BRAZIL · BANKING
Key Facts
- —What is happening Brazil’s bank federation Febraban estimated on Thursday, 22 October, that the national credit stock should grow 0.3% in September, while new lending should fall 3.2%.
- —Why it matters Slower credit growth is an early sign of how Brazil’s high interest rates are working, and it bears on loan quality at New York-listed lenders such as Itaú, Bradesco and Nubank.
- —The numbers Annual growth of the credit stock would ease to 8.3% from 9.2%, while the corporate portfolio should grow 6.0% and the household portfolio 9.7% over 12 months.
- —Who is who Febraban is the Brazilian Federation of Banks, the lenders’ trade body; the central bank sets the Selic rate and publishes the official credit data on 29 October.
- —What to watch Official central bank credit figures on Thursday, 29 October, then the rate committee’s meeting on Tuesday, 3 and Wednesday, 4 November, where the Selic stands at 13.75%.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives an 83% chance of a 25-basis-point Selic cut in November, 14% for no change and 2% for a bigger cut (23 October, 2:54 a.m. ET).
- —What it means for you US holders of Brazilian bank shares face slower loan growth and weaker household credit quality; the figures are estimates until the central bank publishes its own.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.1% · Lula 22.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · Lula 24%
As of 23 October, 3:20 am ET (08:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil’s banks expect credit to keep growing, but more slowly and with less new lending. The figures are estimates until the central bank reports.
Febraban, the Brazilian Federation of Banks, estimated on Thursday, 22 October, that credit stock should grow 0.3% in September. That would slow annual growth to 8.3%, from 9.2% in August.
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Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 50.9%, Lula 49.1%
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New lending should fall 3.2% from August, and the federation flagged weaker household loan quality. For holders of Itaú, Bradesco and Nubank shares, it is an early read before official data on 29 October.
What Febraban Estimates for September
Febraban’s special credit survey covers lenders that hold between 50% and 88% of the system’s loans, depending on the portfolio. It adjusts the sample with econometric models, so the numbers are estimates, not official data.
The total credit stock should grow 0.3% in the month, with 12-month growth easing to 8.3%. The central bank’s own series puts the August stock at BRL 7.40 trillion (about US$1.47 trillion), up 9.2% on a year earlier.
The federation says that, if confirmed, the credit market would show clearer signs of settling down. Earmarked credit, which follows state rules, still leads growth over 12 months.
Where the Slowdown Shows
Lending to companies should rise 0.7% in the month, with 12-month growth slipping to 6.0% from 7.1%. Market-rate loans to firms should grow 1.0%, helped by external credit lines and invoice discounting at quarter-end.
Working-capital loans should fall in the month, and market-rate company credit should be up only 0.3% over 12 months. Earmarked company loans, which include state programmes, should rise 0.3%, with annual growth at 15.1% against 17.7% in August.
Febraban blames that loss of momentum on guarantee funds for state programmes running out of money. That is the federation’s explanation, not an official finding.
Household credit should grow only 0.1% in the month, with annual growth of 9.7% against 10.5%. Market-rate household credit should rise 0.2%, led by revolving card credit, which Febraban calls a point of concern given family debt.
Mortgages remain the main support for earmarked household credit. Rural credit is expected to stay weak at the start of the 2026/27 Plano Safra, the government’s yearly farm-credit programme.
New Lending Seen Falling 3.2%
Febraban estimates that new loans should fall 3.2% from August. Both months had 21 working days, so the drop is the same with or without a calendar adjustment.
Against September 2025, new lending should be up 5.6% per working day. Over 12 months it should reach 9.9%, down from 10.7% a month earlier.
Earmarked lending should drop 25.5% in the month and 28.6% on the year. Market-rate lending should slip 0.4% in the month but be up 10.6% on the year.
New loans to households should fall 3.7% in the month, and loans to companies 2.6%. Febraban says the year-on-year gain in household lending (5.0%) came from vehicles, mortgages and private payroll loans.
Why Febraban Links It to Interest Rates
Febraban’s economists say signs of an economic slowdown are piling up because of tight monetary policy. They add that these signs seem to be reaching the credit market with more force.
The survey also sees further deterioration in the quality of household loans. The federation says this reinforces concern about how many borrowers fall behind on payments.
The central bank’s Selic target has stood at 13.75% since 17 September, down from 14.00%. Copom, its rate committee, is due to meet on Tuesday, 3 and Wednesday, 4 November, per published calendars.
Earlier Rio Times reports cover record household loan delinquency in July and Brazil Weighs Loan Limits as Debt Hits 49.9%. The state’s Desenrola 3.0 debt purchase and a small-business debt relief law add to the same picture.
What It Means for US Readers
Holders of Itaú Unibanco, Bradesco and Nubank (tickers ITUB, BBD and NU) face slower loan growth and a weaker household credit mix. Slower lending and more late payments can weigh on bank earnings, though this survey does not publish bank-level results.
Americans with Brazilian credit cards, loans or a business there should note that credit is still growing. The data show a slowdown, not a halt, and they remain estimates until 29 October.
What Prediction Markets Say
Traders on Polymarket put an 83% chance on a 25-basis-point (0.25 percentage point) Selic cut at the 3 to 4 November meeting. They price no change at 14% and a cut of 50 basis points or more at 2%.
The market on the November decision has traded about US$73,700 in total, with about US$26,300 on the 25-point cut. Prices were checked at 2:54 a.m. ET on Friday, 23 October, and these are bets, not forecasts by the central bank.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the central bank’s official figures on 29 October will match Febraban’s estimates. The survey covers only part of each portfolio and relies on models to fill the gap.
The 29 October date comes from Febraban, and the Copom dates from Toro Investimentos and Investidor10 citing the central bank’s 2026 calendar. The central bank’s own calendar page could not be read.
The release gives no default rates, so the size of the household deterioration it cites is unclear. It is also unclear how much of the lending drop comes from exhausted state funds and how much from weaker demand.
What Comes Next
The central bank is due to publish its monetary and credit statistics on Thursday, 29 October. Copom is then due to meet on Tuesday, 3 and Wednesday, 4 November to decide the Selic.
The estimate does not mean credit is shrinking, and it does not predict the rate decision. The presidential runoff on Sunday, 25 October falls between the estimate and both dates.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Febraban?
Febraban is the Brazilian Federation of Banks, the trade body of the country’s lenders. Its economics team publishes a monthly credit survey days before the central bank.
Is the 8.3% figure official?
No. It is a Febraban estimate based on a sample of lenders and adjusted by models. The central bank is due to publish official data on 29 October.
How much did new lending fall?
Febraban estimates new loans should fall 3.2% in September from August. Against September 2025 they should be up 5.6% per working day.
What is the Selic rate?
The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, set by the central bank. It has stood at 13.75% since 17 September.
Why does this matter for US investors?
New York-listed Brazilian banks such as Itaú, Bradesco and Nubank earn money from lending. Slower loan growth and weaker household credit quality can affect their results.
Sources: Febraban, Pesquisa Especial de Crédito, September 2026 (press version); Poder360, 22 October; Banco Central do Brasil, SGS series 20539 (credit stock) and 432 (Selic target); Toro Investimentos, Copom calendar 2026; Investidor10, Copom 2026 calendar; Polymarket, Bank of Brazil decision in November market (queried 23 October 2026, 2:54 a.m. ET); Exchange rates, open.er-api.com; US Securities and Exchange Commission, company tickers list (all accessed 23 October 2026).