years.
S&P 500 financials are projected to post earnings growth of about 3.3% year over year for the third quarter, which trails the outlook for the broader market.
What this means for investors
Watch net interest income guidance closely. That figure, the gap between what banks earn on loans and pay on deposits, is the core engine of a traditional lender, and any change in outlook will shape how the market values these stocks for the rest of the year.
Investment banking and consumer lending are also areas to monitor for softening. Firms with strong equity trading franchises, like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, could look better positioned if those desks deliver, while lenders more dependent on consumers or bond trading may face tougher questions.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.