It’s shaping up to be pretty nasty over the next few days in parts of Alberta, with two weather systems set to bring snow to some areas.
You better get out and enjoy the warm temperatures across Alberta today, because they are going to vanish very soon.
Daily Hive spoke with Janelle Gergely, an Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) meteorologist, about what is causing the dive in temperatures and the rounds of snow set to impact the province.
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Gergely said the first system that will kick off a significant shift in the weather is set to arrive tomorrow night heading into Friday, Oct. 23, as a low-pressure system moves through Alberta, bringing with it cooler temperatures, allowing for much of the province to switch from above-normal temperatures thanks to the current upper ridge to normal or even below-normal temperatures.
Snow accumulation has the greatest threat in northeastern sections of the province, including Fort McMurray and Fort Chipewyan, heading into Friday night as colder air sets in and rain transitions to snow, sliding into Saturday as well.
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“It could be upwards of 15 centimetres of snow. If that is the case, warnings will go out. It’s just that there is still some model variability, so kind of waiting for some consensus. They’re definitely going to have white conditions for the weekend,” Gergely noted.
Rain or snow will also be possible through much of central and southern Alberta with this system.
The second storm system impacting parts of the province over the coming days is forecast to arrive the evening of Saturday, Oct. 24, into Sunday, Oct. 25. As of writing, that system looks to be more impactful for the Calgary region, the Rockies, and southern Alberta, but it is expected to be primarily snow, with less significant snow accumulations on tap compared to the first. Strong winds are also anticipated with the second system moving through.
Are October snow threats typical during an El Niño year in Alberta?
With the chatter of a “super” El Niño on the way, some may expect to not see any winter-like impacts as we roll through fall in Alberta, which is a bit of a misconception about the weather phenomenon.
Gergely stated that an El Niño can influence the broader weather pattern through the fall and winter, and might favour milder conditions. The forecast Alberta is currently staring down over the coming days is driven by a specific weather system, so even with El Niño conditions starting to set in, we can still see significant cooldowns in winter weather and fluctuations.
Is the snow forecast to stick in Alberta?
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Luckily, even if large swaths of the province do see some snow over the coming days, the long-range forecast is hinting that temperatures are expected to rebound later next week.
“If there’s very little accumulation and temperatures pop up above zero, that’s going to melt very quickly,” Gergely said, adding that even some areas of northeastern Alberta, which are set to see the highest snowfall amounts, are set to see milder temperatures and that snow will simply take longer to disappear.
“Just keep an eye out on our forecasts. It’s expected to be a cool, cool weekend, a significant change from what it’s been like early this week, and it could be cool and windy and wet. So I’ll alter your plans accordingly.”
Looking at Alberta’s two largest cities, one is certainly seeing an uptick in better weather than how things were looking earlier this week.
Taking a peek at Edmonton first, the forecast shows plenty of warmth before a dip in temperatures as we arrive at the start of the weekend, with rain or snow Friday, Oct. 23. Alberta’s capital city will remain well below average for daytime highs straight through to Tuesday, Oct. 27.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
According to ECCC, the average daytime high for this time of year in Edmonton is 9°C, while the average low is -2°C.
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Turning to Calgary, the forecast shows a big dip in temperatures at the start of the weekend with much more of a snow risk than in Edmonton, with rain or snow and a high of 4°C on Friday, Oct. 23. Snow is back in the forecast for the night of Saturday, Oct. 24 with a low of -4°C, and snow during the day on Sunday, Oct. 25, with a high of -3°C.
Much like its neighbours to the north, Calgary will also remain well below average for daytime highs for the rest of the long weekend.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
According to ECCC, the average daytime high for this time of year in Calgary is 10°C, while the average low is -3°C.