Democrat Mary Peltola is widening her lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in the race for the Alaska U.S. Senate seat as the pair are set to debate Thursday night.
Peltola has trended higher than Sullivan in several recent polls, fueling hopes that Democrats can reclaim a Senate seat they haven't held since early 2015, after Mark Begich lost his re-election bid in 2014 to Sullivan, now the incumbent. The debate comes only days after President Donald Trump traveled to Alaska on Tuesday to shore up Sullivan’s reelection bid, making a rare campaign stop as Republicans seek to retain control of Congress. Thursday's debate will take place from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. local time. Similar debates were already held for the U.S. House and gubernatorial races.
Newsweek reached out to Peltola's and Sullivan's campaigns by email for comment on Thursday afternoon.
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Why the Alaska Senate Race Matters in the 2026 Midterms
Alaska is one of several tight Senate races this year as Democrats strive to win the majority and flip control of the upper chamber. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.
While Republicans have won Alaska in every presidential election since 1968, the state has opted for a split ticket in past races when it comes to congressional and gubernatorial races. Peltola previously won the election for U.S. Representative in 2022 and is now vying for the Senate. A New York Times summary of recent polls finds Peltola leading Sullivan in three since late September. Earlier this month, Sabato's Crystal Ball, based out of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, moved the Alaska race to "Leans Democratic" from its previous "Toss-Up" ranking, another sign that Democrats are gaining ground in the race.
Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola: What Latest Polls Show
Peltola leads Sullivan in the most recent polls by a margin of 2 to 7 percentage points depending on the poll.
She leads Sullivan by 6 points in the latest InsiderAdvantage poll, which surveyed 1,200 likely voters between October 9 and October 10. The poll showed Peltola at 48.2 percent in the first round, against 42.6 percent for Sullivan. In the final round of Alaska’s ranked-choice voting, the potential result would be 50.1 percent to Peltola and 48 percent to Sullivan, the poll showed.
Peltola's lead over Sullivan is narrower in the Alaska Survey Research poll conducted between October 1 and 3. That poll surveyed 1,512 likely voters, with 47 percent choosing Peltola to Sullivan's 45 percent in the first round. Peltola's chances jumped to 51 percent and Sullivan's to 49 percent in the final round.
A New York Times/Siena University poll held between September 24 and October 1 gave Peltola her greatest lead over Sullivan at 50 percent to 43 percent. That poll surveyed 504 likely voters.
Sullivan has not had a lead over Peltola since the Trafalgar Group poll held between September 22 and 24. The conservative poll surveyed 1,079 likely voters and found that 47 percent opted for Sullivan over 46 percent who chose Peltola.
What Prediction Markets Show
Prediction markets are even more confident in Peltola's ability to beat Sullivan. Going into Thursday night's debate, Peltola is at a 74 percent chance of unseating Sullivan, according to current prediction market trends. Her chances have surged since mid-September, when they were at 64 percent.
"Traders are far more confident in Peltola than the polls are, which makes tonight a real test. A bad night would show up in the price within minutes," Lucas Kohorst, co-founder of Adjacent Markets, told Newsweek.
Biggest Issues Facing Alaska Voters
Alaska's high cost of living and elevated fuel prices, which have been worsened by the U.S. war with Iran, are among the top issues for Alaskan voters this midterm cycle. On Thursday, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in Alaska was $4.96, above the national average of $4.33. Utility companies have also expressed concern over the cost of fuel, with Enstar Natural Gas president John Sims warning there may not be enough supply to meet demand this winter, MS Now reported.
Fisheries have also been a major topic during this year's election, as commercial fishing is a major driver of Alaska's economy. Concerns over declining fish populations and the health of the fishing industry have driven campaign conversation.
How to Watch Alaska Senate Debate
There are several ways to watch Thursday's debate between Peltola and Sullivan, which will begin at 7 p.m. local time and last for one hour on October 15. Alaska Public Media TV, Alaska's News Source, and KTOO 360TV will broadcast the event.
People can listen statewide on the radio by tuning into KSKA 91.1 FM Anchorage, KSKA 91.9 FM Girdwood, or any Alaska Public Radio Network stations.
The debate can be streamed live at alaskapublic.org.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas